February 11-12, 2006 Snowstorm: Initial Estimates

[donsutherland1]

At this point in time, I believe a large portion of the U.S. East Coast extending from Washington, DC to Portland, ME will be facing an appreciable to significant snowfall.

∙ This storm will have a larger impact than I had first anticipated following yesterday's 12z run of the GFS. The rapidly developing low will track off the Delmarva and not along it. Hence, a greater prospect for heavier snows will exist for Philadelphia into New York City.

∙ After having reviewed the 12z guidance, a track between the 2/9 12z GFS and ECMWF looks good and is within the spread I had been relying on since last evening between the 2/8 12z GFS and 2/8 12z ECMWF. The NAM is a westward outlier and its solution has been discounted but not entirely written off.

∙ Mixing issues could extend as far north as New York City, coastal Connecticut, Long Island, Cape Cod, and Nantucket. In Philadelphia and New York City, such mixing will probably not be long-lived.

∙ There is still some uncertainty and, if I had to place odds, a track somewhat farther offshore is probably more likely than one that would more closely resemble the 2/9 12z NAM.

∙ Depending on the storm's exact track, some significant changes might be required for some of the initial estimates e.g., only a small shift to the south and east could bring moderate or greater accumulations to the greater Richmond area.

Initial Snowfall Estimates:

Albany: 3"-7"
Baltimore: 3"-7"
Boston: 8"-14"
Concord: 6"-10"
Hagerstown: 5"-10"
Hartford: 5"-10"
Islip: 3"-7"
New York City: 5"-10"
Newark: 5"-10"
Philadelphia: 4"-8"
Portland: 5"-10"
Providence: 6"-12"
Richmond: 2" or less
Washington, DC:
DCA: 3"-6"
IAD: 3"-7"
Worcester: 8"-14"

[iwantsnow321]

nicley done don!!! I always enjoy reading your posts, and for once this year, my city is actually in there, WHICH MAKES IT EVEN BETTER!!!

[JETSTREAM BOB]

Northeast,Northeast,Northeast....The south is part of the USA also...please report on the south once in awhile.........will we get any snow this weekend?????

[pgoss11]

I know it's frustrating, but in the summer during hurricane season it's the SOUTH, SOUTH, SOUTH. so the winter is our only time for excitement weatherwise

[Tyler]

Northeast,Northeast,Northeast....The south is part of the USA also...please report on the south once in awhile.........will we get any snow this weekend????

You don't have to be smart with him. Just ask nicely.

[Tyler]

Great discussion Don, as always!

Hey jschiltz, Don is giving you 5 to 10 inches in NYC. Lucky! You picked a good time to go up there man!

[MiamiensisWx]

Tyler, may you answer my question in the thread on the upcoming southern cold air?

[Tyler]

Tyler, may you answer my question in the thread on the upcoming southern cold air?

I did.

[tomboudreau]

What do you see in pittsburgh? Are we just on the outside looking in again?

[donsutherland1]

Bob,

If I believed that the Atlanta and Charlotte areas, etc., were to receive more than perhaps some flurries--and I hope later model runs will support such a proposition, because I know that there are people in the Southeast who are starved for snow and it would be nice if some snow fell there--I would definitely post on it, just as I posted my thoughts on the recent Ohio Valley/Ontario storm.

I do believe parts of North Carolina, Tennessee, and northern most GA (probably the higher elevations) might see some snow but the uncertainty in those areas is quite great. Charlotte has some chance but we'll see what the later guidance shows. Western NC has a good chance.

Best wishes.

[donsutherland1]

Tom,

Pittsburgh will probably see 1"-3" maybe a little more if the storm were to track closer to the coast.

[Stephanie]

Northeast,Northeast,Northeast....The south is part of the USA also...please report on the south once in awhile.........will we get any snow this weekend?????

Um, first of all, that's rude. Second of all, the storm is reforming off of the DELMARVA peninsula and he's reporting on the snow totals from as far south as Richmond which will be getting at this time, 2 inches or less. So, I sincerely DOUBT that anything south of Richmond will be getting anything but flurries.

Here's an idea, why don't YOU try a prediction?

[JenyEliza]

Bob,

If I believed that the Atlanta and Charlotte areas, etc., were to receive more than perhaps some flurries--and I hope later model runs will support such a proposition, because I know that there are people in the Southeast who are starved for snow and it would be nice if some snow fell there--I would definitely post on it, just as I posted my thoughts on the recent Ohio Valley/Ontario storm.

I do believe parts of North Carolina, Tennessee, and northern most GA (probably the higher elevations) might see some snow but the uncertainty in those areas is quite great. Charlotte has some chance but we'll see what the later guidance shows. Western NC has a good chance.

Best wishes.

That's us (Atlanta)....always the bridesmaid (cold winter rain), never the bride (snowfall of any kind).

I hate it that we haven't had a decent snowfall here in a couple of years. It's hard to see other areas get snow, year in, year out...and we just get teased with predictions of snow that never happen.

I know this sounds evil...but in a way, it's been kind of oh..interesting to watch people in other parts of the country--who are used to getting snow most winters--finally get a first hand experience with Snow Deprivation Syndrome.

It's not that I begrudge anyone their snow...I don't, and I'm glad more than a few are finally going to get a good storm this weekend. It's well deserved for those who've waited all winter and been patient for the right storm to come along.

It's just that maybe some will finally understand why we Southerners go bonkers over (what to them would be) a light dusting of snow. Being snow starved is basically our normal state....

However, this year *everyone* has joined the south in our misery.

And we all know misery loves company.

That said....

Ya'll enjoy your snow, take lots of pics....and post links to webcams so we can have some fun with you.

*hugs*

Jen

[donsutherland1]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Several quick evening thoughts:

∙ The NAM's colder solution and track reasonably close to the GFS may well be suggesting that the GFS has scored a big victory among the models in holding firmly to its coastal snowstorm solution.

∙ General agreement between the 18z GFS, 2/10 0z NAM, earlier GFS ensembles is now quite good. I believe an out-to-sea track along the lines of the 12z GGEM is probably now an increasingly low risk. Overall, I've liked a compromise between the GFS and ECMWF and that seems to be the ballpark. Anything south and east of the ECMWF seems increasingly unlikely.

∙ With a stronger push of cold air per the NAM's solution, hope is definitely increasing for snow lovers in Richmond down into parts of North Carolina

∙ The NAM indicates that snowfall rates could reach 1"/1.5" per hour in Philadelphia, Newark, NYC, among other locations.

Revised figures will probably be posted at some point tomorrow. Right now, if anything, figures are more likely to be revised upward than downward.

P.S. Jen, I feel for you without the snow. Hopefully, things can change and sooner rather than later.

[donsutherland1]

Some additional estimates where I believe there will be at least some accumulations of snow:

Asheville: 1"-3"
Boone: 1"-3"
Chattanooga: 1"-3"
Hickory: 1"-3"
Knoxville: 2"-5"
Lexington: 2"-5"
Nashville: 1"-3"

[WaitingForSiren]

Don is pretty much going the same way I am. I think NYC will see closer to 12 inches, though. Maybe 10.

[Tyler]

For NYC, a foot plus most likely. 0z model runs are very impressive. Then again I have no idea how to forecast snow storms, so I should just shut up now and leave this up to Don.

[jimvb]

Donsutherland1, your predictions seem to imply a map something like this:


Is this what you mean? Numbers are in inches.

[donsutherland1]

I'll be posting revised estimates later Friday. As a general rule, I start out conservatively then increase things as needed. I might be a little high out in Portland/Concord but RIC through NYC might need upward adjustments. Let's see how the 12z data goes.

[Tri-State_1925]

Don, is this expected to be a fast-moving storm or a slower-moving one?

It seems to me that the speed of noreasters are often a more important factor in snowfall totals for interior NE areas than storm track, yet storm duration takes a back seat to storm track. Also, it seems like storm duration is incorrectly forecasted more often than not. I can recall several examples of that going back to the mid-90's. Your thoughts?