Opposite day?

[Jim Cantore]

Is it just me or was this storm seriously underhyped? (or underforcasted if thats even a term)

Forcasts

Philly area: 8-12"
NYC: 8-12"
Baltimore: 6-10"
Boston: 10-15"
Washington DC: 4-8"

actuals

Philly area: 10-16"
NYC: 22-27"
Baltimore: 10-16"
Boston: 14-21"
Washington DC: 7-15"

[WindRunner]

No one was expecting the snow to be as dry as it was in New England, but DC/Balt forecast was on top of things for the most part very early Saturday. Something to note: NYC's radar estimated storm total rainfall wasn't even .75"! That wasn't something that was accounted for in making the forecasts from Phili/Central NJ northward.

[MiamiensisWx]

Interesting that Boston actually seems to have gotten less snow than I expected... hmm...

[Stephanie]

I think they were conservative forecasts, but nothing to sneeze at either. I don't believe that they thought it was going to explode the way it did ( or have an eye for that matter! ).

I remember last year there was a storm that was forecasted to be over a foot and it gave us PERHAPS an inch or two at best.

I think that the forecast that was made before the storm started sent out the right message.

[Tyler]

IMO, the reason it was underhyped is becuase it happened on a weekend, not nearly as meany people going to work or having to travel, so not nearly as big of a deal. Although, now that its NYC biggest snowfall on record, I'd have to say people will now remember this for years to come...

Plus, I don't think anyone could have forecasted 2 feet.

[Tyler]

I remember last year there was a storm that was forecasted to be over a foot and it gave us PERHAPS an inch or two at best.

January '05?

[Jim Cantore]

I remember last year there was a storm that was forecasted to be over a foot and it gave us PERHAPS an inch or two at best.

January '05?

thats nothing

March 4-6 2001

we were supposed to get 25-30" of snow, we got 2 inches of snow, 2 inches of sleet, an inch of freezing rain, and an inch of rain.

angry people in the Philadelphia area ran local "metorologist" John Bolaris out of town with death threats (I swear this is true)

I'm still ticked off about it

then the next big snowstorm the local NBC affiliate forcasted and I quote exactly "Snow until further notice"

[Tyler]

I remember last year there was a storm that was forecasted to be over a foot and it gave us PERHAPS an inch or two at best.

January '05?

thats nothing

March 4-6 2001

we were supposed to get 25-30" of snow, we got 2 inches of snow, 2 inches of sleet, an inch of freezing rain, and an inch of rain.

angry people in the Philadelphia area ran local "metorologist" John Bolaris out of town with death threats (I swear this is true)

I'm still ticked off about it

then the next big snowstorm the local NBC affiliate forcasted and I quote exactly "Snow until further notice"

Wow! How exactly was 25-30 in. forecasted, yet only 2in fell? Storm went farther out to sea than expected? Warmer temps than expected? Or just not enough moisture around?

Wow, thats just crazy...

[Jim Cantore]

I still cant believe they screwed up that badly

In philly we're famous for running sports athletes out of town and booing santa claus but running the weatherman out?

you got to mess up pretty bad

[Stephanie]

I remember last year there was a storm that was forecasted to be over a foot and it gave us PERHAPS an inch or two at best.

January '05?

thats nothing

March 4-6 2001

we were supposed to get 25-30" of snow, we got 2 inches of snow, 2 inches of sleet, an inch of freezing rain, and an inch of rain.

angry people in the Philadelphia area ran local "metorologist" John Bolaris out of town with death threats (I swear this is true)

I'm still ticked off about it

then the next big snowstorm the local NBC affiliate forcasted and I quote exactly "Snow until further notice"

Bolaris though wasn't the only one making that forecast. That had to be the BIGGEST screw up meterology history.

[Jim Cantore]

I remember last year there was a storm that was forecasted to be over a foot and it gave us PERHAPS an inch or two at best.

January '05?

thats nothing

March 4-6 2001

we were supposed to get 25-30" of snow, we got 2 inches of snow, 2 inches of sleet, an inch of freezing rain, and an inch of rain.

angry people in the Philadelphia area ran local "metorologist" John Bolaris out of town with death threats (I swear this is true)

I'm still ticked off about it

then the next big snowstorm the local NBC affiliate forcasted and I quote exactly "Snow until further notice"

Bolaris though wasn't the only one making that forecast. That had to be the BIGGEST screw up meterology history.

Amen to that

Bolaris was a quack anyway

now hes selling his quacked up "professional" "forcast" in NYC

[weathermom]

I remember that one, they canceled school based on the forecast and boy was that a mistake.

This storm they never seemed to have a handle on. The first I saw of it they said going out to sea, nothing to concern us. Then they said looks like a good one,but we still aren't quite sure. Then they got sure. Then yesterday morning they started pulling back again and cutting snowfall forecasts. Then last night they started giving us back the snow. This morning they started upping the forecast more when they realized what it was.

I should just learn to read Don Sutherland's forecasts and ignore the TV guys that get paid to have white teeth.

[Coredesat]

As far as this area is concerned, the storm was OVERforecasted. We didn't even get 10% of what was forecast (never mind that the HPC report says Richmond got 3" - there was barely an inch of snow here, and it's hard to measure it when it melts as soon as it touches any surface).

[Stephanie]

I remember that one, they canceled school based on the forecast and boy was that a mistake.

This storm they never seemed to have a handle on. The first I saw of it they said going out to sea, nothing to concern us. Then they said looks like a good one,but we still aren't quite sure. Then they got sure. Then yesterday morning they started pulling back again and cutting snowfall forecasts. Then last night they started giving us back the snow. This morning they started upping the forecast more when they realized what it was.

I should just learn to read Don Sutherland's forecasts and ignore the TV guys that get paid to have white teeth.

[Jim Cantore]

I remember that one, they canceled school based on the forecast and boy was that a mistake.

This storm they never seemed to have a handle on. The first I saw of it they said going out to sea, nothing to concern us. Then they said looks like a good one,but we still aren't quite sure. Then they got sure. Then yesterday morning they started pulling back again and cutting snowfall forecasts. Then last night they started giving us back the snow. This morning they started upping the forecast more when they realized what it was.

I should just learn to read Don Sutherland's forecasts and ignore the TV guys that get paid to have white teeth.

aint that the truth

[wxmann_91]

The mesoscale banding, thundersnow, and snowfall rates with this storm were unprecedented and unforeseen. That is the only reason why this storm dropped so much snow. It just so happens that the track of the low (right over the Benchmark of 40N 70W) put the heaviest band over NYC, where it stalled for three hours. Those three hours added a foot of accumulation.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Is it just me or was this storm seriously underhyped? (or underforcasted if thats even a term)

Forcasts

Philly area: 8-12"
NYC: 8-12"
Baltimore: 6-10"
Boston: 10-15"
Washington DC: 4-8"

actuals

Philly area: 10-16"
NYC: 22-27"
Baltimore: 10-16"
Boston: 14-21"
Washington DC: 7-15"

I have seen a worse forecast than this. When I lived in Raleigh, NC in 2000...they were calling for 1-4". The next morning I awoke to 24" at my house and 20.3" at the airport. All of this snow fell within 12-16 hrs. too. It was an incredible sight; especially for Raleigh.

[Jim Cantore]

Is it just me or was this storm seriously underhyped? (or underforcasted if thats even a term)

Forcasts

Philly area: 8-12"
NYC: 8-12"
Baltimore: 6-10"
Boston: 10-15"
Washington DC: 4-8"

actuals

Philly area: 10-16"
NYC: 22-27"
Baltimore: 10-16"
Boston: 14-21"
Washington DC: 7-15"

I have seen a worse forecast than this. When I lived in Raleigh, NC in 2000...they were calling for 1-4". The next morning I awoke to 24" at my house and 20.3" at the airport. All of this snow fell within 12-16 hrs. too. It was an incredible sight; especially for Raleigh.

The Carolina Crusher January 25th 2000 correct?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Is it just me or was this storm seriously underhyped? (or underforcasted if thats even a term)

Forcasts

Philly area: 8-12"
NYC: 8-12"
Baltimore: 6-10"
Boston: 10-15"
Washington DC: 4-8"

actuals

Philly area: 10-16"
NYC: 22-27"
Baltimore: 10-16"
Boston: 14-21"
Washington DC: 7-15"

I have seen a worse forecast than this. When I lived in Raleigh, NC in 2000...they were calling for 1-4". The next morning I awoke to 24" at my house and 20.3" at the airport. All of this snow fell within 12-16 hrs. too. It was an incredible sight; especially for Raleigh.

The Carolina Crusher January 25th 2000 correct?

yes, that is correct. I happened to live in the heart of the area that got the most snow too. It was the largest snowstorm in Raleigh in 107 years...but was completely a surprise. Also, since the city was not prepared for such a storm, most of it was shut down for 3+ days, and local schools were closed for 9 days!

[terstorm1012]

This storm was underhyped along the coast and overhyped in some inland locations.

I expected a foot and got 7.5"...not shabby...but the cutoff line set up just north and west of me.

Offtopic, but bolaris left philly cause of personality conflicts with NBC10's general manager....and he's from NYC anyway so he wanted to go home.

I grew up with him as my forecaster on TV and always found him talented...