God PLEASE let THIS verify!!

[azsnowman]

I am NOT getting ANY HOPES up at ALL UNTIL I actually SEE precipitation FALLING from the sky..........119 days and counting for Phoenix without rain!!!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BASICALLY LOOK DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST HAS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ON SUNDAY...A COLD LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS SHOWN TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS IN TURN SHARPENS THE TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM OFF THE PACIFIC STARTING SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME THOUGH THE MOST IMPORTANT WEATHER WILL BE THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

[azsnowman]

Before any of this happens.......we have to deal with the WIND and with the February Fire at 3600 acres with only 25% containment, this is NOT good


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

FXUS65 KFGZ 131007 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 300 AM MST MON FEB 13 2006 .SYNOPSIS...TODAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. VERY STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHLAND. COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

[Jim Cantore]

I'll do a rain dance for you

you need rain bad 119 days is ridiculous

[Jim Cantore]

oh no

I accidently did a hurricane dance

[CentralFlGal]

oh no

I accidently did a hurricane dance

You're grounded for the hurricane dance, Floyd. Go to your room

But I'll join you in the rain dance for Az. This is just too long to go without relief in sight.

[Jim Cantore]

I'll add the rain dance with the Blizzard dance to try to make the great beast turn around and pound us again

[LTHLBLU]

I hope it does too, you guys need moisture badly

[WaitingForSiren]

Yeah, and if this storm somehow manages to miss you, it should stay rather wet for a long while over the southwest. CPC has above normal precip for the long range for arizona...and I agree....with the big arctic blast coming, the storms will detour further south over the southwest.

[Stephanie]

Yeah, and if this storm somehow manages to miss you, it should stay rather wet for a long while over the southwest. CPC has above normal precip for the long range for arizona...and I agree....with the big arctic blast coming, the storms will detour further south over the southwest.

I hope that does verify!! Keeping everything crossed!

[azsnowman]

Keep UP the dances but THIS ain't GOOD, not good at ALL.......the "February Fire" is only 35% contained and now THIS

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
718 AM MST MON FEB 13 2006

AZZ004>018-037>040-140658-
BLACK MESA AREA-CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
COCONINO PLATEAU-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN APACHE CO-
LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN COCONINO CO-
LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN NAVAJO CO-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF 264-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS 264 NORTH-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
718 AM MST MON FEB 13 2006


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA..

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH ARE PROBABLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE
STATE LATE WEDNESDAY. THESE WINDS WILL IMPACT FIRE WEATHER AND MAY
HAMPER TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA.

[Aslkahuna]

The CPC outlooks I saw had precip here in the 8-14 day period- however, down here it's foolhardy to place one's faith in any outlook that far out. Initially, it appears the most energy will be in the northern branch which does nothing for us except bump up the winds.

Steve

[wxmann_91]

Yeah, and if this storm somehow manages to miss you, it should stay rather wet for a long while over the southwest. CPC has above normal precip for the long range for arizona...and I agree....with the big arctic blast coming, the storms will detour further south over the southwest.

Oh wait... I jinxed it. The GFS will start showing a huge ridge rebuilding over the western U.S. starting from the 12Z runs.

[azsnowman]

I don't know what to think and no one else does either.........we'll just have to wait and see and in the mean time hope to HADES some NIMROD does NOT throw a cigarette out their car window with the winds!

Dennis

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz




FXUS65 KFGZ 140941 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 240 AM MST TUE FEB 14 2006 .SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS BEHIND THIS FRONT THURSDAY...AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...BIG STORY THIS MORNING IS THE IMPENDING PATTERN SHIFT DUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEST LATER THIS WEEK...AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST PART OF THE SHIFT WILL TAKE THE FORM OF A STRONG AND COLD TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL INCREASE SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER ARIZONA TODAY...AND IN EARNEST WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL VERY LIKELY EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MANY PLACES. WE WILL DEFER THE ACTUAL ADVISORY TO THE DAY SHIFT...BUT WE ARE ALREADY HITTING THE WIND WORDING FAIRLY HARD IN THE ZONES. THE INITIAL TROUGH WILL BE MAINLY DRY AS MOISTURE IS NON-EXISTENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...BUT FRONTAL DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WRING OUT A FEW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER THE FIRST SYSTEM...A MORE STABLE WEST COAST TROUGH/EAST COAST RIDGE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY...AND WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN MAY TAP INTO THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NEAR HAWAII AND COULD LEAD TO A WET PATTERN OVER ARIZONA. FOR NOW...WE HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALONG WITH CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS...AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION TO THESE CONCERNS...VERY WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO LEAD TO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...SEE PHXRFWFGZ FOR DETAILS. PETERSON. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER 18Z TODAY...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 20S. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FWX WATCH ZONES FROM 12 PM MST UNTIL 7 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR FWX ZONES 118...AS WELL AS 116/117 BELOW 6000 FEET. &&

[azsnowman]

AND WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN MAY TAP INTO THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NEAR HAWAII AND COULD LEAD TO A WET PATTERN OVER ARIZONA.

LET'S HOPE LIKE HADES this DOES happen

[Cookiely]

AND WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN MAY TAP INTO THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NEAR HAWAII AND COULD LEAD TO A WET PATTERN OVER ARIZONA.

LET'S HOPE LIKE HADES this DOES happen

I'm praying for you to get some rain.

[jax]

I'll do a rain dance for you

you need rain bad 119 days is ridiculous

it is a desert though...

[azsnowman]

I'll do a rain dance for you

you need rain bad 119 days is ridiculous

it is a desert though...

NEGATIVE!!! I've said it once and I'll say it again I am at "7102" FEET in elevation, look at map, pull it up on Google......it "used" to look like the Colorado Rockies before this drought hit and every single Ponderosa Pine, Colorado Blue Spruce and Douglas Firs started dying

Dennis

[azsnowman]

BTW......this system IS a "Bust O' Rama

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

.VERY COLD AND DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL RELAX THURSDAY...BUT WILL RETURN AGAIN FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. THIS NEXT SYSTEM MAY TAP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL MOISTURE POOL CENTERED AROUND 125W...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE DRIED UP THIS PLUME....AND FORCED IT FARTHER SOUTH WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW TO OUR NORTH.


As I've said, I do not expect ANY moisture what so EVER until NEXT fall.......that will make 280 DAYS!

Dennis

[azsnowman]

I'll do a rain dance for you

you need rain bad 119 days is ridiculous

it is a desert though...

Here's a link to the local area.......now tell ME I live in a desert

http://www.wmonline.com/attract/Asforest.htm

[Scorpion]

Its beautiful land. It was a winter wonderland last time I visited in March 2003. Unbelievable that now its dry and there fires starting to occur .