What wll next weekend bring??

[cheezyWXguy]

According to AFD's, Computer models, and some of the other forum topics, there is the possibilty of a snow/ice storm this coming weekend in most of the plains states...

[Tyler]

I think there will be a potential for ice in northern Texas, but it won't be cold enough at all levels to support snow. You'll need to watch this, things could get really interesting. Not saying there is going to be a major ice storm, but there is potential...

[cheezyWXguy]

Tyler,Is there even a remote possibility that a few flakes of snow could also mix in with the ice/ freezing rain

[Tyler]

Tyler,Is there even a remote possibility that a few flakes of snow could also mix in with the ice/ freezing rain

Of course, but it won't be much. Right now, the first step is to see if an icing event will really happen. At this time, it looks like it could. The potential is there, but we need a few more model runs to pinpoint exactly what will happen. By Wednesday or Thursday, we should have a pretty good idea!

[cheezyWXguy]

YAY!!! I hope it happens!!!lol I havent seen a decent snowstorm since Christmas 2004 and that wasnt even that big...we only got about 3 inches

[Tyler]

I don't think you will see much snow though. The main concern IMO is freezing rain.

[cheezyWXguy]

So when do you think it will actually come into the Dallas metro area?Saturday, Sunday, Friday nite...

[jkt21787]

The pattern setting up as indicated by the GFS and Euro highly support an ice situation or perhaps ice storm over the Southern Plains and the Southeast/TN Valley.

Remember not to focus on the exact 2m temp GFS is indicating as well as the QPF, as they both can be horrific at this range. Pattern recognition is key in this situation at this time.

Honestly, the pattern set up is quite similar to the events in Feb 1994 before the major ice storm in the Southeast. A significant warm up in the week before (in the 70s), then the arctic front moves south and stalls, split flow pattern, perfect overrunning situation.

This is something to closely watch, but not get overly concerned about yet.

[aggiecutter]

This is the classic setup for a Northern Texas icing event. Shallow dense cold air overrun by moisture. The GFS is hanging the cold air up in Central Oklahoma and Northern Arkansas, but the model often times in these situations doesn't take the density of the air into consideration. This will probably be a wait and see type of situation that will be determined by how far south the cold air drains. Based on past experience with this type of setup, I'd say anyone northwest of a Longview-Austin line could be in for a significant icing event.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml

And, this time there is a very cold pool of air in Canada...

http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag226.html

[cheezyWXguy]

Is there a good chance that we will be below freezing so we can have some kind of accumulation? ( just as one of those 1st guess questoins)

[Tyler]

The pattern setting up as indicated by the GFS and Euro highly support an ice situation or perhaps ice storm over the Southern Plains and the Southeast/TN Valley.

Remember not to focus on the exact 2m temp GFS is indicating as well as the QPF, as they both can be horrific at this range. Pattern recognition is key in this situation at this time.

Honestly, the pattern set up is quite similar to the events in Feb 1994 before the major ice storm in the Southeast. A significant warm up in the week before (in the 70s), then the arctic front moves south and stalls, split flow pattern, perfect overrunning situation.

This is something to closely watch, but not get overly concerned about yet.

Nice catch. I was thinking of Feb 1994 as well. This pattern also reminds me of Feb 1979. Interesting times ahead!

[cheezyWXguy]

I dont remember 1994 storm very well...can anyone fill me in on some details

[jkt21787]

I dont remember 1994 storm very well...can anyone fill me in on some details

The ice storm in 94 mainly affected the SE (AR, TN, MS, AL, GA) but it was one of their biggest. It affected the Memphis area greatly. Here is a presentation from the NWS Memphis on ice storms and their societal impact, largely centered on the ice storm in 94.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/presentatio ... ffects.htm

[plainsman]

i think the worst ice/snow event in North Texas that ive seen was on thanksgiving of 93 when probably 3 inches of snow fell and on to of that there was about 3 inches of solid ice.... the roads were literally like ice skating rinks... i was playing ice hockey on the roads... doesnt anyone remember the annual thanksgiving ice bowl when the dolphins played at Dallas in 93 and leon lett slipped in the ice and snow and cost Dallas the game. that was hilarious... lol....

[Tyler]

i think the worst ice/snow event in North Texas that ive seen was on thanksgiving of 93 when probably 3 inches of snow fell and on to of that there was about 3 inches of solid ice.... the roads were literally like ice skating rinks... i was playing ice hockey on the roads... doesnt anyone remember the annual thanksgiving ice bowl when the dolphins played at Dallas in 93 and leon lett slipped in the ice and snow and cost Dallas the game. that was hilarious... lol....

Man, I remember that! That was a fun game to watch becuase it was so rare to see ice on Thanksgiving!!

[gboudx]

i think the worst ice/snow event in North Texas that ive seen was on thanksgiving of 93 when probably 3 inches of snow fell and on to of that there was about 3 inches of solid ice.... the roads were literally like ice skating rinks... i was playing ice hockey on the roads... doesnt anyone remember the annual thanksgiving ice bowl when the dolphins played at Dallas in 93 and leon lett slipped in the ice and snow and cost Dallas the game. that was hilarious... lol....

There was a similar event in 2003. We got 2-3" of sleet/snow, then there was freezing rain on top of it. Like you say, the roads were literally iced over. I have pics of it.

[cheezyWXguy]

Ya, gboudx, I remember that ice storm too. In west plano where I live, we picked up a good 4 in...I couldnt find the curbs in my street because the ice was so high...I didnt have a powere outage at my house...but my fire alarms kept doing that(they always do that in the cold. I have no idea why

[cheezyWXguy]

^^^Kept going off...not "doing that" as I accidently said above

[aggiecutter]

The Texarkana local forcast is mentioning freezing rain for this area on Sunday. Given that their forcast is based a lot on the GFS, I would not be surprised if the freezing rain started on friday night and lasted off and on all weekend as disturbances move a long the jetstream.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... 3&map.y=89

[cheezyWXguy]

The Texarkana local forcast is mentioning freezing rain for this area on Sunday. Given that their forcast is based a lot on the GFS, I would not be surprised if the freezing rain started on friday night and lasted off and on all weekend as disturbances move a long the jetstream.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.p ... 3&map.y=89

COOL! It looks each forecast is colder than the last...but ya I think there maybe some freezing rain on Friday nite but I dont think the real action is until Sunday(tell me if I'm rong about the sunday part)