ct snow report accuracy

[philipc]

I live in Fairfield, CT 06824. Reading reports like this: http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&myadc=0&article=7 are confusing me. We had a max of 14" at my house and anywhere else in town, and the next morning the snow had compressed to 10" when we measured it. A friend living in New York City was saying that they got a lot of snow, but nowhere near the 27" being reported. I go to school in New Hampshire, and I drove on Sunday night from Fairfield to Manchester, through Nashua. Nashua and Manchester had a max of 5" on the ground. So where are these numbers coming from? Sorry for repeating myself so much, I'm tired. But is it because the snow is so fluffy? Or is there inaccurate reporting going on? I thought originally that it was just that the numbers were early/first reports, but they've persisted. Any explainations will be appreciated. Thanks

Philip

[WaitingForSiren]

Yeah, seemed odd to me too. especially since other parts of nyc only reported 15 inches...odd.

[Tyler]

Yeah, seemed odd to me too. especially since other parts of nyc only reported 15 inches...odd.

What are you talking about? Other major airports around NYC reported in excess of 20in. Where do you get this 15 inches? This was the biggest snowstorm in NYC history.

A pro met who works for the Upton NWS confirmed the record amount of snowfall in Central Park on another forum. I don't think he is lying.

[Brent]

Look at all the 20"+ amounts reported...

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
448 PM EST MON FEB 13 2006

<snip>

...ESSEX COUNTY...
ESSEX COUNTY 21.8 420 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
MONTCLAIR 21.8 900 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
WEST ORANGE 21.0 200 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NEWARK 20.7 1255 PM 2/12 AIRPORT ASOS
SOUTH ORANGE 18.0 1000 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
WEST CALDWELL 17.6 800 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER
BELLEVILLE 17.4 600 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER
CEDAR GROVE 17.1 815 PM 2/12 PUBLIC

...HUDSON COUNTY...
HOBOKEN 20.7 350 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER
JERSEY CITY 20.0 355 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER
HARRISON 17.5 630 PM 2/12 NWS CO-OP

...PASSAIC COUNTY...
WEST PATERSON 20.0 300 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
WEST PATERSON 17.0 600 PM 2/12 OEM
HAWTHORNE 15.5 300 PM 2/12 PRIVATE METEOROLOGIST
CHARLOTTEBURG 9.5 700 PM 2/12 NWS COOP

...UNION COUNTY...
RAHWAY 27.0 600 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
ROSELLE 24.6 1200 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER
CRANFORD 20.6 720 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
GARWOOD 18.0 655 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
HILLSIDE 17.0 820 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER
UNION 16.0 130 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER

NEW YORK

...BRONX COUNTY...
BRONX 24.5 400 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
WESTCHESTER 23.9 400 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER
PARKCHESTER 20.4 500 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER
WOODLAWN 17.0 1200 PM 2/12

...KINGS COUNTY...
BROOKLYN MARINE PARK 19.5 400 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
FLATLANDS 19.0 430 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER
MIDWOOD 18.7 400 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER
SUNSET PARK 18.5 500 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
SHEEPSHEAD BAY 18.0 600 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER
BROADWAY JUNCTION 17.0 1215 PM 2/12

...NASSAU COUNTY...
GREAT NECK 23.6 845 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
CARLE PLACE 20.0 1150 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER
WOODBURY 20.0 440 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
MUTTONTOWN 18.6 510 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER
BELLMORE 17.8 500 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
FARMINGDALE 17.5 600 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER
SYOSSET 16.0 330 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER
EAST MEADOW 15.2 500 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
MASSAPEQUA PARK 14.0 700 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NEW HYDE PARK 14.0 1200 PM 2/12
HICKSVILLE 13.7 1100 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER
OCEANSIDE 13.1 550 PM 2/12 NWS COOP
PLAINVIEW 13.0 1245 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER
SYOSSET WOODBURY 11.5 700 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
LYNBROOK 11.0 230 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER
LIDO BEACH 9.5 100 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...NEW YORK COUNTY...
COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY 27.0 741 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
CENTRAL PARK 26.9 700 PM 2/12 ZOO
CHINATOWN 24.7 315 PM 2/12 PUBLIC

...QUEENS COUNTY...
ASTORIA 26.0 600 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
NYC/LA GUARDIA 25.4 655 PM 2/12 AIRPORT ASOS
FLUSHING 19.9 545 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER
RICHMOND HILL 19.5 430 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
FAR ROCKAWAY 17.5 530 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER
FAR ROCKAWAY 16.8 430 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER
NYC/JFK ARPT 16.7 700 PM 2/12 AIRPORT ASOS

...RICHMOND COUNTY...
CLOVE LAKES PARK 22.0 741 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
CASTLETON CORNERS 20.0 400 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
ELTINGVILLE 16.6 500 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
TRAVIS 15.0 355 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
NEW ROCHELLE 24.5 757 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
POUND RIDGE 24.0 725 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
YONKERS 23.9 400 PM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER
EASTCHESTER 23.2 700 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
KATONAH 22.0 500 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
WHITE PLAINS 21.5 500 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
HASTINGS-ON-HUDSON 20.0 700 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
RYE BROOK 20.0 500 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
BRONXVILLE 19.8 300 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
MOUNT KISCO 19.5 500 PM 2/12 TRAINED WX OBSERVER
NORTH SALEM 19.0 736 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
ARMONK 18.5 500 PM 2/12 PUBLIC
CROTON-ON-HUDSON 16.0 200 PM 2/12 CROTON-ON-HUDSON DPW
GOLDENS BRIDGE 16.0 1150 AM 2/12 SKYWARN SPOTTER

[Tyler]

Thank you Brent for posting that!

[therock1811]

The snow probably compressed under its own weight at your house. Also, it may be a local variation such as what happens in thunderstorms...I know it happened here because I had 1" of snow and someone else in my city reported that they had only½ ".

[philipc]

When something is listed as public, what's that mean? I'm not trying to be a conspiracy theorist or something, but these sorts of reports have always seemed accurate in the past. My friend goes to Columbia, and said there was no way it was 27". The front page of the New York Times was talking about the records broken as well, I guess I just don't understand why the storm seems like it wasn't very bad, and why the numbers seem inflated. Has anybody else come across this? Or am I nuts? Somebody back me up with their personal experience of the storm vs reports for their area

[Tyler]

When something is listed as public, what's that mean? I'm not trying to be a conspiracy theorist or something, but these sorts of reports have always seemed accurate in the past. My friend goes to Columbia, and said there was no way it was 27". The front page of the New York Times was talking about the records broken as well, I guess I just don't understand why the storm seems like it wasn't very bad, and why the numbers seem inflated. Has anybody else come across this? Or am I nuts? Somebody back me up with their personal experience of the storm vs reports for their area

When you have that many reports of 20+ in. from the public and OFFICIAL airports who have very specific guidlines when recording snow who also recording 20+ in., and you don't believe them, I'd say your nuts.

[therock1811]

When something is listed as public, what's that mean? I'm not trying to be a conspiracy theorist or something, but these sorts of reports have always seemed accurate in the past. My friend goes to Columbia, and said there was no way it was 27". The front page of the New York Times was talking about the records broken as well, I guess I just don't understand why the storm seems like it wasn't very bad, and why the numbers seem inflated. Has anybody else come across this? Or am I nuts? Somebody back me up with their personal experience of the storm vs reports for their area

Public means that citizens are making that report.

[wxmann_91]

Yeah, seemed odd to me too. especially since other parts of nyc only reported 15 inches...odd.

What are you talking about? Other major airports around NYC reported in excess of 20in. Where do you get this 15 inches? This was the biggest snowstorm in NYC history.

A pro met who works for the Upton NWS confirmed the record amount of snowfall in Central Park on another forum. I don't think he is lying.

Yes, Mike Ekster was working all night during the snowstorm. This is what Mr. Ekster wrote.

Wes has already make a great post about the event. Anyway, I worked the entire event at the Upton office - issuing occasional mesoscale updates to the afd every 2 to 4 hours. The feature I really keyed in on was the 700 mb warm frontal boundary as the cause for the major snow banding. As the 700 mb low to the south of Long Island deepened rapidly, the warm frontal boundary at and around 700mb tightened with 50-70 kt winds from the SE moving up the sloped frontal boundary while northerly winds of much lesser magnitude were found well to the nw of the front. The frontogenesis was very impressive. There was instability as well (whether purely upright or conditional symmetric - probably dominated by pure upright/gravitational instability as slantwise is often too weak to produce thunder). Heavy snow banding usually forms when you have a decent amount of instability (or at least low stability) as well as strong frontogenesis. The frontogenesis acts to focus whatever instability is present. The heaviest snowfall banding will occur just to the NW of the frontal zone (since a front is sloped). When you have UVV's of the oreder of 30-50 microbars placed right in the -12 to -18C zone, massive amounts of dendrites will form at relatively high ratios. This is what happened yesterday. See attached illustration at 700mb (not included).

I was constantly on the phone with the folks measuring the snowfall at Central Park, making sure they were measuring correctly, sweeping the board at the appropriate times, etc. I also did a water equivalent analysis as well as phoned a few friends in the nyc area that according to my radar were directly underneath the heaviest reflectivities of the band. I told them how exactly to measure snow and they did. A few of them measured 28-29" in parts of the city, and water eqivs supported. I made sure I had all my ducks in a row before I sent out the record announcement in one of my AFDs. Believe me, things were checked, double checked, and triple checked.

Everything checked out and was done right. The 26.9" record at Central Park is LEGIT. For you naysayers out there with nothing better to do, that is spelled L-E-G-I-T. With mesoscale banding, you will have intense convective cells on a local level that can easily dump that much snow, and they did.

Mike

Seriously, if you can't trust the NWS forecaster who was working during the height of the event, then who can you trust?

[Brent]

A VERY heavy snow band(one of the heaviest ever seen) set up and parked over NYC for hours Sunday Morning... it moved rather quickly through the areas outside of Manhattan and thus, didn't snow as much, which is why you have significantly lower amounts.