Weekend Northern Plains System

[chizniz16]

I am surprised we don't have a thread on this already, so post it here. It looks like northen Iowa and southern Minnesota could see an ice event. Moderate rain is possible in Iowa. It looks like all snow for the twin cities and eastward into wisconson, where there is a possibility of two to six inches of snow.

[chizniz16]

Took model down

[WaitingForSiren]

The 06z GFS shows a big snowstorm over MN next week now...maybe that will verify =)

[chizniz16]

Took Model down

[chizniz16]

The 06z GFS shows a big snowstorm over MN next week now...maybe that will verify =)

Yes I just saw that, that looks great!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p06_084l.gif

[chizniz16]

Took model down

[chizniz16]

Took model down

[chizniz16]

This system has more potential than first thought. I also think the local mets in MN are underestimating it. This system will bring in rain and freezing rain to much of northern Iowa and extreme southern Minnesota. It will then make the change to all snow as it passes over extreme southern Minnesota, the change could come earlier for southeast Minnesota depending on how fast temps drop. the GFS has been fairly consistant with this today, showing the Twin cities picking up 3 inches in a band that moved directly eastward into eastern Wisconsin. That band should increase as it moves eastword. However tonights 00z NAM shows an even more intresting situation. It has locally heavy ammount of snow possible for southern and southeastern Minnesota, also moderate snow for northeastern Iowa. This is not at all a strong low, but with all the moisture in the air, it will have something to work with. I think the 00z GFS will have the best input on this system, so will watch for that tonight. Very likely freezing rain event in northern Iowa and southern Minnesota that could be extremly dangerous with the ammounts of precip possible. NWS has only put out a hazardous weather statement and a winter weather advisories so far. The advisory is only for northeastern Iowa and northwestern Ill. I expect some new advisories out in the next hour or two. I think NWS is being too conservative in possible accumulations.

[chizniz16]

Tonights 00Z NAM...WOW...will have to let 00z GFS confirm....