Texas winter weather thread - Cold snap next week

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is my last post from the U.S. weather forum "SE Texas weather thread":

Latest from the 0Z GFS:

Thursday morning (daybreak) = 66F

Thursday afternoon = 42F

Thursday evening = 34F

Friday morning (daybreak) = 27F

Friday afternoon = 45F

Friday evening = 35F

Saturday morning (daybreak) = 32F

The 0Z GFS does indicate that this is a shallow airmass though, because it (unlike other runs) keeps the 850mb temps. fairly warm over Houston. It seems like it may be having problems, however, because it also speeds the cold air out of here much faster than previous runs and it completely disintegrates the high pressure (from about 1050mb down to below 1025mb) within a day or two. This model run should probably be thrown out for now as it looks unrealistic given the current strength of the high and the strength of the cold up in western Canada. It also makes no sense that the 18Z shows 21F for Friday night while the 0Z shows us barely reaching 32F. I guess we will still have to wait a bit more for some consistancy...

One thing that is interesting though is that the 0Z GFS still shows wintery precipitation for Friday morning (sleet mixed with snow). However, since the overall run seems to be having issues, I will still not buy into this yet.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think its hour 114 that it shows freezing temps for me and precip, maybe frozen...hopefully dallas can get a light snow shower or two in late november

[Extremeweatherguy]

Also, here are a few links:

Alaskan temperatures: http://www.weatherunderground.com/US/Re ... ature.html

NCEP models: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

weather images: http://www.weatherimages.org/index.html#general

HPC: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

CPC: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/

SPC: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow! I know this will likely not play out, but it is sure interesting to see it in the forecast! This is the weather.com forecast for Day 10 (Dec. 4th) in north Houston:

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/b ... 9?dayNum=9

If it has already been changed, this is what it DID say:

High - 49
Low - 44 (36 in the morning)
Rain and snow showers

[Yankeegirl]

It still says that.... I just checked... Go Figure!!

[Yankeegirl]

Though I think they need to do something, cause I am not very far from you, and there is a huge temperature difference!!

Spring Forecast= 49°/44° 40% Rain Snow Mix
Houston Forecast (77084)= 65°/46° 30% Rain
Austin Forecast= 66°/46° 20% Rain
Dallas Forecast= 59°/44° 0%
Denver, Co= 46°/30° 10% Rain

It just doesnt make sence.....

[Ptarmigan]

wow! I know this will likely not play out, but it is sure interesting to see it in the forecast! This is the weather.com forecast for Day 10 (Dec. 4th) in north Houston:

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/b ... 9?dayNum=9

If it has already been changed, this is what it DID say:

High - 49
Low - 44 (36 in the morning)
Rain and snow showers

Weird. I looked at the NWS forecast and there is no indication of snowshowers or even rain. This will be an interesting weather pattern.

[CajunMama]

There's already a thread about all this...couldn't this have continued in it?

[Extremeweatherguy]

What I find very interesting is the fact that the 6Z GFS continues to show winter precip. reaching Houston! This has now become a trend it seems. We will have to see if the NWS eventually picks up on it for our area, because if the models are right then Thursday afternoon and Friday morning will be wintery. In fact, the 6Z GFS shows an almost 6 hr. period of potential winter weather...starting as sleet around midnight Friday and ending as snow Friday morning. It also is showing accumulations just to our north.

[cheezyWXguy]

well see...should get a good hold on this by tomorrow or tuesday...I expect confidence to go up on winter precip because i definately think its possible for dallas i cant see getting above 40 and friday above 36 or so

[Extremeweatherguy]

BTW, since I havn't posted them yet, here are the surface temperatures for IAH from the 6Z GFS:

Thursday morning (daybreak) = 65F

Thursday afternoon = 80F

Thursday evening = 40F

Friday morning (daybreak) = 29F

Friday afternoon = 41F

Friday evening = 34F

Saturday morning (daybreak) = 26F

Saturday afternoon = 47F

I think this run is much more realistic than the 0Z, but I think it is too slow. If this run is correct the front won't reach us until late Thursday afternoon (notice the drop from 80F>>>40F), but from what I am hearing the drop SHOULD take place early Thursday morning (about 12 hrs. earlier).

[double D]

If those number end up verifiying, then the NWS need to really start lowering thier highs for ya'll. I beleive I saw a forecasted high of 57 for Friday and the numbers you have is 41. That is a big differrence.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If those number end up verifiying, then the NWS need to really start lowering thier highs for ya'll. I beleive I saw a forecasted high of 57 for Friday and the numbers you have is 41. That is a big differrence.

It was 57F yesterday, but they are starting to lower that some. This morning's forecast is for 53F (and sunny skies) on Friday. I think the GFS number of 41F is probably taking into account a few more cloudy periods. However, the NWS numbers are likely still a few degrees too high even for sunshine.

[jasons2k]

There's already a thread about all this...couldn't this have continued in it?

I agree - too many threads now on this event.

[Portastorm]

There's already a thread about all this...couldn't this have continued in it?

I agree - too many threads now on this event.

Me three jschlitz... hey Texans, think we can just use one thread to talk about our upcoming arctic blast? I think our respective weather in each area will be of interest to all of us.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This thread is suppose to be like the one in the U.S. weather forum. It is not meant to talk only about this upcoming arctic front, but it is designed instead to be a continuous thread throughout the winter season to talk about all winter weather events in SE Texas. I decided to begin a winter-based thread after vbhoutex posted this commnent in the other SE Texas weather thread:

It looks like it ia about time to start this up in the Winter weather forum. Not trying to shut this off, but we are definitely moving into winter weather now.

Most oF the local OCMs are now calling for this to happen also, thought with varying degrees of intensity(surprise, surprise! NOt!)

[cheezyWXguy]

Weather.com is forecasting snow thursday night for me in plano!!
http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/b ... 3?dayNum=4

[vbhoutex]

tThere is no problem with all of Texas posting in this thread or for that matter any other thread. Even though we do not try to "control" what our members post we don't like to see too many threads on the same subject. If everyone wants this to become the Texas winter weather thread we can fix the tiltle of it accordingly.

[cheezyWXguy]

wgy not just lock all the other threads and leave one? Would that work? just making suggestions

[Portastorm]

Well, I don't wait to rain on EWG's parade (or anyone else for that matter) ... but I know when tropical weather affects our members, I don't see various subregional threads on how the named storm is affecting them.

I would prefer one Texas winter weather thread myself ... but I also don't want to be dictatorial about it.

Whaddya think?