Weekend Blockbuster E Coast Storm

[drezee]

[drezee]

06 z GFS is just as strong...what will 12z bring?

[drezee]

[brunota2003]

What time frame is that? If it is this weekend, then here is what the NWS out of Morehead City, NC is thinking:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MDLS CONT TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE SRT WAVE LIFTING FROM SRN PLAINS TO
OH VLY REGION LATE SAT INTO SUN. RATHER STRONG SFC LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK NEAR OR JUST W OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT WITH STRONG COLD
FRONT SWINGING THOUGH EARLY SUN. BEST RAIN POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
SAT NIGHT WHEN BAND OF DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH UPR JET CROSSES. LATEST PROGS KEEP ERN NC IN WARM SECTOR SO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHC OF TSRA TO FCST SAT NIGHT. WITH LOW TRACKING
JUST TO W PROB WILL LIMIT QPF BUT DO EXPECT A SHORT DURATION BUT
FAIRLY INTENSE BAND OF SHRA. PRECIP WILL END EARLY SUN CST THEN
COLD DRY WX EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E TWRD
THE CST.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Can't squint quite enough to guess whether NYC is snow or rain, but look at this pressure from 12/12/07 GFS (image will change this time tomorrow)

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z Canadian onboard...




European suggests low too far West for snow in Big Cities, but 30 to 35 m/s (almost 70 knots) winds at 850 mb, manly coastal storm.

[ohiostorm]

From the Pittsburgh NWS forecast discussion...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLDER DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. IT IS STILL EARLY, BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SNOW STORM BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IF IT OCCURS THERE WILL BE HEAVY SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW.
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CRITICAL WITH RESPECT
TO PCPN TYPE, PCPN INTENSITY AND SFC WIND STRENGTH. STAY TUNED FOR
THE LATEST IN THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WL THEN BUILD
OVER THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MAY BE
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH TUESDAY.

[terstorm1012]

will this help to begin to end the southeast drought?

[Ed Mahmoud]

will this help to begin to end the southeast drought?

JB thinks this may entrain the remnants of Olga, if that happened, it might help a little.

[RL3AO]

Ice storms, mud slides, tropical storms and noreasters. What a weather week.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like 6Z GFS changes this to rain in NYC, and brings in low level cold air back in before aloft, so a possible snow to rain back to sleet scenario. All/mostly all snow in BOS, about a foot

[Ed Mahmoud]

almost a full day of jury duty (holding baby while wige gets kids from school, 1 hand typing) and nobody adds to possible nyc/bos/phl mondo-snow thread/

[terstorm1012]

I've been workin' all day! .

That Henry guy at Accuweather has my area in his 6-12" slot, actually closer to the 12"-18".

[Ed Mahmoud]

almost a full day of jury duty (holding baby while wige gets kids from school, 1 hand typing) and nobody adds to possible nyc/bos/phl mondo-snow thread/

Both hands again.


Looks like a change to rain in the big cities, which saddens me.

[HURAKAN]

It will be interesting to see how it develops. Now that I took Synoptic Meteorology at FIU I have a much better understanding of frontal cyclogenesis. Before taking the class when talking about mid-latitude weather I was like a fish out of water.

[JBG]

will this help to begin to end the southeast drought?

JB thinks this may entrain the remnants of Olga, if that happened, it might help a little.

Query, if Olga mixes in, what does it do to upper atmosphere temps, and chances of snow with it?

[btangy]

Query, if Olga mixes in, what does it do to upper atmosphere temps, and chances of snow with it?

You bring up an interesting point as some of the models are now showing more of a secondary development off the DelMarVa which seems to have originated at least partially from the remnants of Olga. Olga could provide an extra umph for this upcoming nor'easter, but it'll be small fish compared to the baroclinic energy this nor'easter will harvest as it romps up the coast.

[drezee]

2ft + on 12z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096m.gif

[cpdaman]

968 mb

[drezee]

I think the severe wx is a surprise down south