Plains snowstorm this weekend

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just found out that I might have to head up toward Oklahoma City this Friday/Saturday. Currently, I notice the forecast for the city shows a light rain/snow mix during that period. However, the latest GFS looks much more aggressive and shows a decent snowstorm up there with accumulations of 1-6" across a good portion of the state...

[img]old[/img]

[img]old[/img]

[img]old[/img]

...So, what do the pro mets think about this? Does a significant storm seem possible? Or is this more likely to be a minor event with only a light rain/snow mix for the OKC region? Any input would be greatly appreciated.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well the NWS has decided to bump up the chances a bit this morning and are now calling for a 40-50% chance of rain changing to snow across the OKC region on Saturday. As of now, they believe there will only be small accumulations near downtown, but up north of the city..near the OK/KS border..they are saying up to 3" could fall. It will definitely be interesting to see how this all unfolds in the coming days.

One thing's for sure though. The local news stations up there are all over the place with their current forecasts...

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFS continues to look impressive...

[img]old[/img]

..It seems like a pretty nasty situation could develop Saturday afternoon and evening with rains changing to snow across a good chunk on the state of Oklahoma. Winds also seem like they will get pretty strong with this system.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well it now no longer looks like I will have to be up in OKC this weekend, so I will probably miss this storm. Too bad though, because it was looking more and more likely that a couple of inches would fall up there..especially NW of the city..and I was kind of looking forward to it.

[angelwing]

WWUS43 KDVN 202049
WSWDVN

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
249 PM CST THU DEC 20 2007

...STRONG WINTER STORM TO IMPACT REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...

.A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OKLAHOMA SATURDAY
MORNING WILL REACH NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO PRODUCING A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN...CHANGING TO SNOW AS LOTS
OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES IN. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4
TO LOCALLY 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN
CHANGES TO SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS BY SUNDAY
MORNING AND COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES AND CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW.

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015-016-024-025-MOZ009-010-210500-
/O.NEW.KDVN.WS.A.0009.071222T1800Z-071223T1200Z/
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-MERCER-HENDERSON-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INDEPENDENCE...MANCHESTER...DUBUQUE...
VINTON...CEDAR RAPIDS...ANAMOSA...MAQUOKETA...MARENGO...
IOWA CITY...TIPTON...CLINTON...MUSCATINE...BETTENDORF...
DAVENPORT...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...WAPELLO...FAIRFIELD...
MOUNT PLEASANT...BURLINGTON...KEOSAUQUA....FORT MADISON...
GALENA...FREEPORT...MOUNT CARROLL...STERLING...ROCK FALLS...
MOLINE...ROCK ISLAND...KEWANEE...ALEDO...OQUAWKA...MEMPHIS...
KAHOKA
249 PM CST THU DEC 20 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH VERY INTENSE SNOW
ACCUMULATION RATES IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES AN HOUR POSSIBLE. THE
SNOW MAY FALL SO FAST THAT VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO NEAR
ZERO. IN ADDITION...NW WINDS OF 25 UP TO 40 MPH AND RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY MORNING
WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES AND EXTENDED
PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY. THUNDER SNOW MAY OCCUR LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
WITH THE TIMING OF A RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER A KEY FACTOR ON TOTAL
SNOW AMOUNTS MOST LOCATIONS. CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING AND BLOWING OF
SNOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING COMPOUNDING TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET ...AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT WOULD SERIOUSLY
IMPACT TRAVEL. MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

$$

NICHOLS

[PurdueWx80]

looks like a blizzard across parts of the upper midwest saturday night with that low ~bombing out up lake michigan (a la the NAM and ECMWF). best bet right now would be from central wisconsin to the western U.P. of MI. thinking now that there will also be a 2-4 hour period of near blizzard conditions from eastern iowa and western illinois into southern wisconsin, where thunderstorms will rapidly change rain into heavy snow as the low passes to the north/east.

at least most of this will miss chicago - such a storm would pretty much guarantee about half of the country would end up missing flights home for the holiday.