The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
Overall, the first week in January looks to remain quite wet in the Pacific Northwest. The Desert Southwest could see little or no precipitation through the duration of the period.
During the January 1-7 timeframe, the EPO is forecast to be positive. A sharply negative PNA is likely to slowly rise. Overall, the teleconnection indices favor a generally mild regime for much of the U.S.
Certainly, the objective analogs are doing their part to paint just such a picture. Whether one looks at the GFS, ECM, Canadian, or Superensemble analogs, there is a consensus in favor of warmth. As a caveat, it should be noted that the objective analogs have been overplaying the warmth as of late. Hence, my thinking is cooler than what is implied by the objective analogs.
Finally, beyond the opening week of 2008, even as Presidential campaigning heats up, there are hints that temperatures could cool down. If one examines the latest NCEP ensemble mean 500 mb height anomalies one sees the progression of above normal height anomalies toward Greenland.
NCEP Ensemble Maps are Courtesy of RaleighWX’s GEMPAK program
If that development works out, one could see a colder regime begin to establish itself around January 10 +/- a few days. Still, much can change given how far into the future that is.
As for January as a whole, my thinking is that New England will wind up with near normal readings (the same should hold true for southern Ontario and southern Quebec). The Pacific Northwest will wind up on the cooler side of normal. Even in the Mid-Atlantic region where milder anomalies are likely, there should be sufficient variability, especially if blocking develops, to promote some opportunities for winter weather. What is increasingly likely is that January 2008 will not resemble January 1950 in terms of the magnitude of warm anomalies.
Average Regional Temperature Anomalies (January 1-7, 2008):
Northeast: Somewhat above normal
Mid-Atlantic: Near normal to somewhat above normal
Southeast: Near normal to somewhat above normal
Great Lakes: Somewhat above normal
Northern Plains: Above normal
Central Plains: Above normal
Southern Plains: Above normal
Pacific Northwest: Near normal to somewhat above normal
Southwest/Rest of West Coast: Much above normal
Best Guess of Regional Temperature Anomalies (°F):
Northeast: +1° to +3°
Mid-Atlantic: 0° to +2°
Southeast: 0° to +2°
Great Lakes: +1° to +3°
Northern Plains: +3° to +5°
Central Plains: +3° to +5°
Southern Plains: +3° to +5°
Pacific Northwest: 0° to +2° (coolest on the Coast)
Southwest/Rest of West Coast: +7° to +9° (cooler in California)
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