12/27-28/2007 Snowfall: My Estimates

[donsutherland1]

For several days now, the computer guidance has suggested an inverted trough with a system bringing some precipitation into an increasingly stale cold air mass. Snowfall amounts should not be excessive. Nevertheless, for what it is worth, my estimates for the system are as follows:

Albany: 1"-3"
Boston: 0.5"-1.5" (Boston needs 1.1" to set a new December snowfall record)
Burlington: 1"-3"
Caribou: 2"-4"
Concord: 2"-4"
Hartford: 1" or less
Montreal: 1"-3" (2.5 cm - 7.5 cm)
Portland: 2"-4"
Providence: 0.5" or less
Worcester: 1"-3"

[tropicana]

Toronto also picked up about 2 hours of heavy wet snow late this morning too. Quick slushy accumulations, but the snow was very wet, very picturesque, stuck to trees wish it was 2 days earlier but ah well.

[tropicana]

Thu Dec 27 2007
Toronto ON
A quick-moving snowstorm is being blamed for a 25-car collision that closed a stretch of Highway 400 Thursday morning. (Highway 400 runs north of Toronto north to south)
The snow moved in quickly and began falling heavily along Highway 400 around 10 a.m., reducing visibility and causing slippery conditions, Ontario Provincial Police Sgt. Cam Woolley said. Drivers didn’t adjust for the worsening conditions, and cars began to pile up.

About 25 cars and two tractor-trailers were involved in the northbound lanes between King Rd. and Highway 9, Woolley said. There were minor injuries, but no one was taken to hospital. The road was closed, simply because it was full of “wreckage,” Woolley said.
Plows and salters were out on the roads Thursday morning, but the snow fell too quickly, turning to ice once it hit the well-travelled highway, Woolley said. Drivers need to slow down when conditions take a turn for the worse, he added.
“It hit fast, it hit hard, and those that didn’t adjust paid the price, and so did those (drivers) who were near them,” he said.
“Most of these crashes were from speed.”

-justin-

[donsutherland1]

Verification

7 of the 10 (70%) of the cities fell within the forecast range. The average error for those outside of the forecast range was 0.8". The largest error for those busted forecasts was 1.0".

From 12/26/2007 5:07 pm:

Albany: 1"-3"; Actual: 1.1"; Within range
Boston: 0.5"-1.5"; Actual: Trace; Error: 0.5"
Burlington: 1"-3"; Actual: 2.8"; Within range
Caribou: 2"-4"; Actual: 5.0"; Error: 1.0"
Concord: 2"-4"; Actual: 2.0"; Within range
Hartford: 1" or less; Actual: None; Within range
Montreal: 1"-3" (2.5 cm - 7.5 cm); Actual: 2.0" (5.2 cm); Within range
Portland: 2"-4"; Actual: 2.0"; Within range
Providence: 0.5" or less; Actual: Trace; Within range
Worcester: 1"-3"; Actual: 0.1"; Error: 0.9"