1/1-2/2008 Snowstorm: Initial Estimates

[donsutherland1]

A clipper system will spawn a powerful secondary low just to the south-southeast of Cape Cod. That system will track north-northeastward while intensifying rapidly. It will be passing close to the Maine coast. As a result, Portland will likely see its snow accumulations held down by a changeover to a period of rain. Interior sections of Maine could be blasted by heavy snow and high winds.

My estimates for the upcoming event are as follows:

Albany: 3"-6"
Augusta: 10"-16"
Bangor: 8"-14"
Boston: 1" or less
Burlington: 4"-8"
Caribou: 5"-10"
Concord: 5"-10"
Hartford: 1" or less
Portland: 4"-8"
Worcester: 2"-4"

[donsutherland1]

Verification:

6/10 (60%) of stations verified within their expected range. The average error for the 4 that fell outside their forecast range was 1.2".

From: 12/31/2007 10:51 pm:
Albany: 3"-6"; Actual: 2.5"; Error: 0.5"
Augusta: 10"-16"; Actual: 8.3"; Error: 1.7"
Bangor: 8"-14"; Actual: 6.4"; Error: 1.6"
Boston: 1" or less; Actual: Trace; Within range
Burlington: 4"-8"; Actual: 6.9"; Within range
Caribou: 5"-10"; Actual: 5.1"; Within range
Concord: 5"-10"; Actual: 7.4"; Within range
Hartford: 1" or less; Actual: 2.0"; Error: 1.0"
Portland: 4"-8"; Actual: 5.0"; Within range
Worcester: 2"-4"; Actual: 2.5"; Within range