Unusual Freeze Expected for Much of South Florida?

[gatorcane]

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 022014
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
314 PM EST WED JAN 2 2008

...HARD FREEZE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWEST INTERIOR SECTIONS...
...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT
EAST COASTAL AREAS...


.DISCUSSION...THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY
EVENING CONTINUES TO DIVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC AS
COOL CANADIAN AIR MOVES SOUTH. ALL WE ARE LEFT WITH IS CLEAR SKIES AND
EXCELLENT COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE VERY
MUCH FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEY WILL BEGIN TO CRASH
AFTER SUNSET... MUCH IN THE WAY DEW POINTS HAVE DONE THIS
AFTERNOON. ATTM THE FREEZING LINE IS EXPECTED TO REACH TO AROUND
THE TURNPIKE IN PALM BEACH... TO AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBURBS IN BROWARD... TO AROUND KROME AVE IN MIAMI DADE. THIS MAY
MAKE FROST POSSIBLE IN WIND SHELTERED AREAS EVEN IN THE EAST COAST
METROS, BUT IN WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS ONLY AS THE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OVER THE METRO
AND AROUND 10 MPH INLAND. TEMPS ACROSS GLADES, HENDRY, COLLIER
WILL BE ESPECIALLY COLD TONIGHT. TEMPS ARE ONLY AROUND 50 AND WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS, CONTINUED CAA, AND CLEAR SKIES A HARD
FREEZE IS ON TAP. AROUND SUNRISE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A
MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION AS THE COLD CANADIAN HIGH
SLOWLY LUMBERS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL START A
MODERATING TREND FOR S FL. THIS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AND THE RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE EAST COAST THURSDAY
MORNING... BUT ONLY INTO THE SLIGHT CATEGORY.

[gatorcane]

I'm also watching a mid to high-level cloud deck building in the south central GOM that may keep South Florida from freezing (if we are lucky):

[boca]

Hey gatorcane good to see you on the winter board. Its nice to talk about cold weather instead of hurricanes for a change.

[gatorcane]

Hey gatorcane good to see you on the winter board. Its nice to talk about cold weather instead of hurricanes for a change.

It sure it is, nice to see you also

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I think this event has been blown out of proportion for the south Florida metropolitan area. Firstly, the high is currently centered near Dallas, Texas; it is shifting east, which matches the recent model guidance. Therefore, NNE flow will return during Thursday morning, thus reducing the cold period along the east coast of Florida. The latest NWS Miami forecast does not bring Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Boca Raton below ~38-40°F tonight. That is a far cry from the original prognostication of 39°F in MIA, 35°F in Boca Raton, and 33°F in West Palm Beach. The projected lows have trended warmer over the past 36 hours.

Here is a snippet from the latest NWS Miami discussion (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMFL).

A VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
WEST OF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE IN PALM BEACH COUNTY...WEST OF A
SAWGRASS EXPRESSWAY INTERSTATE 75 LINE IN BROWARD COUNTY...AND
WEST OF KROME AVENUE IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
FOR ONLY ONE TO TWO HOURS.

That sounds very unremarkable, especially when you consider the hype generated by this supposed Arctic onslaught. I can remember events in the 1990s that featured a longer period of sub-freezing temps over the interior regions of south FL. It looks like the onshore flow will arrive earlier than originally expected. The current ridge position isn't favorable for a peninsular freeze. Additionally, NWS Miami expects a quick warming trend to above average temps over the next several days post-cold shot.

Currently, the projected overnight low for TLH is 26°F. If my theory regarding Tallahassee lows is correct, it would support a "muted" outbreak further south, with warmer lows than originally expected for the Florida peninsula. That would include the interior and east coast metro areas of south FL. Again, this cold shot is overhyped. Fortunately, I think most vegetative plants will fare nicely during the event, even across the interior regions of south FL.

[jasons2k]

Overhyped here in Texas too, especially by some forum posters. I was supposed to hit 27F last night and saw 32F. Tonight's forecast is 24F and I highly doubt it will get that cold, especially with clouds moving-in now.

[Vortex]

It's noteworthy that some guidance brings moisture along the east coast especially east/central parts late tonight. We may see fluries along the space coast. I would not be surprised if flurries are reported as far south as northern palm beach county..More later

[gatorcane]

Personally, I think this event has been blown out of proportion for the south Florida metropolitan area. Firstly, the high is currently centered near Dallas, Texas; it is shifting east, which matches the recent model guidance. Therefore, NNE flow will return during Thursday morning, thus reducing the cold period along the east coast of Florida. The latest NWS Miami forecast does not bring Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Boca Raton below ~38-40°F tonight. That is a far cry from the original prognostication of 39°F in MIA, 35°F in Boca Raton, and 33°F in West Palm Beach. The projected lows have trended warmer over the past 36 hours.

Here is a snippet from the latest NWS Miami discussion (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMFL).

A VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS TONIGHT...GENERALLY
WEST OF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE IN PALM BEACH COUNTY...WEST OF A
SAWGRASS EXPRESSWAY INTERSTATE 75 LINE IN BROWARD COUNTY...AND
WEST OF KROME AVENUE IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
FOR ONLY ONE TO TWO HOURS.

That sounds very unremarkable, especially when you consider the hype generated by this supposed Arctic onslaught. I can remember events in the 1990s that featured a longer period of sub-freezing temps over the interior regions of south FL. It looks like the onshore flow will arrive earlier than originally expected. The current ridge position isn't favorable for a peninsular freeze. Additionally, NWS Miami expects a quick warming trend to above average temps over the next several days post-cold shot.

Currently, the projected overnight low for TLH is 26°F. If my theory regarding Tallahassee lows is correct, it would support a "muted" outbreak further south, with warmer lows than originally expected for the Florida peninsula. That would include the interior and east coast metro areas of south FL. Again, this cold shot is overhyped. Fortunately, I think most vegetative plants will fare nicely during the event, even across the interior regions of south FL.

I agree this cold snap may be getting overhyped. NWS has quitely been increasing the expected low temps in South Florida from the low to mid 30s to now upper 30s to around 40F. In addition, the cloud deck I mention continues to become more widespread across the Southwestern GOM and there is already mid to high level clouds streaming across South Florida now as I type this. Should these clouds make it tonight, there is no way the temps will get below 40F across Southern Florida.All it takes is a slight E of N component to the wind (NNE) for South Florida to get winds off the water....(as the FL peninsula bends to the left north of palm beach county). These winds would bring in modified air over water that is running unseasonably warm for this time of year due to all of the unseasonable warmth (mid 70sF)

What you typically look for to produce a freeze over metro South Florida (very rare) is calm winds and an arctic high that sits over the peninsula. That is not happening this time around. I expect lows from the mid to upper 30s inland metro South Florida to lower to mid 40s coastal south florida and should the cloud deck make it tonight, add about 5 degrees at least to these projections.

[fwbbreeze]

NWS has warmed us up 1 degree (23) here on the coast in the Florida Panhandle, however away from the coast they are stilling calling for the mid to lower teens. Gonna be chilly!!

[MiamiensisWx]

Additionally, the projected overnight winds would be too strong, thus modifying overnight lows across south Florida.

The current ridge position would have been favorable for a freeze on Thursday, but it is quickly shifting east, so I think this is another dramatized "cold snap".

[MiamiensisWx]

Gator,

This thread may be interesting for you.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=99608

Let's see if it is correct in this situation.

[gatorcane]

Gator,

This thread may be interesting for you.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=99608

Let's see if it is correct in this situation.

yes I'll be curious to see if your theory holds.

[MGC]

We missed our forecast low last night by a good 5 degrees. The wind kept the atmosphere shaken not stired. I'm hoping the wind stays up again tonight so the low of 20 will not be realized. I doubt the winds die in Florida to allow such low readings as ya'll are much futher from the center of the high.....MGC

[Dionne]

Our barometric pressure is at 30.76, ambient is 31.1F at sunset. We missed the forecast high. Hold on folks......the cold is coming your way.

[artist]

gator - you must be right on the coast because I have been watching the reports all day for north & central palm beach county all day and they haven't budged the temps for these areas. We hit 43 for a low this morning and I think it was predicted we would get down to 48. We are predicted to get down to 29 tonight. We shall see. The warmest temp we had all day was 53.

[artist]

It's noteworthy that some guidance brings moisture along the east coast especially east/central parts late tonight. We may see fluries along the space coast. I would not be surprised if flurries are reported as far south as northern palm beach county..More later

Vortex - are you kidding?? If not, what time should we be looking out our window?

[TampaFl]

Follow Florida's temperatures tonight with th "FAWN" (Florida Agriculture Weather Network). The site updates every 10 minutes with real time temp, wind speed & direction, soil temps & dewpoints. Thoughts & comments welcomed.

http://fawn.ifas.ufl.edu/

Stay Warm!
Robert

[HURAKAN]

Right now is 49 degrees and the dew point is 24 degrees. For South Florida a dew point of 24 is pretty impressive.

[artist]

temp here is 44 and dewpoint of 20.

[MiamiensisWx]

gator - you must be right on the coast because I have been watching the reports all day for north & central palm beach county all day and they haven't budged the temps for these areas. We hit 43 for a low this morning and I think it was predicted we would get down to 48. We are predicted to get down to 29 tonight. We shall see. The warmest temp we had all day was 53.

That's false. Did a clueless local met offer that hype?

North Palm Beach, FL NWS forecast

The NWS Miami office indicates an overnight low of 36°F for your location.