Man, whatta winter eh?

[azsnowman]

Who says this is a La Nina winter? For my area this winter has turned out more and more like El Nino! Temps have been running 10-18° below normal and according to NOAA and their snowpack, I'm at 162% ABOVE the norm! I'm at 62" since Dec. 4th AND there's the potential of yet another MONSTER at the beginning of next week Forecast temps for tomorrow....24° with a N-NE wind of 25+mph!!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS65 KFGZ 151038 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 330 AM MST TUE JAN 15 2008 .



SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WARMER WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER EASTERN ARIZONA. && .DISCUSSION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SKIES...


MEANWHILE...WILL TURN PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES AS A BAND OF MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE REGION. BY TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE FOLLOWING 24 HOURS...MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE A RETURN OF COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AS WELL.


DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING A RETURN OF FAIR WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. LATEST EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST MODELS BRING ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL KEEP WITH A FORECAST INDICATING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COLDER TEMPERATURES DURING THAT TIME FRAME AS THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO CONTINUES TO EVOLVE.

[azsnowman]

I bow to the COLD GODS...."UNCLE, Calf Rope...whatever, I GIVE!"

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE...NO UPDATES EXPECTED FOR TODAYS FORECAST. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER IDAHO THIS MORNING IS STILL EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS OVERNIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AZ/UT BORDER BY MIDNIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.[b] WILL ISSUE A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DUE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING WEATHER ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND WIND CHILL READINGS FROM ZERO TO 15 BELOW AT TIMES.[/b]

[azsnowman]

ALL RIGHT..."ENOUGH!" LOL! Man, I'm tellin' ya, after 13 YEARS of minimual winter conditions, 13 years of ABOVE normal temps, these kind of temps are KILLIN' us (not to mention the HEATING BILLS )

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
203 PM MST TUE JAN 15 2008

AZZ004>017-038>040-162115-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
203 PM MST TUE JAN 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER EXTREME NORTHERN ARIZONA BY MID EVENING...THEN
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

VERY COLD WEATHER WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST ARIZONA STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS
WEDNESDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO 15 BELOW AT TIMES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PEOPLE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD
BE PREPARED FOR VERY COLD AND WINDY WEATHER.

[azsnowman]

Boy...it just keeps getting better!


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz


A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED DUE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING WEATHER ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND WIND CHILL READINGS FROM ZERO TO 15 BELOW AT TIMES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE BRINGS DEEP AND STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN WITH GRADUALLY WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY REMAINING AT OR BELOW NORMAL. LATEST EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST MODELS BRING ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG AND COLD STORM SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE INCREASED IN OUR FORECAST DUE TO THE DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS...EUROPEAN AND ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

[Scott Patterson]

these kind of temps are KILLIN' us (not to mention the HEATING BILLS

I'll be happy to trade you.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 107.55&e=1

Tonight: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around -13. Wind chill values as low as -30. Northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of snow before 11am. Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 6. Wind chill values as low as -30. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -16. Wind chill values as low as -30. West northwest wind around 10 mph.

Thursday: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 16. Wind chill values as low as -30. West southwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Thursday Night: A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -9. West wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 18.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -4.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 22.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 1.

Sunday: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23.

Sunday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 2.

M.L.King Day: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 2.

Tuesday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21.

Anyway, snowfall in the mountains around here is still below normal. The farther south you go, the more the snowfall is above normal. Southern CO, NM, and AZ are doing quite well.

[azsnowman]

Scott, ya know, you're a likeable guy but the answer is STILL NO!

SON OF A GUN, it's friggin' COLD...no other way to say it!

Hit the high for today at 1520 hours, 21°F but they lied about the wind....it's now 16° at 1605 hours and the wind is cookin' out of the north at 24, gusting to over 32 MPH..don't know what the wind chill is, let's just say, I put a cup of water outside for a test and in less than 2 MINUTES, it had a crust of ice on top!

[azsnowman]

The temp has plummeted to 5°F at 1730 hours MST...and the wind? Kickin' up even more...sustained at 31mph straight out of the north! Wonder how LOW it's gonna go?

[Scott Patterson]

The temp has plummeted to 5°F at 1730 hours MST...and the wind? Kickin' up even more...sustained at 31mph straight out of the north! Wonder how LOW it's gonna go?

Yeah, what the heck; dang weather forecasters. They say it's only going to be -17 here tonight and it's already -19 and only 8:30 PM?

[southerngale]

ALL RIGHT..."ENOUGH!" LOL! Man, I'm tellin' ya, after 13 YEARS of minimual winter conditions, 13 years of ABOVE normal temps, these kind of temps are KILLIN' us (not to mention the HEATING BILLS )

yeah, yeah, yeah

You say the same thing every year and then later post how much above normal you are for snow and all the "We're buried in snow!" threads. You just like to brag to those of us who see hurricanes more than snow.

[Aquawind]

That is awesome Dennis. It is soooooo boring down here..ugh. Enjoy the snowpack and drive safe!

[azsnowman]

ALL RIGHT..."ENOUGH!" LOL! Man, I'm tellin' ya, after 13 YEARS of minimual winter conditions, 13 years of ABOVE normal temps, these kind of temps are KILLIN' us (not to mention the HEATING BILLS )

yeah, yeah, yeah

You say the same thing every year and then later post how much above normal you are for snow and all the "We're buried in snow!" threads. You just like to brag to those of us who see hurricanes more than snow.

Yeah,so? What's your POINT? Are you trying to say I WHINE just like a WOMAN!?!??!?!

Seems this system has slowed down and they're still not quite sure as to how much snow we could possibly get or even if the system is coming at all now....and honestly, if it doesn't, I won't be crying over it, we need a little *winter* break!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

FXUS65 KFGZ 182130 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 230 PM MST FRI JAN 18 2008 .SYNOPSIS...BREEZY AND COLD NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH SATURDAY AS A MODEST WARMING TREND DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO MOVE INTO ARIZONA FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THIS STORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO MUCH OF ARIZONA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. &&



.DISCUSSION... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF AZ FORCING NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES OVER THE REGION...WITH THE COLD AIRMASS ENTRENCHED FROM THE RIM NORTHWARD PUSHING SOUTHWARD OVER THE RIM. LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES TODAY. IMPACTS OF THE COLD AIRMASS AND BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GREATEST ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. FOR THE WEEKEND...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN...SHIFT AROUND TO SOUTHWEST...AND BRING IN A MODEST WARMING TREND. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY...BUT BY SUNDAY CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS IS POSSIBLE.



NEXT WEEK...A STRONG TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST AND CUT OFF IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN CA. MODEL RUNS TODAY HAVE SHOWN THIS FEATURE TO CUT OFF FARTHER WEST AND TAKE ABOUT 36 HOURS LONGER TO MOVE INLAND THAN YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN NATURE OF THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM AND CUTOFF LOWS IN GENERAL...THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE WILL CONTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY...AND BROADBRUSH MOSTLY CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE DAYS OF THE WEEK. STILL...EVENTUALLY NEXT WEEK THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO FAIRLY LOW ELEVATIONS ONCE THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.