Impressive looking developing low in the GOM

[Stormcenter]

This baby is getting it's act together just as predicted.
Now the question is where will in track?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[MGC]

Sure is. It has been a while since we have had a decent non-tropical low in the GOM. I'm hoping it gets real windy here tomorrow. I want to see how my new weather station works.....MGC

[vbhoutex]

It also appears to be at least 150 miles further south than predicted also. Or am I missing something? This was supposed to develop just off of B'ville and track NE to LA. This could change a lot of the current progs I would guess or am I missing something?

[JonathanBelles]

It also appears to be at least 150 miles further south than predicted also. Or am I missing something? This was supposed to develop just off of B'ville and track NE to LA. This could change a lot of the current progs I would guess or am I missing something?

the things I have been watching were taking the system into the FL Panhandle, but it did develop father south than I had expected.

[dizzyfish]

From our afternoon local NWS disco. Sounds like they are expecting the low to cross North Florida.

UPPER SYSTEM OVER MEXICO SLIDES EAST INTO TX OVER AND BECOMES AN
OPEN WAVE...FORMING A SURFACE LOW OFF THE TX COAST ON A BAROCLINIC
ZONE STRETCHED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS UP
TO THE NE AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND
OVER THE ROCKIES WED...MAINTAINING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF.
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ENE OVER THE GULF AS THE HIGH INITIALLY OVER
MISS. RIVER VALLEY SHIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD. ON THU...LARGE
SCALE TROUGHINESS MOVES OVER THE PLAINS AND MID-WEST AS THE GULF
LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND THEN EXITS NORTH FL/SOUTH GA
TO THE NE AS A TRAILING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NE GULF AND NORTHERN
FL.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WHILE THE
APPROACHING LOW PROVIDES POPS RAMPING UP FROM SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
WED TO CHANCE TO LIKELY BY THU. THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND NORTH-CENTRAL...CLOSER TO THE LOW. THE HIGH MOVING BY TO THE NORTH
AND THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF WILL GRADUALLY VEER WINDS WITH
INCREASING SPEEDS



http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... &map.y=110

[jasons2k]

It also appears to be at least 150 miles further south than predicted also. Or am I missing something? This was supposed to develop just off of B'ville and track NE to LA. This could change a lot of the current progs I would guess or am I missing something?

I don't think you are

On satellite, it looked like the low - and a pretty intense one - had developed off the coast of Mexcio this morning. But the NWS-HGX in their 2:28PM afternoon AFD says it will develop tonight near B'ville. Either we're both blind or they forgot to update their discussion.

[vbhoutex]

It is going to be interesting to see how this all develops. Someone is off on the track of the low or we are going to have two different lows, because the one expected off of B'ville is supposed to track into SE LA last time I saw anything on it.

[RL3AO]

$20 someone makes a thread on the low in talkin' tropics after it emerges into the Atlantic.

[gboudx]

$20 someone makes a thread on the low in talkin' tropics after it emerges into the Atlantic.

You mean, besides you right?

[MGC]

I don't see any evidence of a low forming off the TX coast. I don't see one on radar or satellite. If the current low off Mexico does continue to develope than I think Florida will be the likely place where it crosses the coast....MGC

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Some rain for the drought areas. Hopefully
some precip falls over Georgia. Might be a bit
breezy too.

[brunota2003]

The low is supposed to track directly over us here in Eastern NC come tomorrow night through Thursday night. The low expected for Wednesday night is 33, with a 40% chance of rain. If the low is further south, then wouldnt it come further out into the Atlantic, thus allowing it to bomb over the GS and putting us on the cold side of the system? Talking classic Nor' Easter right there if it does.

[tailgater]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

Getting a little wind down there. Gust to 40 knots already.
13mb drop in the last 24hrs.

[HURAKAN]

Station 42019 - Freeport, TX 60 NM South of Freeport, TX

Wind Speed (WSPD): 35.0 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 40.8 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 12.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.2 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 99 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.76 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.01 in ( Steady )
Water Temperature (WTMP): 69.3 °F

[Dionne]

We're on the northern edge of this system. It's a nice soaking rain. Our lakes will enjoy this one!!

[HURAKAN]

Station FGBL1 - High Island 334
Link: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=fgbl1

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 40.0 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 46.0 kts
Air Temperature (ATMP): 57.0 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 43.2 °F

[HURAKAN]

Kicking and Screaming.

[Pedro Fernández]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002

Getting a little wind down there. Gust to 40 knots already.
13mb drop in the last 24hrs.

Perhaps a Rapid Cyclogenesis... As Fred Sanders & John Gyakum developed this term in 1980: 12 mb drop in 24 hrs; 24 mb drop in 24 hrs at least, depending on the latitude of the low movement, for a Bomb (in Spanish, 'Ciclogénesis Explosiva')

I have a question: Are these extratropical-lows frecuent in the GOM? It seems to me SST in the GOM have transmitted enough energy to the low for developing a strong convective structure.

[pwrdog]

One of these day's a big GOM Low will meet with some arctic air like in 1895 and several other times in the 1700's and 1800's and nail SE Texas and SW La. with a ton of snow...

I bet it was very interesting on the gulf coast back during the last ice age...

[jdray]

NWS JAX:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
345 AM EST WED JAN 16 2008

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-170900-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
345 AM EST WED JAN 16 2008

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...
...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION TODAY AND CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL LIKELY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBILTY STORMS POSSIBLE BEFORE
SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH
FLORIDA. STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO INCREASING
ONSHORE WINDS AND SURF. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH HIGH SEAS CREATING
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1007 AM EST WED JAN 16 2008

...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTN & TONIGHT...

.PUBLIC UPDATE...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
LOCALLY...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING THROUGH...WITH
DOPPLER RADARS INDICATING A BROAD BAND OF MAINLY LIGHT RAINS
ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE
RAINS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE
APPROACH OF LIFTING WARM FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GO DOWNHILL THIS AFTERNOON AS
AFOREMENTIONED LOW FURTHER DEVELOPS WHILE ADVANCING EAST ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ENABLE A WARM FRONT TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY MEANDER OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA OR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.

WIDESPREAD RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT JAX CWA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DICTATE PRECIP AMOUNTS AS
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL LIKELY ESTABLISH ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
FEATURE. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE 24-HOUR PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING OF 2 TO 3 INCHES EXTENDING NORTH OF KGNV-KSGJ
LINE...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. QUICK GLANCE AT FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATES 3-HOUR PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4
INCHES...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER 6-HOUR PERIOD. GIVEN THE GROUNDS
HAVE BEEN DRY THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A
FLOOD WATCH...BUT MAY RAISE FLOOD WATCH WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS EVENT APPEARS ISOLATED AT BEST.
ATMOSPHERE IS PRESENTLY STABLE WITH DEW-POINTS IN THE 30S OVER THE
MAINLAND...WITH 40S OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. RECOVERY TIME APPEARS
TOO SHORT WITH DEW POINTS LIKELY STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 60S TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY RESERVE THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE STRONG WINDS AS LOW-
LEVEL JET NEAR 50 KNOTS WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT.

MAY MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKING. OVERALL...PACKAGE APPEARS ON TRACK.

Nothing major, but should throw some wind and rain my way.