WELL...could THIS be the ONE?

[azsnowman]

Could this next system be THE system? Just like the March '06 Blizzard that dumped 42" in 3 days?

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY THIS WILL END THE NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND ADVECT IN A WARMER AIRMASS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WHICH COULD LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT MOST MODEL RUNS CLOSE OFF THE TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA WHICH WOULD TEND TO STALL PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. AS A RESULT...THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE FEATURES HIGHER POPS IN WESTERN AZ THAN EASTERN AZ THROUGH TUESDAY. A SIGNIFICANT POOL OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND COULD BRING QUITE LOW SNOW LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS MODEL RUN BRINGS -10 DEGREE C 700 MB AIR TO NORTHERN ARIZONA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD DROP SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FEET...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY EVEN LOWER. THIS FAR OUT IN THE FUTURE...THE EXACT SOLUTIONS ARE SUBJECT TO CONSIDERABLE CHANGE...HOWEVER THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MODELS AT THIS TIME POINTS TO A FAIRLY LONG DURATION OF PRECIPITATION WITH LOW SNOW LEVELS AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

[azsnowman]

I was just listening to the local mets on the news talking about this potential monster and even THEY are saying this could be one of the heaviest and the lowest (they could see snow on the desert FLOORS) elevation snows we've had in decades! Gonna be interesting to say the least and then again, it could be a BUST...but what get's me, all the models are now in agreement!

[azsnowman]

LOL! I wouldn't want to be responible for forecasting this next system, Gesus...it's flip flopped ALL over the place since last week and they still have no idea what's in store for us...

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECASTING THE MOVEMENT OF THIS LATEST CUT OFF LOW HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST MODELS. THE TREND HAS BEEN TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM AND HENCE CAUSE A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER IMPACTS TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM THERE REMAINS A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE GOOD OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SUB TROPICAL ORIGIN OF THIS INITIAL MOISTURE SURGE MEANS BETTER CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND A HIGHER SNOW LEVEL WITH MORE OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN SNOW LEVELS FOR THIS EVENT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS THE LOW GETS CLOSER.