Question for All of You Forecasters & Analysts

[southerngale]

Is there any chance that we are seeing one of those weather patterns set up that bring floods to some parts of the country and droughts to another?

While there have been tornadic outbreaks in some parts of the country, we are unusually dry down here and need rain badly. Is this possibly setting us up for drought conditions again in the south this summer or is this just a little dry spell that should end soon?

[Aslkahuna]

been in such a pattern since 1996 with persisitent drought in the West and different types of events elsewhere in the Country. Furthermore, I forsee us continuing this trend.

Steve

[PTrackerLA]

Southern gale, I really hope these dry conditions of april and may don't last into June. It sure would be nice to see those daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

[Stormsfury]

It does look like a feast or famine situation unfolding ... the recent rains that have dumped upon portions of the country may continue ... it really depends on the overall pattern setup this summer, but with La Niña rapidly making a comeback now ... it appears that a drier regime may indeed setup.

[southerngale]

Thanks for the replies guys. Aslkahuna, I actually was wondering more if the persisitent drought conditions were going to continue for the south, like here in Southeast Texas. We had a pretty wet fall and winter and then the last month or so, it has been very very dry and we need rain badly. Our 5-day forecast shows no rain in sight. :o

[vbhoutex]

SG. this is the same pattern we were in two years ago. I would guess you remember two years ago in this area rather vividly!!! Yes it was the year we had Allison. NO, I am not intimating that we will have another Allison-NNNNNNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!! If you remember it vividly enough you will also remember we were(at least in Houston) 22" behind in our rainfall and in a severe drought. We are only 6" down at this time, but here in Houston proper we haven't seen a drop of rain in 3 weeks. With this pattern firmly in place we will see very little in the way of rain for at least the forseeable future in this area. Even though it will fluctuate as to location some, the high is entrenched over the GOM and SE rather firmly for the time being, thus everything coming in from the W rides the high around us to the N and E and anything coming from the N tends to shunt off to the E. Conversely, if a tropical system were to develop S or SE of us in the Southern GOM or even the Carribean and come into the GOM, it would tend to ride the same high around to the W and NW meaning a possible W GOM landfall. I'm not predicting anything here or -removed-, just stating facts. A great example of this is Lili last year.

[southerngale]

The same pattern as 2 years ago when Allison formed? YIKES!! :o That's a scary thought!!

Thanks for the great explanation David. I really appreciate it. When Allison hit, I had never even been to a weather message board before. I found GoPbi shortly after Allison. It is sure going to be nice to have people from this area to "talk" to if we are threatened by another tropical system. I wish I knew ya'll back then.

[Stormsfury]

With this pattern firmly in place we will see very little in the way of rain for at least the forseeable future in this area. Even though it will fluctuate as to location some, the high is entrenched over the GOM and SE rather firmly for the time being, thus everything coming in from the W rides the high around us to the N and E and anything coming from the N tends to shunt off to the E. Conversely, if a tropical system were to develop S or SE of us in the Southern GOM or even the Carribean and come into the GOM, it would tend to ride the same high around to the W and NW meaning a possible W GOM landfall. I'm not predicting anything here or -removed-, just stating facts. A great example of this is Lili last year.

David, 100% correct ....