The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
September 24, 2005 Discussion
DISCUSSION ... FOR ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ALL OF ORANGE COUNTY ... SOUTHERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY ... WESTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY ... AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY ...
SYNOPSIS....A storm system will be rotating in nearly the same area as last week's system, This system may, in fact bring more Thunderstorms, and Rain to the forecast area once again. Analysis models are differing on timing and strength. Its very difficult this time to pinpoint the entire scenario. Hopefully tomorrows will show better.
PRE-STORM FACTS: We use this section to tell you the conditions before the storm. If we tell you a condition and it comes true when we say it, expect the storm to be on track! The condition is High Clouds. Tomorrow, Sunday, in the morning till the evening expect high cirrus looking clouds across the sky. A number of them perhaps.
...SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION...
THE RAIN CHANCES...As of right now the rain chances look okay. Not all that impressive like last week, but all areas in the forecast area might get a chance to see some rain. There's not a whole lot of wind at the lower levels, and moisture content is a bit lower than last weeks storm system. If anything the rain should start Monday Evening, and into Tuesday Afternoon. The timing just like last weeks storms. Rainfall may range from 1 inch or lower with this as storms will move rapidly, not staying over the forecast area long enough to produce totals.
THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES... This will be determined tomorrow or the day of the storm's arrival. This is a toughie as Thunderstorm waves are hard to forecast. Not the initial wave, but the entire location of the passing. Keep in mind that this system may yield the same thunderstorms as last weeks light show if the models continue this way. 700mb mid level, and 850mb lower level moisture is in place. Although a bit lower than last week, it shouldn't effect the chances. The cold air aloft will be cold enough, conjunction with the warm air down here to produce some strong warm air advection. Large scale ascent, producing numerous scattered thunderstorms. More on this tomorrow.
WIND CHANCES... Winds do not look like a problem at all. For now that is. lower level winds, and jet position and advection don't look entirely bad for anything alert able.
MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...After this passes, we might settle down finally. Huge storm systems passing to the far north will cause a ridge under us. This might warm things back to normal temperatures.
Geo Man
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