PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS

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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2005

6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 5 - 9 2005 . . . . . . .

TODAYS MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKENING OF THE PERSISTENT CIRCULATION PATTERN THAT IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED AND WAS CONFIDENTLY PREDICTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ON OUTLOOKS ISSUED EARLIER THIS WEEK. WHILE THE OVERALL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN STILL PREDICTS A PERSISTENCE OF ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH IN THE WEST... AN INCREASING NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD. TODAYS HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS OF BOTH THE 0Z GFS AND YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF PREDICT THE WESTERN TROUGH TO MOVE EASTWARD AND PERHAPS EVEN CLOSE OFF NEAR THE GREAT LAKES BY DAY 7. THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS... HOWEVER... PERSIST A PATTERN SIMILAR TO THEIR FORECASTS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO FULLY ACCEPT THE HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS... BUT THEY WILL BE GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL WEIGHT IN THE BLEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE EAST DUE TO A WARM START TO THE PERIOD... WHILE TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURE TOOLS PREDICT INCONSISTENT SIGNALS FOR MUCH OF ALASKA... ALTHOUGH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND IN THE PANHANDLE. PRECIP- ITATION SIGNALS ARE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE U.S. AND THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION PREDICTION... EXCEPT FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE MOST TOOLS AGREE ON ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN AMOUNTS. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE PREDICTED FOR THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES DUE TO EXPECTED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM OTIS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOST TOOLS SUGGEST ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EAST COAST... MOST CONFIDENTLY IN THE SOUTHEAST AND LEAST IN NEW ENGLAND.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/


8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 7 - 13 2005

THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION ANOMALY PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE IN A TRANSITIONAL STATE IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY PERIOD. THE EASTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN... ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BE PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL. A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL U.S. IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. VARIABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE PERIOD IN MUCH OF THE CONUS... WITH THE 7-DAY AVERAGE MOSTLY FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE STRONG TROUGH NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL FOCUS PRECIPITATION FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. PRECIPITATION TOOLS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/