More Rain For Southern California? 3rd measurable rainfall?

[Geomagnetic Man]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Geo-Man's Forecast

...SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION...

THE RAIN CHANCES...The GFS has been showing this feature for a few days now. Uncertain about it still, the GFS shows the following. Saturated 500MB levels for tons of moisture in the upper levels. 40-50% RH in the 700MB levels, with no Jet Dynamics. It's really tough to figure this one out, but we will go for a chance of rain. the lower levels show the same as the mid levels at 50% RH, so some rain could very well make it to the ground later. The models show the feature coming in after sunset, however the lead could come in as early as rush hour traffic. This should be out of the area Tomorrow.

THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES... With 50% RH in the 850, and 700MB levels, a cold core feature low of -12 degrees Celsius at 500MB, or 17,000 feet, and a lower level temperature of 18C, making that a temperature gradient of 30 degrees from 5,000 to 17,000 feet. That is marginal in development needed for thunderstorms from these cold cores. Again, the ETA failed to initialize it's models so we are left not knowing another factor in this formula, which is CAPE. That remains unknown, but all together a value of 100. 101 and above is needed for the thunderstorms, so we are very close. A chance of thunderstorms will be warranted for today, into tonight. These chances are for the whole forecast area.

WIND CHANCES... Winds do not look like a problem at all. For now that is. lower level winds, and jet position and advection don't look entirely bad for anything alert-able. The Santa Ana Winds may blow pretty strong on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week! We will post about this after this system. That will be our main focus.


MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...Santa Ana Winds may develop again on Tuesday and Wednesday. The exact timing is unknown right now, but we will keep you posted after this storm passes.

Geo-Man

[wxmann_91]

Yes, the NWS San Diego AFD talks about it, will be looking forward to it.

But it was a TOTAL bust last time.

[Geomagnetic Man]

Yes it was a bust, however, I see you are in San Diego..I only go as far south as maybe Temecula. Wish I could extend down there. Living in this area for years, Ive gotten to know the secrets that live behind the mountains, and how the coast, and mountains drive our weather. Certain elements that come together will generate the ability for tstorms in this region..Rare, but it happens..Yes, the NWS AFD from San Diego is good, however this week they failed to mention this system. I called them up, and gave them a hint at what might happen about 3 days ago, and they said, great spot. I do have a spotter number with them, been a chaser for years now, and made it on the star spotters list in there office. Chased the Hemet tornado earlier in the summer. Im not so confident in the forecast for Los Angeles this time like always, lol, but more confident for Southern Forecast areas, from Southern Orange County, to Extreme SW Riverside County, as far as I forecast. Have a good one! We need to get out of these smaller type of systems, and get on with the major cold fronts! Those will be fun to forecast, and ill post them on here. I am much better with the major system than with these small pop up tstorm systems.

Geo Man

[weatherlover427]

When I woke up I noticed that the ground was damp this morning at around 6:30 am PDT (I live in Costa Mesa). Do you think this was due to the marine layer or the actual system that you predicted yesterday afternoon?

[wxmann_91]

When I woke up I noticed that the ground was damp this morning at around 6:30 am PDT (I live in Costa Mesa). Do you think this was due to the marine layer or the actual system that you predicted yesterday afternoon?

I would say marine layer. It look promising at 9:30 yesterday night but by the time I went to sleep two hours later all the echoes had fizzled out.

Another busted forecast.

[Geomagnetic Man]

Actually, I would not say my forecast was another busted forecast because I got it right on. My southern areas got the rain, if you read my tstorm chances, the value i got was 100, and in my charts 100 means rain only, no thunderstorms. So in all I believe I nailed this just right that day.

Geo-Man