Is this really autumn?

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TexasStooge
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Is this really autumn?

#1 Postby TexasStooge » Fri Nov 04, 2005 2:48 pm

By KIMBERLY DURNAN / DallasNews.com

Sure, the stores are selling pumpkins and mums and jackets, all suggesting the essence of fall.

But with daytime temperatures hovering in the 80s, this autumn has been a downer for people who like to feel a nip in the air by October – or November at the latest.

Friday night football, for example, just isn’t the same without sweater weather to set the tone, says Tammy Nobriga, president of Irving Nimitz High School’s band booster club.

"It’s been terrible not to have cooler weather," said Nobriga, who wears T-shirts and shorts to the stadium. "We aren’t usually dealing with 80-degree weather during football games. Usually, we are pulling out our sweat shirts and stadium blankets and getting hot chocolate from the concession stand."

High temperatures this week have at least 10 degrees above normal. The record high for Nov. 4 is 88 degrees, set both in 1948 and 1987, although Friday’s high was expected to reach only the mid-80s, said Jesse Moore, a National Weather Service meteorologist.

"We have these warm and cool times in this transition period known as fall," Moore said. "Obviously, the temperatures are well above normal."

More of the same was expected Saturday, with a cool front dropping the temperature a few notches Sunday. But next week’s temperatures were supposed to be above-normal again, he said.

Moore attributed the unusual warmth to dry air blowing in from West Texas combining with low humidity resulting from a lack of rain. The extended warm, dry period has persisted for several months.

The average high temperature in September was 95.2 degrees, 7.5 degrees above normal. "That’s a lot," Moore said.

And in October, the average high was 80.8 degrees, nearly 3 degrees above normal.

Dale Groom, Dallas County horticulturist for the Texas Cooperative Extension Service, predicted that persistent warmth could be a problem for plants and trees, many of which need a fall season to go into a dormancy that protects them from severe weather.

"Typically plants respond best when cooling temperatures occur over a gradual period of time," Groom said. Otherwise "plants cannot go into a dormant period. This means an actively growing plant that would be otherwise winter-hardy could be damaged or terminated."

Some grasses also are at risk, Groom said.

"If your lawn is still actively growing and a hard freeze hits it, the grass could be damaged because it didn’t have the chance to go into dormancy," he said.

And aficionados of autumn leaves likely will be disappointed, as the warm weather and lack of rain will result in a less colorful fall, Groom added.

September’s precipitation was 1.36 inches, about an inch below normal, Moore said. October was worse, with only 0.89 inch of rain recorded, most of it falling on the last day of the month.

To date, the area is nearly a foot behind in annual rainfall. The average should be nearly 30 inches.

And there’s no precipitation in the immediate forecast. "We had our little treat on Monday and that’s about it," Moore said.

The "little bit of hope on the horizon" is that the seasonal outlook for December through February calls for slightly above-normal precipitation. But the winter and summer months are the drier ones, so even above-normal rainfall won’t make up the shortfall, he said.

Jim Bookout, a Dallas runner who is training for the White Rock Marathon, said the morning hours have been perfect for training runs.

"Has it been warmer?" he asked. "It feels cool in the early mornings."

DallasNews.com staff writer Linda Leavell contributed to this report.

Image

Image
RICHARD MICHAEL PRUITT / Dallas Morning News
Gina Dunagan reads a book as she catches some sun at White Rock Lake on Thursday.
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#2 Postby Skywatch_NC » Fri Nov 04, 2005 2:56 pm

Upper 70s here in Raleigh today through Sunday...then cooling to only the lower 70s Monday through Thursday. Indian Summer in November! :wink:

Eric
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#3 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Nov 04, 2005 2:59 pm

Image
Once the atmosphere gets into a position that it likes, it stays that way for days, weeks and even months. Such was the case during the hurricane season. Storms wanted to form in or around the Caribbean, and not way out in the Atlantic. This week, the jet stream has stretched across the northern United States and southern Canada, and no big changes will occur through at least the first part of next week. Small undulations in the jet will bring a tease of cold, then a return of warmth to various parts of the country, but a dramatic turn of events is unlikely. That's pretty good news if you live anywhere from the Great Plains to the East Coast. On the other hand, there are places where it hasn't been so nice. The Northwest has been getting nasty weather right along, and that too will continue for several more days.
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#4 Postby andrewr » Fri Nov 04, 2005 3:56 pm

It's about the opposite here in Washington:

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SEATTLE - (Updated Friday 12:05 p.m.)

One down, November to go.

The second of several storms expected to roll through the area over the next week is working its way inland.

Heavy rain moved into the main greater Puget Sound area just before noon. Rainfall rates were pretty impressive, so be on guard for standing water and perhaps some urban flooding from clogged storm drains and the like.

It was also going to be another breezy afternoon, with south winds of 25-35 mph across the area. Bellingham had a gust around 40 mph at noon.

The steady rains will end early this afternoon as the front passes, to be replaced by scattered showers and thunderstorms as the air mass destabilizes. Some of these showers could have more brief heavy downpours and small hail along for the ride as well.

It'll stay breezy through the afternoon too before the winds die down this evening and overnight. Highs will top out in the upper 40s.

That does mean scattered heavy snow showers for the Cascades as well. A SNOW ADVISORY is in effect through Friday with another 6-12" of new snow.

Showers continue Friday night but will decrease in intensity and coverage. Lows will be around 40.

Saturday's picture is becoming a bit clearer now with newer forecast model runs, and it's looking less windy than we originally were thinking as the storm is now a little weaker and pegged to come in over the Central Coast and South Sound area instead of the North Coast and Vancouver Island. The track is important, because you need to be on the south side of the storm to get the strong southerly winds.

So we're looking at more of a cool, rainy, and breezy day Saturday -- especially in the afternoon and evening, but no major winds, just 20-25 mph.

On the flip side, that keeps us on the cooler side of the storm, so it'll make for more in the way of mountain snow. Saturday.

The longer range forecast has a few more storms in it than earlier, but the storms are run-of-the-mill and will bring just the usual November rains and breezy winds. Looks like we'll still be in a "break" of just scattered showers and sun breaks Sunday, then another wave of light rain Sunday night and Monday. Showers Tuesday, rain Wednesday, showers Thursday, etc. Each day now looks like snow levels will be low enough that everything falls as snow in the mountains.

So it's possible the mountains will have more snow in them by the end of next week than they had accumulated for the entire winter season last year!

By Scott Sistek
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#5 Postby southerngale » Fri Nov 04, 2005 5:56 pm

Is this really autumn?


Nope, at least not here.

A quote from Greg Bostwick, meteorologist at KFDM in Beaumont:
"Warm And Breezy Weekend....
Onshore windflow will continue into next week with much above normal temperatures and high humidity. There are no fronts on the way with no trigger for rain through at least Tuesday."
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#6 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Nov 04, 2005 9:02 pm

We had a fairly cool strech of about 1 1/2 weeks towards the end of November, flirted with the upper 30's but now we'll be in the 80's during the day and 60's at night for the foreseeable future. Hopefully we'll get some colder weather for thanksgiving week.
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#7 Postby tropicana » Fri Nov 04, 2005 9:15 pm

The past 2 days in Toronto hit 66F 19C with plenty of sunshine..both warmth and sunshine usually rare commodities during this 11th month.

So up this way, we don't look a gift horse in the mouth when it comes to the weather. Usually, Canadians complain about the weather. The past 2 days, Torontonians embraced it.

Windsor ON in the extreme south western part of the province saw highs of 21C 69F on Thursday and 21.4C 70F (a new record) on Friday.
Last edited by tropicana on Sat Nov 05, 2005 11:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#8 Postby Skywatch_NC » Fri Nov 04, 2005 9:49 pm

southerngale wrote:
Is this really autumn?


Nope, at least not here.

A quote from Greg Bostwick, meteorologist at KFDM in Beaumont:
"Warm And Breezy Weekend....
Onshore windflow will continue into next week with much above normal temperatures and high humidity. There are no fronts on the way with no trigger for rain through at least Tuesday."


No rain in the forecast here through at least the next 5 to 7 days...severe drought here and Gov. Mike Easley really having to tighten the belt on water restrictions here in central NC...for ie. customers have to order a glass of water when eating out...otherwise NOT even a glass of water available at eateries. :( Getting absolutely ridiculous! :eek:

Eric
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#9 Postby cjrciadt » Fri Nov 04, 2005 10:07 pm

Highs here will go from around 80 flat to about 85 over the next 3 days. :eek:
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