any chance of weakening

[brandybugg4180]

Hello I hear we have a good chance of getting severe weather in the midlands of sc...does anyone see this thing weakening before it gets to us. Also im curious as to with all this severe weather popping up here in jan does that mean a good chance of snow is on the way for us?

[wxmann_91]

You had better hope that wedge can protect you...or otherwise you're in one of the worst possible places for svr tomorrow.

[brandybugg4180]

how is the wedge looking right now i dont know how to detect one i just go from weather board to weather board trying to obtain knowledge but most of it confuses me lol

[wxmann_91]

how is the wedge looking right now i dont know how to detect one i just go from weather board to weather board trying to obtain knowledge but most of it confuses me lol

I highly doubt the wedge is there yet, and I highly doubt it will protect you tomorrow (should've mentioned that earlier). Maybe blowoff/debris clouds from tonight's round could hold of severe a bit tomorrow. Now of course if cloudcover tomorrow thins out quicker than expected this is going to be one heck of an event. The models have been pointing to a dry line feature and possibly a mesolow feature. Add in the some OFB's from tonight's convection and that wedge front I talked about in an earlier post in the other thread and you betcha that tomorrow's event is going to be bad - but localized. Long-lived, long-track, and strong discrete/supercellular storms near the wedge front are a good bet.

And, in fact, you could be near the vicinity of that wedge front/boundary, that makes things so much worse. Not trying to scare you but count on some bad storms in your vicinity tomorrow - I don't see anything that will protect you.

About snow - I don't see it in your local forecast from the NWS or TWC, so I don't think so.

[wxmann_91]

You also might want to read the GSP AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
200 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AS UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES E TODAY...SW
FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ALREADY SURGING N FROM THE GULF. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS WITH RAIN
SPREADING NE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF
TSTMS IN THE SW PART OF THE CWA DURG THE NIGHT. THINGS GET MORE
COMPLICATED MONDAY AFTN THROUGH EVE. AS WARM MOIST AIR DRIVES N
TONIGHT...IN-SITU WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP AS PRECIP FALLS INTO
VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS COOL WEDGE WILL STABLIZE THE
WEDGED AREA BUT ACT AS A BOUNDARY ALONG ITS PERIPHERY...ESP ALONG
THE S AND W EDGE. THERE IS NO WAY TO TELL HOW STRONG THE WEDGE WILL
BE OR EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL SET UP. S OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
BE VERY UNSTABLE THOUGH AND WITH COLD AIR MOVG IN ALOFT...WARM MOIST
AIR BELOW...A STRONG LL JET...GOOD SHEAR...MODERATE CAPES AND
HELICITY...SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON AFTN-MON EVE. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE REISSUED HIGHLIGHTING THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

[Brent]

You better hope for a wedge because you could be very close to some very damaging tornadoes tomorrow if not...

[wxmann_91]

Good news for folks in SC is that the area is shifting west a bit...the dry line has stalled out.

[brandybugg4180]

if im reading correctly they seem to have changed the tornado threat tomorrow (percentage wise from 25 to 5 for here) the spc . Anyone have any other updates on this system as of now.

[brandybugg4180]

Its raining heavily here now with a few rumbles of thunder. I hope the sun doesnt come out when this moves thru i dont really want to go thru bad storms at night. anyone have any ideas on what this is going to do

[Skywatch_NC]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=79909

[Brent]

Still have a risk of severe weather this afternoon and tonight... though based on how things have gone so far, I'm skeptical.

[wxmann_91]

The southeast really dodged a bullet with this storm. Only a few tornadoes reported and it looks like that batch of early junk convection stabilized the atmosphere enough in Georgia and S. Carolina. It looks like at 20Z SPC will downgrade this to a SLGT.

[Skywatch_NC]

Looks like the OH Valley is ripe today more so than the SE which is great news at least for the SE obviously.

Eric

[wxmann_91]

Looks like the OH Valley is ripe today more so than the SE which is great news at least for the SE obviously.

Eric

Mcd 18 states that wind profiles across the SE and the OH Valley are mainly unidirectional. This greatly decreases the tornado potential for both areas.

[Skywatch_NC]

Looks like the OH Valley is ripe today more so than the SE which is great news at least for the SE obviously.

Eric

Mcd 18 states that wind profiles across the SE and the OH Valley are mainly unidirectional. This greatly decreases the tornado potential for both areas.

Agreed

Damaging wind and hail being primary threat for both areas.