Winter Storm Watch - N GA Feb 06-06

[JenyEliza]

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/ga/allwarnings.html

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1155 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2006

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-030>035-041>045-060100-
/O.CON.KFFC.WS.A.0001.060206T1100Z-060206T2100Z/
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-
SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...
ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...
LAWRENCEVILLE...CARROLLTON...DOUGLASVILLE...EAST POINT...DECATUR
1155 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2006

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE SUNDAY. AS THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES EAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW AND INTO GEORGIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

THE AIRMASS NEAR THE GROUND WILL BE COLD AND DRY BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW OR A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

IF THE RIGHT PARAMETERS COME TOGETHER...AS SOME COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE...SIGNIFICANT SNOW MAY FALL ACROSS A SWATH OF NORTH GEORGIA...ROUGHLY FROM NEAR ROME TO THE NORTH ATLANTA METRO AREAS TO GAINESVILLE. AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON GRASSY OR EXPOSED SURFACES...INCLUDING BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...MIDTOWN AND SOUTH ATLANTA METRO...OVER TO THE ATHENS AREA...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SNOW POSSIBLE. UP TO AN INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE ON EXPOSED SURFACES AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

THE SYSTEM IS STILL ORGANIZING AT THIS TIME. IF IT BECOMES WEAKER OR TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN EXPECTED...THEN LITTLE OR EVEN NO SNOW WILL OCCUR. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES STRONGER...SIGNIFICANT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGER AREA.

RESIDENTS OF NORTH GEORGIA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CAREFULLY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[JenyEliza]

Latest from FFC:

000
FXUS62 KFFC 052246
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
545 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
LATEST RUN OF THE MODELS STILL ADVERTISING MIXED BAG OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER TX-OK REGION PROGGED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST...MOVING ALONG THE GULF COASTAL STATES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS SIMILAR WITH DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA BY EARLY MONDAY THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. LATEST MODEL THICKNESSES NOT QUITE AS COLD AS ADVERTISED ON SATURDAY...BUT STILL LOOKING LIKE A RAIN/SNOW MIX GENERALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS ATLANTA TO ATHENS LINE WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE ROME TO GAINESVILLE NORTHWARD. A CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH METRO ATL TO AHN...BUT AREAS NORTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW OR SOME MIX. CURRENT RUN OF MODELS SHOWING GOOD QPF VALUES ACROSS THE NORTH AND WILL GO WITH SNOW ADVISORY FOR AREAS ROME TO GAINESVILLE NORTH...AND CONTINUE WATCH OVER THE REST OF NORTH GEORGIA. GOOD CHANCE THAT LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO UPGRADE TO WARNING AND INCREASE AMOUNTS ONCE EVENT STARTS TO UNFOLD. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW QUICKLY PRECIP WILL END. GFS MUCH WETTER MONDAY NIGHT THAN ETA...WHICH TRIES TO DRY OUT THE NORTH. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND GO WITH HIGHER POPS THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS LATEST GFS MOS. MODELS MORE IN LINE TUESDAY WITH SURFACE LOW PUSHING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST BY 12Z...TAKING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BEHIND IT WITH DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
LATEST RUN OF GFS STILL SHOWING WEAK IMPULSE SKIRTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. MOISTURE LIMITED OVER GEORGIA BUT WITH COLD THICKNESSES...ANY PRECIP THAT FALL ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA SHOULD BE SNOW. SYSTEM LOOKS TO PULL EAST OF OUR AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NEXT SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FRIDAY. AGAIN MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT GFS SHOWING BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THICKNESSES COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...PLAN TO KEEP POPS LOW...BEING SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND MANY MODEL RUNS YET TO GO.

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