Long Range Forcast

[Super Cell]

Well after an afternoon of looking over the long range data i have to say that things are not looking good for SNOWCASTERS. It appears that the country will get caught up into a modified zone type pattern..Although we on the gulf coast will remain colder than normal it appears no strong artic outbreaks in the next two weeks.This will put us into the first week and a half of Febuary. With no indications of a renewel of artic air i have to say that the winter event becomes a less chance by the days.Of coarse as we all have learned MODELING is not very accurate after three days..However if i had to make a long range on the info i have i would say that we have slipped to 25% chance of seeing an event on the gulf coast this year.Soon it will be TORNADO time here on the coast it will be time to chase the THUNDERSTORMS.

[Super Cell]

well i was hoping to start a big debate on this sbject the board is quite...anyway after a new look today i will have to hold to my last post..everyday puts us closer to spring.....

[Guest]

Can't say I am not ready for spring. I still would like to see my snow and I won't quit wishcasting - and all the snows that have fallen in Houston area have been in February. As I said earlier - I am swearing off long-range models and forecast. We have the Pacific fronts moving through now and that means rain for us and probably lots of it.

So here's to looking for Spring - but still wishcasting for Snow!

Patricia

[PTrackerLA]

Well I would like to have a few more arctic outbreaks and then by march I'll be ready for spring! Everything is really brown around here and my lili - damaged trees would look much better with some leaves!

[One Eye]

Looking at the Avn and reading some the NWS extended period discusions, we will have a return of "old man winter" possibly from Feb.5-9. Probably not as cold as last week but with a little more southern jet coming into the picture which could make things a little more interesting than the bone dry cold the south has experienced lately. So I, the One Eye Snow Lover have not completely given up hope of a little white stuff before our winter season in South ends. 8)

[Anonymous]

All indications are that the cold will at least make some kind of return to parts of the south.

[Super Cell]

No dought we are going to see some cool temps over the next 2 weeks..I have even seen some long range modeling that has the zero line over us and moisture...hmmmmm SNOW!!!!!.....NOT!!..to get caught up in looking 10 to 16 days out is relly pressing the envelope..However an act of GOD can occur on any given day..However i have revised my snow forcast on the mississippi gulf coast down to 24%...I feel once the southren jet starts pumping south eastern winds temps will rise which will modify any arctic air..trough has been a mainly eastern U.S. this winter.. You know the over talked about I-95 corrodor..Timing is what it is all about on the gulf coast..First thing you must have is COLD AIR...Hmmmmmm 47.3 tonight..that might get you a south mississippi snow storm!!??? Yea you know cold drizzling rain...thats a south mississippi snow storm..WE will see who is the master predictor on the storm 2k board..

Next up date....Feb/2

[vbhoutex]

No dought we are going to see some cool temps over the next 2 weeks..I have even seen some long range modeling that has the zero line over us and moisture...hmmmmm SNOW!!!!!.....NOT!!..to get caught up in looking 10 to 16 days out is relly pressing the envelope..WE will see who is the master predictor on the storm 2k board..

Next up date....Feb/2

Shall we start a forecast thread soley for posting forecasts?

[vbhoutex]

Long and some short range models are showing a cool down for the Houston area and the South starting on the fourth. Our temps here may go into the 40's and stay there thru the eighth along with some cold rain(in the 30's)on the 7th and 8th. Then we see a brief warm up before we hit the skids on the 10th or 11th. That is when the temps drop below 30 and stay there for 2 days(according to the models) One shows lows into the low 20's high teens. Precip wise the only areas that might get frozen precip from this are in central to southern MS, AL, and SE GA. The 850 mb zeo line is Sof the coast the 11th and 12th with a startup of a GOM low shown around the 11th SE of Houston. Still 10 days out it is hard to hold onto that type of forecast, especially here in the south! We shall see! Anyone else want to jump on board and give a read/forecast?

[vbhoutex]

Long and some short range models are showing a cool down for the Houston area and the South starting on the fourth. Our temps here may go into the 40's and stay there thru the eighth along with some cold rain(in the 30's)on the 7th and 8th. Then we see a brief warm up before we hit the skids on the 10th or 11th. That is when the temps drop below 30 and stay there for 2 days(according to the models) One shows lows into the low 20's high teens. Precip wise the only areas that might get frozen precip from this are in central to southern MS, AL, and SE GA. The 850 mb zeo line is Sof the coast the 11th and 12th with a startup of a GOM low shown around the 11th SE of Houston. Still 10 days out it is hard to hold onto that type of forecast, especially here in the south! We shall see! Anyone else want to jump on board and give a read/forecast?

UH!!! Unless the models flop back, this is out the door!!! See my post elsewhere regarding the cold weather. :bgbounce:

[Super Cell]

well i thought i would dig this topic back up and kick it for a few....Well as stated a few weeks back i felt that the chances for a snow along the gulf coast was dwindling by the day..Once again after checking with some long range models it seems that the artic intrusion is over...The southern jet is starting to really crank now this sets a blocking situation to the north.. It appears now that we will get all the moister that is needed for snow.. 8) However we are missing THE main factor...COLD AIR! Now as we saw over the weekend we got involved with what i call a deep south snow storm..40 degrees and drizzle.....wasn't pretty but plenty miserable..I believe now i am ready to say that we have less than a 15% chance to see snow this year along the central gulf coast.. It has been a colder than normal winter however we have suffered a split jet with little to no phasing which has left us with little moister to work with now the southren jet is cranking and the cold air is on the retreat..it is coming closer to spring every day..time to turn the dirt and get the garden in the ground...

[GAStorm]

I would not give up just yet Super Cell. Long range models do not have any kind of accuracy beyond 7 days! Sometimes even within that time frame they can be way off. We had an arctic outbreak last month, so it is still possible to see that happen again while the southern jet is still active. As crazy as this winter has been, maybe mother nature is waiting for the 10 year anniversary of the '93 superstorm!

[Super Cell]

yes i always have hope..if the chance for one flake of falling i will stay up all nite..However living here on the gulf coast all my life i have learned that a snow event is as rare as saddam telling the truth! You know in 45 years i have seen about 10 events with 4 being what i would call big events and only 2 that i call once in a life time events..63,93 were the years..I have seen it snow in march this is true and i also seen a easter day snow..it is not that i don't like snow..i love the ice events however i am a forcaster and not a wishcaster this is the reason i make these kinda of posts..and then i like to stir the pot when things are quite

[Stormsfury]

Take a look at the new ECMWF - day 6 - you may get your shot just yet.

500mb Geopotential Heights (closes off a 500mb low over MS)
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

850mb RH's
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

850mb Temperatures
http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest