Non Technical Prediction

[Stormy1]

I have a question that probably isn't welcome here but I'm going to take a chance and ask it.

I've been storm chasing for 30 years, just recently gotten brave enough to work with SkyWarn, and have run Grlevel3 and StormLab since their inception. I can honestly say that I have no meteorological training beyond that of a storm spotter but I'm no dummy either.

Today, I watched and felt my local weather conditions change, and as they did, I checked my radars and came to the message boards for insight but all was quiet. As my evening unfolded, we encountered one hell of a line of storms that spawned numerous sighted/ radar indicated funnels and one allegedly tracked tornado with light damage (as of this post). During those early hours today, when nothing was going on, having lived in my area and experienced the conditions that seem to spawn crazy Indy weather, I said to several people that we were going to have a busy night, they concurred and we were correct.

So here is my question, meant with no disrespect to those who predict with authority: What creedence is given to short term predictions based on personal experience, not aided by technology?

I only ask because I live the dead center of crazy weather central and the one thing that many of us older folks do, is get potential tornado weather predictions correct. I love it that I am becoming more schooled as far as longer range predicting but after a night like tonight, I am also very grateful for that lndiana instinct that kept my family safe and allowed me to enjoy tracking the storms.

Thank you for listening. I welcome your opinons and thank you in advance.

Mods, please feel free to move this post.