Easter Weekend Severe Weather Outbreak

[hpsupercell]

It appears likely that a severe weather outbreak will take shape once again in the plains and Ohio Valley.

There is a strong shortwave lifting into the plains from the southwest. With this shortwave comes a serge of hot, dry air. This will limit most of the thunderstorm activity Friday but Saturday severe weather will likely develop and head northeast. This will likely create and overrunning zone from the northern Plains to the lower great lakes. But to narrow down areas of major concern at this point in time is a little hard. I'll post a little more later on.

Models are showing a very dry looking in the warm sector due to the very little shear forecasted, but since the impulse is so strong it’s unlikely to see no severe weather developing with this.

[6SpeedTA95]

What part of the plains? forcasters here still have 20% chance of rain over the weekend.

[CrazyC83]

Farther north...like Nebraska/NE Kansas eastward...

It seems it will all start on Good Friday? I'm in disagreement on that one right now, but Saturday in the central and northern Plains and Easter Sunday in the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes is definitely fair game; although I don't (at this point) see the intensity as high as last week.

[Windy]

I'd be worried about the moisture return more than anything, especially on a cutoff low. Models have been overdoing it all season so far. The cap seems to be modeled pretty strong, too, though this far out all of that may change. I dunno. Still too far out. Looks like Sat/Sun will be the show, if there is one.

[weatherlover427]

This low is projected to bring us here in southern California some rain on Friday after first sinking down SW of San Diego, putting us in a dry and warm offshore flow for both tomorrow and Thursday. Models then project the low to move NE over our area on Friday. At least this is what I have heard.

[Weatherfreak14]

Is TN supposed to take part in any severe weather over easter weekend or later on than that. Cuz I'm leavin up towards the smokies near Gatlinburg.

[CrazyC83]

Is TN supposed to take part in any severe weather over easter weekend or later on than that. Cuz I'm leavin up towards the smokies near Gatlinburg.

At this point, I doubt it. Too far south. However that can quickly change.

[chizniz16]

I think Saturday spc will look something like this.


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[hpsupercell]

chizniz16, it will likely occur further to the east. More in the Lake M area.

[chizniz16]

That is more for Saturday, when the event starts to take off. Not for overnight or Sunday. This will struggle to be a 24 hour event, as the low moves east, into SE MN, or NE Iowa, it will quickly loose severe possibility. This will not be a wide spread event, this is not an ideal setup. However, states in the red will see good oppertunities for their severe weather. Also, it is way too early to pinpoint exact areas, maybe it will be further east, but not by much.

[hpsupercell]

I disagree. Let's say Sunday in Tennessee, Kentucky possibility gets to 84-87ºF. 570 heights coming over top of that will generate some nasty thunderstorms. Remember low-level warming that's just as much of an issue as the upper level cooling.

[chizniz16]

Isolated Thunderstorms are possible, but not nasty T-storms at all. I doubt there will be even a T-Storm watch put out during Sunday afternoon. This is a 24 event. Friday night to Saturday night. How can you disagree? Have you looked at anything for Sunday?

[hpsupercell]

Forecast models are a tool, not a 100% thing! I put two and two together with the help of a forecast model, but SCIENCE and logic is always used. I'm sticking to my thoughts and I don't care what you think. I don't have time to go in depth on why I think this will happen, but I might explain later.

[Brent]

Is TN supposed to take part in any severe weather over easter weekend or later on than that. Cuz I'm leavin up towards the smokies near Gatlinburg.

There's a slight chance of rain on Saturday, but otherwise, no. Anything that happens will likely not be severe and be VERY isolated. Should be near 80 in Gatlinburg this weekend.

[hpsupercell]

Why do you think it will be isolated because the models print out no moisture? Just because there's limited moisture doesn't mean thunderstorms cannot develop and become severe.

[chizniz16]

Forecast models are a tool, not a 100% thing! I put two and two together with the help of a forecast model, but SCIENCE and logic is always used. I'm sticking to my thoughts and I don't care what you think. I don't have time to go in depth on why I think this will happen, but I might explain later.

lol okay.. who said i was basing this on models? Look at the storm for what it's worth, not how or where YOU want it to be.

[CrazyC83]

At this point I am still downplaying this. I am not predicting a big outbreak right now. That could change though.

[Windy]

I dunno, hpsupercell -- moisture sure helps! I mean, yeah, you can gets some nice highbased hailers out of a high LCL environment, but nothing that screams "severe weather outbreak". Right now NAM progs ~55Tds over the area, and NAM's been overdoing it all year. It's not very deep moisture, either. Last go-around we had with the NAM, GFS, and later even RUC progged 60+ Td's here in SE Nebraska. We ended up with Tds around 50 with the good juice still stuck down in Kansas. Everything up here was crap, whereas a long lived supercell with a longtrack tornado formed in northcentral Kansas.

That said, if we can get some moisture up here and the cap isn't too strong, Saturday could be a pretty nice day for NE/KS. I'm underwhelmed about the moisture at the moment, though.

Even if it doesn't pan out, don't get down -- it's not even May yet!

[hpsupercell]

Looks like I was correct. Storms Sunday will be just as much of an issue as they were Saturday, if not more of an issue. I based my predictions on what will happen not what I want to happen.

Thanks Windy for the support!