During the day Saturday is when things really start to pick up, with a large area of continuous rain moves into the region and unloads on the middle Appalachians and the lower Hudson valley. HPC graphics show an additional one-half to one inch over the I-95 corridor during the day on Saturday.
The SPC also has the area from MD down to central FL under a slight risk, as a squall line is expected to develop in the northern part of this area and move E through the area that afternoon, not doing anything to help an area that has alreay received enough rain in the previous 24 hours.
The rain should continue through the night, though the intense parts should shift off the coast and into New England, where Sunday holds the potential for a couple of inches of rain there as well.
Most all of the local WFOs are mentioning the potential for Flash Flooding towards the end of the event, particularly LWX, RNK and AKQ because of the preceeding drought conditions through these areas. Flood Watches will probably be issued later today for the mountains up through central to northern WV, and Flood or Flash Flood watches for the DC and Baltimore metro areas as well as at least the northern half of AKQ's CWA. The Philadelphia metro area will probably receive a flood watch later this afternoon or tonight as well. Watches for upstate NY and western New England will probably not be issued, as the soil there is not as dry as it is further south.
Most storm total estimates from the local WFOs range from 2-3", with LWX mentioning up to 5" in their HWO and BTV recognizing a 4" call from the GFS in their AFD.
HPC QPF forecast for 12Z Friday - 12Z Monday:
And then the east gets hit again on Tuesday and Wednesday with another half inch or so of rain, just to make things a little worse. Definately a fun 5-day period for the eastern parts of the country . . .
