June 5- 30% HATCHED

[conestogo_flood]

SPC AC 041752

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT SUN JUN 04 2006

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM A
LARGE-SCALE PERSPECTIVE THIS PERIOD. RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A STRONG/HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED TROUGH MAKES
ONLY SLOW EWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. FAST
ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS
THE NWRN AND N CENTRAL CONUS...ON NRN FRINGES OF UPPER RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF SLY RETURN FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF ERN U.S. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LINGER OVER THE SRN
PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT -- AHEAD OF NRN U.S. SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH -- IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...AND SEWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE
THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- AND
ASSOCIATED BELT OF 35 TO 50 KT NWLY FLOW -- MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
AROUND NERN PORTIONS OF SWRN U.S. UPPER RIDGE.

STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT ABOVE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE
UVV ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A
WEAKENING CAP AND SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF COLD FRONT -- WHICH BY MID
AFTERNOON SHOULD EXTEND FROM WRN MN SSWWD ACROSS NEB INTO WRN KS.
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA...BUT WILL DEVELOP SWD WITH TIME INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
-- BOTH ALONG FRONT AND WITHIN SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

WITH INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT BELOW MODERATE/INCREASING SLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS. WITH
TIME...EXPECT STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS...WHICH WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MOVE RAPIDLY SWD DURING THE EVENING AS SLY
LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES BENEATH SEASONABLY-STRONG NNWLY FLOW
ALOFT.

THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL EVOLVE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN STORM MODE WHICH SHOULD BE INITIALLY
SUPERCELLULAR. WITH TIME...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS SRN NEB/KS AND INTO NRN OK AS ONE OR
MORE WELL-ORGANIZED MCS SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY SWD. SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS -- AIDED BY WARM
ADVECTION/LOW-LEVEL JET.

SHOULD CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED SCENARIO BECOME INCREASINGLY CERTAIN
WITH TIME...ADDITIONAL UPGRADES TO SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK MAY BE
NECESSARY.

[conestogo_flood]

No? Okay.

[wxmann_91]

No? Okay.

I don't know.

[CrazyC83]

Tough forecast. Right now I think it is overdone, but things change fast...

[dean]

i know a couple people who will be heading out tomorrow, i'll just be spotting tomorrow if anything happens to pop up around my area.

[CrazyC83]

45-hatched now and Moderate Risk. Damaging winds main threat (not a big tornado threat).

It think it will be a major squall line from the beginning.

[CrazyC83]

Now we have action going on...lots of warnings out there and two watches (the southern one, IMO, should be a PDS)

[CrazyC83]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

Risk suddenly increased over the central United States, to a Level 3 risk in the southern parts and a Level 2 risk over a wide area.

Nonetheless, tornadoes are not expected to be an issue; strong winds are the main threat.

[conestogo_flood]

There is nothing going on in eastern Kansas/Nebraska. It's already 6pm.

[wxmann_91]

Not suprising given the high 700/850 mb temps resulting in a stout cap.

EDIT: I should've looked at the radar or at least the time of the post, never mind.

[conestogo_flood]

Overhype? Yup.

[CrazyC83]

Overhype? Yup.

Agreed, although we have to wait and see what the wind reports will be. It was never a real tornado threat.

[dean]

Overhype? Yup.

definately, and was it the first time of the season? try about the 6th or 7th time.

[CrazyC83]

Overhype? Yup.

definately, and was it the first time of the season? try about the 6th or 7th time.

I'm going to work on a list signifying the levels issued and what actually happened. The Moderate Risk was unnecessary based on their requirements though. I would have held it at a 30-hatched Slight Risk. (Mind you, I think the words are too weak and the standards should be lowered, with a new "Extreme Risk" category for 30-hatched/45 or greater risk for tornadoes or 60-hatched for winds)

Here are the categories I would use:

Tornadoes

2 - SLGT, 5 - SLGT, 10 - SLGT/MDT*, 15 - MDT/HIGH*, 30 - HIGH/EXT*, 45 - EXT, 60 - EXT

Wind

5 - SLGT, 15 - SLGT, 30 - SLGT/MDT*, 45 - MDT/HIGH*, 60 - HIGH/EXT*

Hail

5 - none, 15 - SLGT, 30 - SLGT, 45 - MDT, 60 - MDT/HIGH*

Cumulative Day 2 and 3

5 - SLGT, 15 - SLGT, 30 - SLGT/MDT*, 45 - MDT/HIGH*, 60 - HIGH