Rainy weather for SE Texas

[Extremeweatherguy]

The rain has started in Spring!

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is scary:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 011930
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
245 PM CDT SAT JUL 1 2006

...PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ON THE WAY...

.DISCUSSION...
VERY CONCERNING SET OF 12Z MODEL RUNS TODAY. EVEN DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROFFINESS IN THE WESTERN GULF SET TO BEGIN
COMING INLAND SUNDAY AND INCREASE EVEN MORE ON MONDAY - AND PERSIST
INTO A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. HERE`S A TABLE DEPICTING MODEL
AVERAGE PW VALUES IN SE TX THIS MIDWEEK:

SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
GFS 2.0-2.2" 2.3-2.4" 2.3-2.4" 2.1-2.3" 2.1-2.4" 1.7-2.3"
NAM 2.0-2.4" 2.2-2.4" 2.1-2.3"

THE HIGH PW VALUES SHOWN ABOVE ARE KNOWN TO PRODUCE THE TORRENTIAL
2-4"/HR RAINFALL RATES DESPITE WHETHER THERE IS A BOUNDARY TO WORK
OFF OF OR NOT. AND AS WE ALL VERY WELL KNOW - EVEN WITHOUT A
DISTINCT SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE TO ACT AS A TRIGGER/FOCUS - WEAK
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FREQUENTLY DEVELOP IN THE WEAK FLOW REGIMES
LIKE WE ARE IN (OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, SEABREEZE/BAYBREEZE, ETC).
EXTREMELY CONCERNED ABOUT THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO PLAYING OUT AND
WOULD NOT DOUBT IF LOCALIZED 8-12+ INCH AMOUNTS OCCURRED SOMEWHERE
IN OUR CWA DURING THE NEXT 2-5 DAYS...AND POSSIBLY IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. IN ADDITION...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS ALSO FAVORING A
HEAVY RAIN EVENT AS THE MID LEVEL LOW NOW IN W TX IS FCST TO SLOWLY
GET PUSHED BACK EASTWARD TOWARD US EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE WESTERN
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD BACK IN (THOUGH MODELS NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT
ON PLACEMENT/TIMING JUST YET).

UNFORTUNATELY...WITHOUT SEEING SOMETHING MORE DISTINCT...WE`RE JUST
NOT ABLE TO PINPOINT THE HIGHEST THREAT AREA ATTM. SUSPECT WE`LL END
UP NEED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH IN THE 18-24 HOURS...BUT THINK WE`LL
HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO LOOK AT ANOTHER 1-2 SETS OF FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO
SEE IF ANYTHING CHANGES OR WE CAN NARROW DOWN THE THREAT AREA.
ANTICIPATE DECREASED PRECIP COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY START OUT SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH PRECIP BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH DAYTIME HEATING (CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID
80S). PROBABLY HAVE A SIMILAR DIURNAL PATTERN OCCUR INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNTIL IF/WHEN THE UPPER LOW GETS A BIT CLOSER AND CORE RAINS
BECOME A CONCERN.

THOUGH SOME AREAS WILL GET A GOOD SOAKING ON SUN - MOST CONCERNED
ABOUT MON/TUE AT THIS TIME. WILL WORRY ABOUT THE 2ND HALF OF THE
WEEK LATER AS DETAILS ARE BOUND TO CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...BUT
THE PRECIP FOCUS MAY SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES BEYOND THURS AS A
WEAK FRONT BACKDOORS INTO N/NE TX AND POSSIBLY PROVIDES A LLVL
FOCUS. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATED HWO LATER THIS AFTN. 47

Looks like the 4th will be a WET one! Stay safe everyone!

[Johnny]

Lots of convection firing up in the western sections of Southeast, Texas this afternoon. After looking over the discussions, we are in for some serious rain for quite some time. This could get pretty nasty after it is all said and done. Now if a tropical system moves into our area over the next week then I really don't know what to say. LOL

[Extremeweatherguy]

Lots of convection firing up in the western sections of Southeast, Texas this afternoon. After looking over the discussions, we are in for some serious rain for quite some time. This could get pretty nasty after it is all said and done. Now if a tropical system moves into our area over the next week then I really don't know what to say. LOL

Although one good thing from a tropical system would be that it would likely take all the moisture with it and dry us out.

[Johnny]

Although one good thing from a tropical system would be that it would likely take all the moisture with it and dry us out.

Not necessarily but likely. The scenario that is being painted right now is bad enough. It's gonna be one wet s.o.b. for a good while it looks like.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest NAM run:

Tomorrow afternoon = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _024.shtml **heavy GOM rains spreading north**

Monday Afternoon = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _048.shtml **VERY wet! Low pressure sitting right over SE Texas**

Tuesday Afternoon (4th of July) = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml **More rain**