Catastrophic Vermont flooding predicted

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http://www.wcax.com/Global/story.asp?S=6134110&nav=4QcS

Winooski Ice jam, ghosts of 92, fan flooding fears in Montpelier

MONTPELIER, Vt. -- Jet Skis cruised down Main Street. People in canoes and rowboats floated past the Statehouse. Rescuers used duck blinds and backhoes to move people to safety from the cold, brown floodwaters.

Nearly 15 years ago, an ice jam in the Winooski River caused catastrophic flooding in Vermont's capital. Now, officials are warning it could happen again _ and telling people to prepare for it.

Now sections of the river are frozen solid, triggering fears of a repeat of the March 11, 1992 flood that caused millions of dollars in damage.

Engineers say it's the first time since records have been kept that the river in Montpelier has been so packed with ice in what is called a "freeze up jam," said Barry Cahoon, state rivers program manager for the Department of Environmental Conservation.

This year's jam was caused by unseasonably warm weather through mid-January followed by an extended period of bitter cold. Now, stretches of the Winooski _ from Montpelier's downtown to where it flows under Interstate 89 _ are frozen solid with what experts call "frazzle ice," Cahoon said.

If the weather turns suddenly warm or heavy rains fall, it could be trouble.

"I think there's a real flood danger," said Police Chief Doug Hoyt. "It all depends on the weather. We could have a nice, easy, slow spring and skate on out of here. We could have a real hot spell and get a lot of rain and we may sail out of here."

Boutique owner Sarah Merritt has conflicting memories of the 1992 flood.

"It was so much fun. School was closed. I think the bus just dropped us off downtown," said Merritt, who was a 14-year-old ninth grader when it happened.

Now co-owner of Damsels, a women's store on Main Street she has a different perspective.

"It was devastating," she said, pointing to the high-water line. "I don't know what it would do to our town."

Downtown Montpelier, located around the point where the North Branch empties into the Winooski, has a history of flooding. The most famous flood was in 1927, when water was 8 feet deep in downtown streets.

In 1992, heavy late-winter rains combined with an ice jam just below where the North Branch empties into the Winooski River. The fast rising flood caught everyone by surprise.

City schools opened normally that morning. Businesses were preparing to open their doors. But by 8 a.m., it was clear the river was rising.

When a neighbor called to tell her, Ruth McCullough waded across Main Street to her job at the Kellogg-Hubbard Library. By then, water was accumulating in the basement, where 20,000 children's books were stored.

McCullough called other library staff to come help move books and equipment out of the basement. Before long, the staff was joined by volunteers, some of whom were teachers from the nearby elementary school, which by that time had been dismissed.

"People just showed up," she said.

By noon, they'd moved all the books and computer equipment out of the basement. They even took the posters off the wall. Before the day ended, the water was up to the basement ceiling.

Hundreds were evacuated from apartments, businesses and stalled cars. Every downtown business and every Montpelier resident who was here at the time has their story of the flood.

The Associated Press bureau was evacuated. A staffer persuaded an official in a Boston Whaler to help move its computer equipment to higher ground.

Using a crane, city workers broke up the ice jam late that day, allowing the river to flow normally and prompting the floodwaters to recede. But the crisis wasn't over. The next day, State Police were posted at every intersection. Residents and business owners needed permits to return.

The final damage estimate was about $5 million, the city said. It took some businesses months to recover.

For years, the city left a crane parked on the edge of town, to be used to break up ice jams. The crane remains there, but Cahoon says it may not do much good this time around because it would have to clear solid ice from a mile of river.

At Kellogg-Hubbard Library, the children's section has been moved out of the basement. A 2000 renovation strengthened and sealed the foundation, which would, hopefully, keep water from reaching the basement, McCullough said.

But there are alternatives.

"If you can elevate the flow and the temperature, even just a few tenths of a degree, over time you can erode away a substantial amount of material," Cahoon said.

City officials are considering doing that by releasing warmer water from the Wrightsville Reservoir, a few miles up the North Branch, Cahoon said.

For now, people are just watching weather forecasts _ and praying for a gradual melt.

"People shouldn't panic," Cahoon said. "But people need to be alert. This is Montpelier city, it's in a hazardous spot."