PA/NJ Flood Watch

[angelwing]

Here is a current Flood Watch for Home (Philadelphia, PA) until 7:00pm, Fri Mar 16 2007, from your local National Weather Service office.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
419 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

...FLOOD THREAT WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
SIGNIFICANT RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION...
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNE'S-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA
419 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR DELAWARE...THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...MUCH OF NEW JERSEY...AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

* FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING

* A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONT, REACHING
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY, THEN BECOME HEAVIER
AND STEADIER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
CLOSER TO THE REGION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WILL
PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION, WITH UP TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS, ALL
BY SATURDAY MORNING.

RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGHOUT THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT
RISES IF THIS EVENT UNFOLDS AS FORECASTED. MANY SMALLER STREAMS...SUCH
AS THE PERKIOMEN, NESHAMINY, BRANDYWINE, AND CHRISTINA MAY RISE
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ON FRIDAY, AND THE MAIN STEM RIVERS, SUCH AS THE
PASSAIC, RARITAN, LEHIGH, SCHUYLKILL, AND DELAWARE RIVERS WILL
EXPERIENCE MAJOR RISES AS WELL. AN AGGRAVATING FACTOR FOR ANY
FLOODING POTENTIAL ALONG THE LEHIGH AND DELAWARE RIVERS IS THE
EXISTING SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER PORTIONS OF BOTH WATERSHEDS. ANYWHERE
BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES OF WATER IS STORED IN THAT SNOWPACK, AND IF
IT MELTS FAST ENOUGH AND IN ENOUGH QUANTITY, FLOODING COULD ENSUE
ALONG BOTH RIVERS. RESIDENTS ALONG ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE URGED TO
MONITOR THE UNFOLDING WEATHER SITUATION AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD THE NEED ARISE. THE MAJORITY OF THE
RIVERS IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY ARE ICE FREE AT THIS
TIME. EVEN THOUGH SOME ICE EXISTS IN THE NEW YORK PORTION OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER, THE THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING IS MINIMAL AT BEST.

ONE WAY TO KEEP ABREAST OF EXISTING AND FORECASTED WATER CONDITIONS
ON WATERWAYS THROUGHOUT THE REGION IS TO MONITOR THE ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) AVAILABLE ON OUR HOMEPAGE AT
http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI. JUST CLICK ON THE AHPS ICON ON THE LEFT HAND
MENU.

DESPITE THE APPROACHING NEW MOON ON SATURDAY, COASTAL FLOODING DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN FROM THIS STORM SINCE THE LOW WILL
BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW.

AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION, COLDER AIR WILL RETURN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE
TO SNOW BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT, AND SEVERAL INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY NORTH, AS WELL AS IN NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING ALONG STREAMS
AND CREEKS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS
REQUIREMENTS. KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR ACTION IF FLOODING
IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

[Category 5]

81 degrees today. 79 right now.

Almost a thunderstorm like feel to the air now.

[angelwing]

76 here and the skies are getting dark...10 to 1 we get a t-storm, the winds have picked up in the last 10 minutes

[Stephanie]

It's pouring outside right now. On the way home from Atlantic City this evening, the clouds grew darker and heavier as I got closer to home. VERY ominous looking.

Winter is not leaving without a fight!

[angelwing]

[web]http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/Loop/northeast_loop.gif[/web]

[angelwing]

Flood Watch
(Expires: Saturday March 17 8:00AM EDT)

new castle-kent de-inland sussex-delaware beaches-cecil-kent md-
queen anne's-talbot-caroline-middlesex-western monmouth-
eastern monmouth-mercer-salem-gloucester-camden-
northwestern burlington-ocean-cumberland-atlantic-cape may-
atlantic coastal cape may-coastal atlantic-coastal ocean-
southeastern burlington-chester-delaware-philadelphia-
including the cities of...wilmington...dover...georgetown...
rehoboth beach...elkton...chestertown...centreville...easton...
denton...new brunswick...freehold...sandy hook...trenton...
pennsville...glassboro...camden...cherry hill...moorestown...
mount holly...jackson...millville...hammonton...
cape may court house...ocean city...atlantic city...
long beach island...wharton state forest...west chester...media
350 am edt fri mar 16 2007

...flood watch remains in effect through saturday morning...

the flood watch continues for

* the pennsylvania counties of chester, delaware and philadelphia,
for all new jersey counties from mercer and middlesex southward,
for all of delaware, and for the maryland counties of cecil,
kent, queen anne's, talbot and caroline.

* through saturday morning

* low pressure, centered over georgia early this morning, will
progress to the northeast. it is forecast to move off the coast
near the virginia capes this evening before passing to the east
of delaware and new jersey overnight. the low is expected to
reach the eastern tip of long island early on saturday morning.

* as the low approaches from the south, precipitation will
continue in southeastern pennsylvania, southern new jersey,
delaware and northeastern maryland. rain will become heavy at
times today. rainfall totals of one and a half to two and a half
inches are expected, with locally higher amounts possible. the
rain may mix with snow and sleet at times today in parts of
southeastern pennsylvania, central and southwestern new jersey
and the far upper delmarva, before changing to all snow tonight.
runoff from the heavy rain could cause flooding on streams and
rivers in the area.

a flood watch means that conditions are favorable for heavy rain and
flooding along streams and rivers. if you live in a location that
is prone to flooding, be prepared to take action if a warning is
issued.

you can get the latest information on existing and forecast river
levels through the advanced hydrologic prediction service (ahps).
the service is available on the national weather service mount holly
homepage at http://www.weather.gov/phi.

Winter Weather Advisory
(Expires: Saturday March 17 8:00AM EDT)

new castle-cecil-middlesex-western monmouth-mercer-salem-
gloucester-camden-northwestern burlington-chester-delaware-
philadelphia-
including the cities of...wilmington...elkton...new brunswick...
freehold...trenton...pennsville...glassboro...camden...
cherry hill...moorestown...mount holly...west chester...media
446 am edt fri mar 16 2007

...winter weather advisory in effect from 4 pm this afternoon to
8 am edt saturday...

the national weather service in mount holly has issued a winter
weather advisory...which is in effect from 4 pm this afternoon to
8 am edt saturday.

low pressure over the southeastern states will strengthen as it
moves slowly northeastward along the cold front that moved southward
through our area thursday. upper level energy racing southeastward
from the great lakes will interact with this system and energize
it. this developing nor'easter will move off the north carolina
coast tonight and pass just east of the delaware and new jersey
coasts early saturday. the result will be a period of wintry
weather for today into early saturday.

rain this morning will begin mixing with sleet and snow by midday,
and gradually change to sleet and snow this afternoon or this evening.
there could also be some freezing rain later this afternoon as
temperatures fall into the lower 30s or around 30. periods of snow
and sleet, possibly with some rain or freezing rain this
evening, will continue into tonight, and possibly into saturday.
snowfall rates will be relatively light, mostly less than an inch
per hour...but storm total accumulations later this afternoon and
tonight are forecast to be 1 to 3 inches, and locally 4 inches,
with some of this accumulation in the form of sleet. the heaviest
snowfall will likely fall later in the day today and into the
overnight period.

because of the recent warmth, snow may be slow to accumulate at
first. however, the snow could be of the wet and heavy variety, which
would make the clearing of snow more difficult. dangerous traveling
conditions are possible from this afternoon into early saturday.

a winter weather advisory means that periods of snow...sleet...or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while
driving.