Very Heavy Rains possible for LA

[PTrackerLA]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
214 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2003

CURRENTLY...SCT CU ACROSS THE CWA BUT THE ONLY SHRA ARE IN THE SE
MARINE ZONES AND EVEN THAT IS JUST ISOLD. AS EXPECTED...THE WEAK
FRONT HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO ALLOW FOR A NICE DAY TODAY.

TODAY'S WX WON'T LAST TOO LONG HOWEVER. A TRICKY FCST IS IN THE WORKS
WITH A LOW OVER THE YUCATAN FCSTD TO COME OUR WAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO DISAGREE ON THE PATH OF THIS LOW ALTHOUGH THEY SEEM TO AGREE THAT
OUR AREA COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME PRETTY HEAVY RAINFALL THE FIRST
PART OF THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS THE START OF THIS PRECIP...THE ETA BRINGS THE LOW UP TO THE
NORTH AND MAKING LANDFALL ON THE SE TX COAST. THIS WOULD MEAN THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER OUR AREA STARTING EARLY MON AM. THE GFS SHOWS
TWO AREAS OF ENERGY...ONE MOVING THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE SUN PM AND
THE LOW ITSELF MOVING ONSHORE NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER ON TUES AM. THE
NOGAPS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE PRECIP WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA
BUT LATEST RUN DOESN'T APPEAR TO HAVE A HANDLE ON WHAT THE LOW IS
CURRENTLY DOING.

THEREFORE...WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE ETA SOLUTION FOR NOW AND
BRING IN 50% POPS FOR MONDAY DURING THE DAY FOR ALL AREAS (WITH 30%
STARTING IN ALL ZONES EXCEPT NW SUN NIGHT). IF THIS LOW DOES TAKE A
NORTHERLY TRACK WHICH IS WHAT THE ETA AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING
(JUST WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES) CENTRAL LA COULD BE IN FOR SOME
PRETTY HEAVY RAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW PW VALUES OF
2.3 TO 2.5 INCHES AS THIS LOW MOVES ONSHORE. WILL NOT MENTION THIS
ANYWHERE IN THE ZONES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF THE WHOLE SITUATION.

WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS IN THE FCST THROUGH WED AFTER WHICH WILL JUST
REVERT TO A SUMMERTIME-AFTN TSRA PATTERN.

Well our forecasters sure have flip-flopped because yesterday the thinking was that the heaviest rain would be east of us but now it looks like we could be in the bulls-eye. Hopefully it tracks into Texas where they really need the rain.