Here's the Summer Outlook for this year:
Looking over data for La Nina Springs/Outgoing winter the 3 years that look closest to this summer are
1974.....................1989........................2000
However...
Looking over the stage the La Nina is headed (weakening) I do not think this is a HOT summer. My thinking is we'll see the heat in Mid June to Early July with near normal temps in August. This will make areas North of NC-ARK-COLO-NEVADA "SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL" for temps this summer. This would be the Northern half of the USA as far as temps are concerned.
La Nina Update...
This makes the normally HOT LA NINA summers not as likely. Precip and ground moisture has been good to above normal in most areas east of the Rockies and this will keep the HEAT in more of a slighty above normal +1 to +1.5 vs. HOT at +4 to +6.
So PRECIP from La Ninas above indicate some moisture on the east and a bit dry in Central US. No regions were very very dry or very very wet. The Mississippi Valley has been very wet all spring and I see this flowing right into June.
Summer will be defined as June 1 to August 31.
Regional Summer Outlooks will be in another blog to follow, this is just an overall
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 830 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2008 SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS THE MAIN FACTORS WHICH USUALLY INFLUENCE THE SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK INCLUDE:
1) EL NINO AND LA NINA - WHICH COMPRISE EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION OR ENSO.
2) TRENDS - APPROXIMATED BY THE OCN TOOL AS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MOST RECENT 10-YEAR MEAN OF TEMPERATURE OR 15-YEAR MEAN OF PRECIPITATION FOR A GIVEN LOCATION AND TIME OF YEAR AND THE 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGY PERIOD (CURRENTLY 1971-2000). continue reading here...
Source: Rob Guarino Blog
