Sanibel wrote:SW flow for several days now. Juicy humidity and lingering convection clouds drifting all around. Summery. Any time now.
conditions positive again today eastern half, those are pretty impressive parameters, imagine if this was late season with a dry line pushing through into this airmass.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1014 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008
UPDATE
..GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
MID/HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD ALTOCUMULUS THIS MORNING IS
INDICATIVE OF INCREASING MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND INDEED THE
12Z MIAMI RAOB SHOWED 500MB TEMPS HAVE COOLED NEARLY 2C SINCE 12Z
YESTERDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO STAYING UP TODAY WITH
DEWPOINTS HOLDING STEADY IN THE 72 TO 75 RANGE ACROSS THE EAST
HALF. THIS COMBINATION WHEN MODIFYING THE 12Z SOUNDING FOR
EXPECTED AFTERNOON CONDITIONS YIELDS 4800 J/KG OF CAPE WITH A -10C
LIFTED INDEX. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IS PRESENT TODAY AS A
RESULT...AND LOCAL MICROBURST CALCULATIONS SUGGEST A HIGH CHANCE
OF MICROBURSTS NEAR OR EXCEEDING SEVERE LEVELS TODAY. EAST AND
WEST COAST SEA BREEZES SHOULD FIRE CONVECTION BY NOON OR 1PM AND
ANY CONVECTION WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ONCE IT DEVELOPS. THERE ARE
SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON
AS EVEN THOUGH THE SEA BREEZE MAY MOVE INLAND A LITTLE WAYS
ANYTHING DEVELOPING ALONG IT MAY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST...BUT A LOT DEPENDS ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS WELL. GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY/MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE EXPANDED THE
LIKELY POPS ALL THE WAY TO THE EAST COAST AND MENTIONED GUSTY WIND
AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBILITY IN THE ZONES.
ALSO...SEVERAL REPORTS OF WATERSPOUTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING WITH THE SMALL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
THERE. THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS DUE TO
THE NEARLY CALM WINDS BELOW 8000FT IN THE MORNING SOUNDING.
/STRASSBERG
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.
..REMARKS..
0942 AM WATER SPOUT 10 SE FORT LAUDERDALE 26.02N 80.04W
06/21/2008 AMZ651 FL AIRPLANE PILOT
RELAYED REPORT RECEIVED THROUGH MIAMI CWSU.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1005 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A
* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
* UNTIL 1100 AM EDT
* AT 1003 AM EDT...A REPORT WAS RECEIVED OF A WATERSPOUT ABOUT 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST FOR FORT LAUDERDALE AT 942 AM. ANOTHER REPORT WAS RECEIVED
OF A WATERSPOUT POSSIBLY DEVELOPING NEAR BOCA RATON. THE SHOWERS THAT
WERE PRODUCING THERE SPOUTS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS.