New Weather Math experiment. new indexes. feedback please.

[MonsoonDude]

This is an Experimental Project for these areas only. This is for today, August 18th 2003. The
descriptions show the percent of severe potential. 100% being the most it can get, 0% being the least.
at the bottom of each column, it shows a line of numbers with percents. some have a plus sign , and
some have a negative sign. the plus signs show that that severe ingredient MUST BE THERE. at the end
I add up every positive percent, and come up with a percentage. i think take that percentage and
divide it by the most possible percentage of all 6 positve ingredients. I then get the number of
possible severe weather for the day for that area.
========================================================================================================
NEWEST ADDITION TO THE FORECASTING IS CAPE, HELICITY, SHOWALTER INDEX, CONVECTIVE TEMP, BASE LEVEL FOR
T-STORMS, LIFTED INDEX, TOTAL TOTALS, AND SWEAT INDEX OR Severe Weather ThrEAT. Hope you like it.

Eastern Arizona/New Mexico Border.

The air will need moisture content today. 25% YES

The temperature will be 78 degrees with a 55 or higher dewpoint, the air will be fairly unstable. 40% YES

With the 850MB winds being at 19 knots , ill defined Low Level Jet is in place. 20% YES

Southeast Wind at the Surface-NO, Southwest wind at 700MB-YES, Northwest Jet at 300MB-YES

Jet stream Winds at 19 knots, for Small Divergence. 20% YES

500MB winds show Low But Positive Divergence. 20% YES

CAPE INDEX will be marginally unstable. 20%

SWEAT INDEX will be 150 or unlikely. 20%

LIFTED INDEX will be at +2 or stable. 20%

SHOWALTER INDEX will be 1 to -2. 42%

HELICITY INDEX shows NO tornado formation will happen.

TOTAL TOTALS are at 49-50. 67.5%

OUTLOOK for Northeastern Arizona/New Mexico Border storms today.

THE POSITIVES MEAN THAT FACTOR MUST BE THERE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEGATIVE, NOT NEED BUT HELPS

25% YES+
40% YES+
20% YES+
0% YES+
100% YES-
100% YES-
20% YES+
20% YES+
20% YES+
20% YES+
20% YES+
42% YES+
67.5% YES+

294.5% all added up. 27% Severe Potential-
The Cloud Base for today will be around 12,500 feet.(INW)
The Convective Temperature will be around 88 degrees.
But since this area is in the mountains, the Convective temp will not be needed.
========================================================================================================
TUCSON AREA SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL

The air will be Semi Juicy today. 50% YES

The temperature will be 97 degrees with a 55 or higher dewpoint, the air will be Extremly unstable. 80% YES

With the 850MB winds being at 26 knots , a ill defined Jet is in place. 20% YES

Southeast Wind at the Surface-NO, Southwest wind at 700MB-YES, Northwest Jet at 300MB-YES

Jet stream Winds at 14 knots, for Small Divergence. 20% YES

500MB winds show Low But Positive Divergence. 20% YES

CAPE INDEX will be marginally unstable. 20%

SWEAT INDEX will be 125 or unlikely. 20%

LIFTED INDEX will be at +2 or stable. 20%

SHOWALTER INDEX will be 1 to -2. 42%

HELICITY INDEX shows NO tornado formation will happen.

TOTAL TOTALS are at 47-48. 54%

OUTLOOK for Tucson Area storms today.

50% YES+
80% YES+
20% YES+
0% YES+
100% YES-
100% YES-
20% YES+
20% YES+
20% YES+
20% YES+
20% YES+
42% YES+
54% YES+


346% all added up. 31% Severe Potential
The Cloud Base for today will be around 12,800 feet.(TUS)
The Convective Temperature will be around 92 degrees.
Since the Convective temperature meets the actual temp for today, expect convection all around this
area today.
========================================================================================================
PHOENIX AREA STORM POTENTIAL

The air will be Semi Juicy today. 50% YES

The temperature will be 105 degrees with a 55 or higher dewpoint, the air will be incredibly unstable. 100% YES

With the 850MB winds being at 31 knots , a Decent Low Level Jet is in place. 60% YES

Southeast Wind at the Surface-NO, Southwest wind at 700MB-YES, Northwest Jet at 300MB-YES

Jet stream Winds at 31 knots, for Marginal Divergence. 40% YES

500MB winds show Low But Positive Divergence. 20% YES

CAPE INDEX will be marginally unstable. 20%

SWEAT INDEX will be 100 or unlikely. 20%

LIFTED INDEX will be at +3 or stable. 20%

SHOWALTER INDEX will be 1 to 4. 28%

HELICITY INDEX shows NO tornado formation will happen.

TOTAL TOTALS are at 45-46. 37.5%

OUTLOOK for Phoenix Area storms today.

50% YES+
100% YES+
60% YES+
0% YES+
100% YES-
100% YES-
40% YES+
20% YES+
20% YES+
20% YES+
20% YES+
28% YES+
37.5% YES+

395.5% all added up. 36% Severe Potential
The Cloud Base for today will be around 11,000 feet.(PHX)
The Convective Temperature will be around 110 degrees.
Since the Convective Temperature might fail to reach the surface temperature for today, Convection will
probably NOT happen at all today in, or around this area.
========================================================================================================
Coachella Valley, Southern California.

The air will be Semi Juicy today. 50% YES

The temperature will be 107 degrees with a 55 or higher dewpoint, the air will be incredibly unstable. 100% YES

With the 850MB winds being at 21 knots , an ill defined Jet is in place. 20% YES

Southeast Wind at the Surface-YES, Southwest wind at 700MB-YES, Northwest Jet at 300MB-YES

Jet stream Winds at 12 knots, for Small Divergence. 20% YES

500MB winds show Low But Positive Divergence. 20% YES

CAPE INDEX will be stable. 0%

SWEAT INDEX will be 50 or unlikely. 20%

LIFTED INDEX will be at +9 or stable. 20%

SHOWALTER INDEX will be 8. 14%

HELICITY INDEX shows NO tornado formation will happen.

TOTAL TOTALS are at 49-50. 12.5%

COACHELLA VALLEY STORM POTENTiAL

50% YES+
100% YES+
20% YES+
100% YES+
100% YES-
100% YES-
20% YES+
20% YES+
0% YES+
20% YES+
20% YES+
14% YES+
12.5% YES+

376.5% all added up. and 34% Severe Potential
The Cloud Base for today will be around 7,000 feet.(NJK)
The Convective Temperature will be around 105 degrees.
Thunderstorms are possible in and around this area today.
========================================================================================================

Tucson, and the Eastern Arizona/New Mexico Border will most likely be the worst storms today.
the further east you go, the Tougher storms you'll get.

Kevin Martin

[MonsoonDude]

This is an Experimental Project for these areas only. This is for today, August 20th 2003. The
descriptions show the percent of severe potential. 100% being the most it can get, 0% being the least.
at the bottom of each column, it shows a line of numbers with percents. some have a plus sign , and
some have a negative sign. the plus signs show that that severe ingredient MUST BE THERE. at the end
I add up every positive percent, and come up with a percentage. i think take that percentage and
divide it by the most possible percentage of all 6 positve ingredients. I then get the number of
possible severe weather for the day for that area.
========================================================================================================
NEWEST ADDITION TO THE FORECASTING IS CAPE, HELICITY, SHOWALTER INDEX, CONVECTIVE TEMP, BASE LEVEL FOR
T-STORMS, LIFTED INDEX, TOTAL TOTALS, AND SWEAT INDEX OR Severe Weather ThrEAT. Hope you like it.

Eastern Arizona/New Mexico Border.

The air will Semi-Juicy today. 50% YES

The temperature will be 86 degrees with a 55 or higher dewpoint, the air will be very unstable. 60% YES

With the 850MB winds being at 17 knots , ill defined Low Level Jet is in place. 20% YES

Southeast Wind at the Surface-YES, Southwest wind at 700MB-YES, pretty strong Jet at 300MB-YES

Jet stream Winds at 30 knots, for Small Divergence. 20% YES

500MB winds show Low But Positive Divergence. 20% YES

CAPE INDEX will be stable. 0%

SWEAT INDEX will be 150 or unlikely. 0%

LIFTED INDEX will be at +1 or stable. 0%

SHOWALTER INDEX will be 1 to -2 or Increasing Chance of Thunderstorms. 33.2%

HELICITY INDEX shows NO tornado formation will happen.

TOTAL TOTALS are at 47-58 or scattered thunderstorms/isolated severe. 43%

OUTLOOK for Northeastern Arizona/New Mexico Border storms today.

THE POSITIVES MEAN THAT FACTOR MUST BE THERE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEGATIVE, NOT NEED BUT HELPS

50% YES+
60% YES+
20% YES+
100% YES+
100% YES-
100% YES-
20% YES+
20% YES+
0% YES+
0% YES+
0% YES+
33.2% YES+
43% YES+

346.2% all added up. 31% Severe Potential-
The Cloud Base for today will be around 12,000 feet.(INW)
The Convective Temperature will be around 80 degrees.
But since this area is in the mountains, the Convective temp will not be needed.
========================================================================================================
TUCSON AREA SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL

The air will be Juicy today. 75% YES

The temperature will be 93 degrees with a 55 or higher dewpoint, the air will be Extremly unstable. 80% YES

With the 850MB winds being at 23 knots , a ill defined Jet is in place. 20% YES

Southeast Wind at the Surface-YES, Southwest wind at 700MB-YES, pretty strong Jet at 300MB-YES

Jet stream Winds at 50 knots, for Small Divergence. 20% YES

500MB winds show Low But Positive Divergence. 20% YES

CAPE INDEX will be Moderately unstable. 40%

SWEAT INDEX will be 150 or unlikely. 0%

LIFTED INDEX will be at 0 or Thunderstorms Possible-trigger needed. 20%

SHOWALTER INDEX will be 1 to -2 or Increasing Chance of Thunderstorms. 33.2%

HELICITY INDEX shows a Value of 150-200, so Weak Tornadoes are possible.

TOTAL TOTALS are at 47-58 or scattered thunderstorms/isolated severe. 43%

OUTLOOK for Tucson Area storms today.

75% YES+
80% YES+
20% YES+
100% YES+
100% YES-
100% YES-
20% YES+
20% YES+
40% YES+
0% YES+
20% YES+
33.2% YES+
43% YES+


446.2% all added up. 41% Severe Potential
The Cloud Base for today will be around 11,500 feet.(TUS)
The Convective Temperature will be around 91 degrees.
Since the Convective temperature meets the actual temp for today, expect convection all around this
area today mostly to the East and West.
========================================================================================================
PHOENIX AREA STORM POTENTIAL

The air will be Juicy today. 75% YES

The temperature will be 94 degrees with a 55 or higher dewpoint, the air will be Extremly unstable. 80% YES

With the 850MB winds being at 19 knots , a Decent Low Level Jet is in place. 20% YES

Southeast Wind at the Surface-YES, Southwest wind at 700MB-YES, pretty strong Jet at 300MB-YES

Jet stream Winds at 50 knots, for Small Divergence. 20% YES

500MB winds show Low But Positive Divergence. 20% YES

CAPE INDEX will be stable. 0%

SWEAT INDEX will be 150 or unlikely. 0%

LIFTED INDEX will be at 0 or Thunderstorms Possible-trigger needed. 20%

SHOWALTER INDEX will be 1 to -2 or Increasing Chance of Thunderstorms. 33.2%

HELICITY INDEX shows NO tornado formation will happen.

TOTAL TOTALS are 47-58 or scattered thunderstorms/isolated severe. 43%

OUTLOOK for Phoenix Area storms today.

75% YES+
80% YES+
20% YES+
100% YES+
100% YES-
100% YES-
20% YES+
20% YES+
0% YES+
0% YES+
20% YES+
33.2% YES+
43% YES+

411.2% all added up. 37% Severe Potential
The Cloud Base for today will be around 9,000 feet.(PHX)
The Convective Temperature will be around 100 degrees.
Since the Convective Temperature might fail to reach the surface temperature for today, Convection will
probably NOT happen at all today in, or around this area. The only way this area will receive some
storms is if they come from the more favorable areas in drift in.
========================================================================================================
Coachella Valley, Southern California.

The air will be Juicy today. 75% YES

The temperature will be 93 degrees with a 55 or higher dewpoint, the air will be Extremly unstable. 80% YES

With the 850MB winds being at 20 knots , an ill defined Jet is in place. 20% YES

Southeast Wind at the Surface-YES, Southwest wind at 700MB-YES, pretty strong Jet at 300MB-YES

Jet stream Winds at 33 knots, for Small Divergence. 20% YES

500MB winds show Low But Positive Divergence. 20% YES

CAPE INDEX will be stable. 0%

SWEAT INDEX will be 125 or unlikely. 0%

LIFTED INDEX will be at +1 or stable. 0%

SHOWALTER INDEX will be 1 to 4 or Thunderstorms Possible-trigger needed. 13.2%

HELICITY INDEX shows NO tornado formation will happen.

TOTAL TOTALS are at 43-44 or Isolated Thunderstorms. 14.3%

COACHELLA VALLEY STORM POTENTiAL

75% YES+
80% YES+
20% YES+
100% YES+
100% YES-
100% YES-
20% YES+
20% YES+
0% YES+
0% YES+
0% YES+
13.2% YES+
14.3% YES+

342.5% all added up. and 31% Severe Potential
The Cloud Base for today will be around 7,000 feet.(NJK)
The Convective Temperature will be around 90 degrees.
Thunderstorms are possible in and around this area today.
========================================================================================================

Tucson will most likely be the worst storms today.
the further South and east you go, the Tougher storms you'll get.

Kevin Martin