Severe Outbreak for May 31 - June 1 (Watches-Warnings)
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CrazyC83
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- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
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Severe Outbreak for May 31 - June 1 (Watches-Warnings)
Decided to split off watches, warnings and SPC products from the original thread.
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Outbreak for May 31 - June 1 (Watches-Warnings)
Mesoscale Discussion 905 - Ozarks area
Tornado Watch coming. Could be PDS.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0905
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...SERN KS...CNTRL/SWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 311849Z - 312045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HIGHLY FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF CAPE/SHEAR WILL YIELD
SUPERCELLS WITH RISKS OF LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/...TORNADOES
/POSSIBLY STRONG/ AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
DISCUSSION...TCU/SMALL CBS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY AGITATED ALONG A
COUPLE OF SW/NE-ORIENTED CLOUD STREETS ACROSS FAR SERN KS.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA AND
APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SHOULD
FOSTER DEEPENING CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODIFIED 18Z SGF
RAOB SUGGESTS MLCIN HAS BECOME MINIMAL WITH PRESENCE OF A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND AN ASSOCIATED TORNADO RISK. THIS THREAT MAY BE
MAXIMIZED INVOF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING ACROSS PARTS OF
CNTRL MO.
..GRAMS/HART.. 05/31/2013
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38729452 38889303 38549115 38249114 37259230 36619347
36379436 36349485 36549569 36879592 37219597 38029543
38729452
Tornado Watch coming. Could be PDS.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0905
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...SERN KS...CNTRL/SWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 311849Z - 312045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HIGHLY FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF CAPE/SHEAR WILL YIELD
SUPERCELLS WITH RISKS OF LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/...TORNADOES
/POSSIBLY STRONG/ AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
DISCUSSION...TCU/SMALL CBS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY AGITATED ALONG A
COUPLE OF SW/NE-ORIENTED CLOUD STREETS ACROSS FAR SERN KS.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA AND
APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SHOULD
FOSTER DEEPENING CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODIFIED 18Z SGF
RAOB SUGGESTS MLCIN HAS BECOME MINIMAL WITH PRESENCE OF A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT WILL REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND AN ASSOCIATED TORNADO RISK. THIS THREAT MAY BE
MAXIMIZED INVOF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING ACROSS PARTS OF
CNTRL MO.
..GRAMS/HART.. 05/31/2013
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38729452 38889303 38549115 38249114 37259230 36619347
36379436 36349485 36549569 36879592 37219597 38029543
38729452
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Outbreak for May 31 - June 1 (Watches-Warnings)
Mesoscale Discussion 907 - Oklahoma
PDS Tornado Watch coming. Violent tornadoes likely.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0907
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 311940Z - 312115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...PDS TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 21Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM ALONG DRYLINE BETWEEN
21-23Z WITH PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
SEVERE WINDS. TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z WITH AN
EXPECTATION OF A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
FROM GRANT TO CUSTER COUNTIES WITH A DRYLINE DRAPED S/SWWD INTO THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF NWRN TX. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW
BREACHED 100 DEG F ALONG THE RED RIVER IN SWRN OK/NWRN
TX...RESULTING IN MINIMAL MLCIN PER MODIFIED 18Z OUN RAOB. CU JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME MORE AGITATED IN LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW WITH GLANCING
INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION BY 21Z.
STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH AN INITIAL
PRIMARY RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH A PLUME OF 73-74 DEG F SURFACE
DEW POINTS REMAINING ACROSS CNTRL OK BENEATH THE CAPPING INVERSION
NOTED IN 18Z OUN RAOB...AND AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES BY 00Z...TORNADO
THREAT WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. SOME OF THESE WILL LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
..GRAMS/HART.. 05/31/2013
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 35509892 36819772 37049678 36819572 36389547 35649568
34839630 34029749 33909847 34119909 35509892
PDS Tornado Watch coming. Violent tornadoes likely.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0907
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 311940Z - 312115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...PDS TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 21Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM ALONG DRYLINE BETWEEN
21-23Z WITH PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
SEVERE WINDS. TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z WITH AN
EXPECTATION OF A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
FROM GRANT TO CUSTER COUNTIES WITH A DRYLINE DRAPED S/SWWD INTO THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF NWRN TX. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW
BREACHED 100 DEG F ALONG THE RED RIVER IN SWRN OK/NWRN
TX...RESULTING IN MINIMAL MLCIN PER MODIFIED 18Z OUN RAOB. CU JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE HAS BECOME MORE AGITATED IN LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW WITH GLANCING
INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION BY 21Z.
STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH AN INITIAL
PRIMARY RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL. WITH A PLUME OF 73-74 DEG F SURFACE
DEW POINTS REMAINING ACROSS CNTRL OK BENEATH THE CAPPING INVERSION
NOTED IN 18Z OUN RAOB...AND AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES BY 00Z...TORNADO
THREAT WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. SOME OF THESE WILL LIKELY BE
SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
..GRAMS/HART.. 05/31/2013
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 35509892 36819772 37049678 36819572 36389547 35649568
34839630 34029749 33909847 34119909 35509892
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Outbreak for May 31 - June 1 (Watches-Warnings)
Tornado Watch 260 - Ozarks area
Probs are 70/50. Strong tornadoes possible.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 260
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
JEFFERSON CITY MISSOURI TO 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF JOPLIN
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY OVER SOUTHEAST
KS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MO. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE RISK OF A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS.
LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE THREAT OF A
FEW TORNADOES /PERHAPS STRONG/. HIGH CAPE VALUES AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO POSE A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...HART
Probs are 70/50. Strong tornadoes possible.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 260
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
JEFFERSON CITY MISSOURI TO 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF JOPLIN
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY OVER SOUTHEAST
KS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MO. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE RISK OF A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS.
LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE THREAT OF A
FEW TORNADOES /PERHAPS STRONG/. HIGH CAPE VALUES AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO POSE A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
...HART
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Outbreak for May 31 - June 1 (Watches-Warnings)
2000 UTC Convective Outlook
No upgrade to High Risk. Notice the 60% hail contour.
SPC AC 312002
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
VALID 312000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL OK INTO SWRN MO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR NRN TX INTO NERN MN
AND WI...
...OK...SERN KS INTO SWRN MO...
STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER SERN KS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AS
WELL AS ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO W CNTRL MO. 18Z SGF SOUNDING
SHOWED A LOADED GUN PROFILE WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A
VERY DEEP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND A SUPERCELL TORNADO HODOGRAPH.
WITH LIFTED INDICIES OF -10 TO -12...A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL.
FARTHER S INTO OK...THE 18Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWED A PRONOUNCED CAPPING
INVERSION...WITH A VERY MOIST AND DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.50 INCHES. OK MESONET OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 70S F WITH EXTREME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
HIGHER BASED CU HAVE RECENTLY FORMED OVER NW TX AND SWRN OK WHERE
TEMPERATURES WERE NEARING 100 F...AND THE GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS
ARE CENTERED IN THIS REGION AS WELL. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW
CYCLOGENESIS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH WINDS OVER CNTRL OK BECOMING
MORE BACKED WITH TIME. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF ENLARGING
HODOGRAPHS AND SRH VALUES. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY PULL THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...NOW FROM N CNTRL INTO WRN OK...SWD TO NEAR I-40. CELLS
THAT FORM OVER SWRN OR W CNTRL OK WILL MOVE E WITH A VERY HIGH
THREAT OF GIANT HAIL AND A FEW STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. ONE
CAVEAT IS INITIAL LCL HEIGHTS IN THE HOTTER AIR...AND POTENTIAL
OUTFLOW MAGNITUDE. HOWEVER...THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE SUPERCELL
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP STORMS MAINLY CELLULAR...HELPING TO
COUNTERACT ANY NEGATIVE OUTFLOW EFFECTS.
LATER IN THE EVENING...A SEVERE MCS AND/OR ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS ARE
STILL LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AND NERN OK INTO SWRN MO...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
...ERN MN...WI...ERN IA...
EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK FARTHER W INTO MN AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
FORM W OF THE MS RIVER WHERE DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES AND WITH
COOLING ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR SEVERE HAIL. STORMS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH A SWD EXTENSION LIKELY INTO IA BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
..JEWELL.. 05/31/2013
No upgrade to High Risk. Notice the 60% hail contour.
SPC AC 312002
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
VALID 312000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL OK INTO SWRN MO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR NRN TX INTO NERN MN
AND WI...
...OK...SERN KS INTO SWRN MO...
STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER SERN KS ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AS
WELL AS ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO W CNTRL MO. 18Z SGF SOUNDING
SHOWED A LOADED GUN PROFILE WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A
VERY DEEP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND A SUPERCELL TORNADO HODOGRAPH.
WITH LIFTED INDICIES OF -10 TO -12...A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL.
FARTHER S INTO OK...THE 18Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWED A PRONOUNCED CAPPING
INVERSION...WITH A VERY MOIST AND DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.50 INCHES. OK MESONET OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 70S F WITH EXTREME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
HIGHER BASED CU HAVE RECENTLY FORMED OVER NW TX AND SWRN OK WHERE
TEMPERATURES WERE NEARING 100 F...AND THE GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS
ARE CENTERED IN THIS REGION AS WELL. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW
CYCLOGENESIS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH WINDS OVER CNTRL OK BECOMING
MORE BACKED WITH TIME. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF ENLARGING
HODOGRAPHS AND SRH VALUES. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY PULL THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY...NOW FROM N CNTRL INTO WRN OK...SWD TO NEAR I-40. CELLS
THAT FORM OVER SWRN OR W CNTRL OK WILL MOVE E WITH A VERY HIGH
THREAT OF GIANT HAIL AND A FEW STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. ONE
CAVEAT IS INITIAL LCL HEIGHTS IN THE HOTTER AIR...AND POTENTIAL
OUTFLOW MAGNITUDE. HOWEVER...THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE SUPERCELL
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP STORMS MAINLY CELLULAR...HELPING TO
COUNTERACT ANY NEGATIVE OUTFLOW EFFECTS.
LATER IN THE EVENING...A SEVERE MCS AND/OR ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS ARE
STILL LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AND NERN OK INTO SWRN MO...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
...ERN MN...WI...ERN IA...
EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK FARTHER W INTO MN AS STORMS CONTINUE TO
FORM W OF THE MS RIVER WHERE DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES AND WITH
COOLING ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR SEVERE HAIL. STORMS
SHOULD PERSIST WITH A SWD EXTENSION LIKELY INTO IA BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
..JEWELL.. 05/31/2013
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Outbreak for May 31 - June 1 (Watches-Warnings)
PDS Tornado Watch 262 - Most of Oklahoma
Probs are 90/70. Major tornado outbreak expected with violent tornadoes likely, along with MAMMOTH hail of 4 inches or greater (the SPC wording maxes out at 4 inches)
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 330 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
NUMEROUS VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT
GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES EAST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 260...WW 261...
DISCUSSION...AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WEST-CENTRAL OK...AND ALONG A WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST OK. DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT
THROUGH THE EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...HART
Probs are 90/70. Major tornado outbreak expected with violent tornadoes likely, along with MAMMOTH hail of 4 inches or greater (the SPC wording maxes out at 4 inches)
SEL2
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM 330 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
NUMEROUS VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT
GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES EAST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 260...WW 261...
DISCUSSION...AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WEST-CENTRAL OK...AND ALONG A WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST OK. DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT
THROUGH THE EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...HART
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TwisterFanatic
- Category 5
- Posts: 1041
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:43 pm
- Location: Sallisaw, Oklahoma
"Giant Hail"
Don't see them say that often.
Don't see them say that often.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
TwisterFanatic
- Category 5
- Posts: 1041
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:43 pm
- Location: Sallisaw, Oklahoma
801
WUUS54 KOUN 312146
SVROUN
OKC011-015-017-039-073-312230-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0456.130531T2146Z-130531T2230Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
446 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN CUSTER COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 530 PM CDT
* AT 444 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR GREENFIELD. ANOTHER SEVERE STORM
WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF WEATHERFORD. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEATHERFORD...WATONGA...HINTON...GEARY...OKARCHE...HYDRO...
CALUMET...GREENFIELD...BRIDGEPORT...LOYAL AND OMEGA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
WUUS54 KOUN 312146
SVROUN
OKC011-015-017-039-073-312230-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0456.130531T2146Z-130531T2230Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
446 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BLAINE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN CUSTER COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 530 PM CDT
* AT 444 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR GREENFIELD. ANOTHER SEVERE STORM
WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF WEATHERFORD. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEATHERFORD...WATONGA...HINTON...GEARY...OKARCHE...HYDRO...
CALUMET...GREENFIELD...BRIDGEPORT...LOYAL AND OMEGA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Outbreak for May 31 - June 1 (Watches-Warnings)
Mesoscale Discussion 908 - Oklahoma
And we're off...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0908
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL THROUGH CNTRL AND NERN OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 262...
VALID 312158Z - 312330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 262 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STORMS WILL UNDERGO A RAPID INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND
INTENSITY OVER WCNTRL AND SWRN OK. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MATURE
INTO SUPERCELLS AND BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG TORNADOES AS THEY MOVE EWD AND ENEWD TOWARD CNTRL OK THIS
EVENING.
DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN KS
SWWD THROUGH NWRN OK THEN WWD INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE
EXTENDS FROM WRN TX NWD INTO WRN OK WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE DRYLINE.
TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CUMULUS CONGESTUS INCREASING WITHIN
THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED REGIME NEAR THE DRYLINE ACROSS SWRN OK AND THE
FIRST STORMS ARE INITIATING ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION
NEAR WATONGA. THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH 4000+
J/KG MLCAPE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS AROUND 50 KT. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY LARGE...BUT WINDS NEAR THE SFC ARE BACKED TO SSELY
ACROSS CNTRL-WCNTRL OK...AND HODOGRAPHS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
SIZE AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT EXPLOSIVE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS RAPIDLY ORGANIZING INTO
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES
AS THEY MOVE ENEWD THROUGH THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
NEXT FEW HOURS.
..DIAL.. 05/31/2013
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 34209866 35269857 36109796 36999650 36899524 35979525
34009655 34209866
And we're off...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0908
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL THROUGH CNTRL AND NERN OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 262...
VALID 312158Z - 312330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 262 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STORMS WILL UNDERGO A RAPID INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND
INTENSITY OVER WCNTRL AND SWRN OK. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MATURE
INTO SUPERCELLS AND BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG TORNADOES AS THEY MOVE EWD AND ENEWD TOWARD CNTRL OK THIS
EVENING.
DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN KS
SWWD THROUGH NWRN OK THEN WWD INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE
EXTENDS FROM WRN TX NWD INTO WRN OK WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE DRYLINE.
TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CUMULUS CONGESTUS INCREASING WITHIN
THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED REGIME NEAR THE DRYLINE ACROSS SWRN OK AND THE
FIRST STORMS ARE INITIATING ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION
NEAR WATONGA. THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH 4000+
J/KG MLCAPE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS AROUND 50 KT. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY LARGE...BUT WINDS NEAR THE SFC ARE BACKED TO SSELY
ACROSS CNTRL-WCNTRL OK...AND HODOGRAPHS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
SIZE AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT EXPLOSIVE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS RAPIDLY ORGANIZING INTO
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES
AS THEY MOVE ENEWD THROUGH THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
NEXT FEW HOURS.
..DIAL.. 05/31/2013
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 34209866 35269857 36109796 36999650 36899524 35979525
34009655 34209866
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-
TwisterFanatic
- Category 5
- Posts: 1041
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:43 pm
- Location: Sallisaw, Oklahoma
WFUS54 KOUN 312236
TOROUN
OKC017-312315-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0057.130531T2236Z-130531T2315Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
536 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 615 PM CDT
* AT 533 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF HINTON...AND MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.
IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL
SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EL RENO.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TOROUN
OKC017-312315-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0057.130531T2236Z-130531T2315Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
536 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 615 PM CDT
* AT 533 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF HINTON...AND MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.
IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL
SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EL RENO.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Outbreak for May 31 - June 1 (Watches-Warnings)
Tornado Watch 263 - St. Louis area
Probs are 40/20.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 263
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 545 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
VICHY MISSOURI TO 25 MILES EAST OF ALTON ILLINOIS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 260...WW 261...WW 262...
DISCUSSION...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE ST. LOUIS
METROPOLITAN AREA DURING THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME...ACCOMPANIED BY THE
RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS...HAIL AND THE RISK FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES. IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ONE OR TWO
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS COULD ALSO FORM IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY
EVOLVING STORM CLUSTER.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...KERR
Probs are 40/20.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 263
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 545 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
VICHY MISSOURI TO 25 MILES EAST OF ALTON ILLINOIS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 260...WW 261...WW 262...
DISCUSSION...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE ST. LOUIS
METROPOLITAN AREA DURING THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME...ACCOMPANIED BY THE
RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS...HAIL AND THE RISK FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES. IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ONE OR TWO
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS COULD ALSO FORM IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY
EVOLVING STORM CLUSTER.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...KERR
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Outbreak for May 31 - June 1 (Watches-Warnings)
WFUS54 KOUN 312328
TOROUN
OKC017-109-010000-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0060.130531T2328Z-130601T0000Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 700 PM CDT
* AT 623 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO 6
MILES SOUTHEAST OF EL RENO. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR YUKON...RICHLAND...WILEY POST
AIRPORT...BETHANY...AND THE VILLAGE...TAKE IMMEDIATE TORNADO
PRECAUTIONS NOW.
IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...DANGEROUS AND EXTREMELY LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EL RENO...YUKON...BETHANY...MUSTANG...WARR ACRES AND RICHLAND.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. IF YOU
CANNOT GET UNDERGROUND GO TO A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A
STURDY BUILDING NOW.
TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS.
DO NOT STOP UNDER BRIDGES OR HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. THEY WILL NOT
PROTECT YOU FROM A TORNADO.
&&
LAT...LON 3541 9751 3537 9792 3553 9796 3565 9760
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 254DEG 33KT 3548 9786
$$
AUSTIN
TOROUN
OKC017-109-010000-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0060.130531T2328Z-130601T0000Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 700 PM CDT
* AT 623 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO 6
MILES SOUTHEAST OF EL RENO. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR YUKON...RICHLAND...WILEY POST
AIRPORT...BETHANY...AND THE VILLAGE...TAKE IMMEDIATE TORNADO
PRECAUTIONS NOW.
IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...DANGEROUS AND EXTREMELY LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EL RENO...YUKON...BETHANY...MUSTANG...WARR ACRES AND RICHLAND.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. IF YOU
CANNOT GET UNDERGROUND GO TO A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A
STURDY BUILDING NOW.
TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS.
DO NOT STOP UNDER BRIDGES OR HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. THEY WILL NOT
PROTECT YOU FROM A TORNADO.
&&
LAT...LON 3541 9751 3537 9792 3553 9796 3565 9760
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 254DEG 33KT 3548 9786
$$
AUSTIN
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