Another Severe Week Brewing?

[WeatherGuesser]

SPC already has Slight Risk areas posted for OK, KS and surrounding areas for Tuesday and Wednesday.

[WeatherGuesser]

Not much of a threat, but OK doesn't really need anything right now.




SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 273
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WESTERN OKLAHOMA INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
DODGE CITY KANSAS TO 25 MILES WEST OF ALTUS OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM SERN CO INTO SWRN
KS AHEAD OF A WEAK VORTICITY MAX WITHIN A DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND HAIL WITH INITIAL STORMS. NWP
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING CONVECTION-ALLOWING ENSEMBLES SHOW STRONG
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THAT STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
GENERATE A MESOSCALE COLD POOL AND GROW UPSCALE INTO SEWD MOVING
MCS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29025.


...WEISS

[Ntxw]

Definitely nothing like last week, more typical summer like showers with scattered to isolated severe weather. Oklahoma doesn't need the flooding but lets remember this part of the country has been in severe drought for years so this somewhat needed. All droughts end in flood unfortunately, and it looks like they will add on more rain.

[Cyclenall]

What has amazed me is central OK has been in the moderate and slight risk areas like non-stop since May 14...its becoming unusual now. OK truly has the worst severe weather on earth (thunderstorms).

[WeatherGuesser]

Yeah, but that week kind of fizzled out. More just typical spring weather.

Funny thing is, 'Slight Risk' seems to mean different things in different areas. It can mean some pretty nasty stuff for the Ohio valley, but that's an area that doesn't see the scale of severe that the plains do.