First fall rain possible in so. CA? input wanted please

[weatherlover427]

Good morning everone,

According to some of the latest model runs, there may be a nice storm setting up for next weekend here in my area. Here are the details.

- -

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/6d/mrf_500_6d.gif

This map shows the evolution of the system. At this stage, it is just beginning to come down from the northeast. Yes, NORTHEAST. It is going to be a cutoff low.

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/7d/mrf_500_7d.gif

At this stage, the storm appears to be rapidly winding up. In only 24 hours, it has gained lots of intensity and the leftmost dark area is over me

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/8d/mrf_500_8d.gif

Here, the storm is offshore and does not look as intense on the model map.

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/9d/mrf_500_9d.gif

Here, the storm is moving north, along the coast, and is near Monterey Bay.

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/10d/mrf_500_10d.gif

Here it has taken a dive southeast and has moved over the SE California deserts in a much weakened state.

(so I hope)

What are everyone's thoughts on this? Input wanted!

[weatherlover427]

Update: The local forecast has added breezy offshore winds for Friday through Sunday. Maybe our first Santa Ana of the season now? :?

[Guest]

Yea Josh the models for some odd reason tried developing a cutoff low in the SW which most agreed that it wasnt happening....................Its a good sign i think to start seeing this but i think it will be a bit longer before the storms start rolling into S.CA.............Atleast now so far they have begun to make it into the Northwest....................Either way i think you should your share of rain the winter especially with a little help from a weak El'Nino thats expected to develop..............

[weatherlover427]

The local NWS forecasts are beginning to pick up on this too :? . They have added breezy conditions for Friday-Sunday and in the AFD's, they say this could be our first Santa Ana of the year.

[btangy]

Been waiting for our first Santa Ana of the season. Usually we would already have had a few decent ones at this point.

Been looking at the GFS the past couple days and it's been persistent in that it wants cut off a rather vigorous upper level low over Nevada and move it SW. However, the UKMET and ECMWF and it has no such feature (at least the 00Z from last night didn't). So, I'm holding off just awhile till better consensus is reached between the global models. If the GFS verifies, with building pressures over the great basin, cold air advection, and upper level support, could mean a strong Santa Ana.

As an aside, I was outside before 8am this morning, and there was a very strong radiation inversion. Was walking up a flight of stairs (about 40ft. rise), and the temperature difference between the air at bottom and top of the stairs must have at least a few degrees. Never felt anything like that. Looked at the NKX and VBG soundings this morning and the temperature profile is nearly flat (on the skew-T!) at 1000mb. 10-15C inversion... that's pretty darn strong. Reached 90 degrees on campus today.

[Guest]

Well as of late the GGEM and as well the Ukmet are now showing this cut off low in the SW...............Have to see how this trend continues before making any assumptions...............Right now thats a trend towards the GFS which as well pulls in a huge trough in the NW and the northern Rockies bringing with it alot colder air and a good chance of snow especially in the higher elevations of the Rockies and the NW...................Lets hope for you guys this trend continues so maybe you all can get some much needed rain and snow in the higher areas......................

[weatherlover427]

It also hit 90 here where I live - well 89.4° :o - close enough if you ask me. Now the local forecasts have changed to "windy below passes and canyons".

[btangy]

New GFS doesn't show the cutoff low anymore and is more progressive with the trough. Solution looks more realistic in my opinion. Still will get breezy Friday and Saturday, but probably not a major event like the GFS was suggesting. Going to be another hot one tomorrow as LAX-DAG gradient is already below -2. Could go as low as -3 as the ETA suggests in the morning signifying decent offshore flow. NWS Oxnard going for a high of 97 tomorrow downtown. Yikes!

[Guest]

New GFS doesn't show the cutoff low anymore and is more progressive with the trough. Solution looks more realistic in my opinion. Still will get breezy Friday and Saturday, but probably not a major event like the GFS was suggesting. Going to be another hot one tomorrow as LAX-DAG gradient is already below -2. Could go as low as -3 as the ETA suggests in the morning signifying decent offshore flow. NWS Oxnard going for a high of 97 tomorrow downtown. Yikes!

LOL.......You just beat me to it btangy .............Yep the GFS and the other models as well back off the sw system......................BTW thats some heat you guy are having which may stick around for a bit anyways.................

[weatherlover427]

I sure love pessimism ... at 11 LA Downtowm was already at 92 :o .

[btangy]

Look at this inversion at Vandenberg AFB. 20 degrees C! That's just incredible.

Got up to 93 on campus today , and it was stifling. No sea breeze whatsoever. That marine layer is just hanging off the coast skirting the channel islands and San Clemente island further south. Hopefully the offshore gradients relax a little tomorrow so the much cooler marine air can work its way closer to the coast and give us some relief tomorrow, at least in the afternoon.

Renewed offshore flow is going to make it toasty again this weekend, and if the winds kick up, can add allergies to the annoyances.

[weatherlover427]

It was crazy hot again today too :o . 89.5 today at my apartment, which if you round up makes it our first 90 of the year if I recall correctly. :o The four brush fires that are active at the moment don't help any either. :o