Severe Weather for the SE Monday/Tuesday?

[bkhusky2]

The GFS is really starting to get interesting, especially on the latest 18z run. I haven't got to test my anemometer yet, but this looks to be a good time.

Looks like the threat for tornadoes will be there, with a strong LLJ and nice upper level dynamics. Only thing the GFS lacks is thermodynamics, which I think it is underestimating. Here's a map of 500mb for 144 hours.



It looks to me that the severe weather threat is increasing, local mets around here agree.

[GAStorm]

I think the SE is overdue for some rough weather! Should be interesting to see what happens.

[stormy]

thanks for the heads up bk. let us know

[Colin]

Stay safe!!!!

[bkhusky2]

Stay safe!!!!

Of course with the typical GFS runs are jumping all over the place, and now it looks a little different. It now is in agreement with the Canadain, which takes a strong low across Michigan, with a trailing cold front, and a nice negative tilt through here. Still a good ways away and a lot of things could change, but this may be the 1st threat we've had this season.

[stormy]

and the excitement begins. hope it happens, been boring around here in alabama.

[bkhusky2]

New ECMWF is coming out, out to day 5 (tuesday) right now, looks severe. Looks like a nice neg tilt with a LP center going across Illinios/Indiana.

ECMWF Day 5 SLP

ECMWF 500 Heights Day 5

[breeze]

I KNEW there was a reason not to pitch out
my twister avatar for the holidays, just yet!

Thanks, bk!

[StormCrazyIowan]

LOL Annette!

If you lived where I live you wouldn't have had reason for it in the first place!

[breeze]

LOL, gotta be a FEW more severe systems before
the icicles are hanging off the roof!

[StormCrazyIowan]