Texas Fall 2022

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Portastorm
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#221 Postby Portastorm » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:42 am

Edwards Limestone wrote:Got down to 59 this morning in Hollywood Park. Felt amazing.


We had mostly 50s for lows in Travis County outside the central urban core of Austin. Wonderful! :D
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#222 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:48 am

Edwards Limestone wrote:Got down to 59 this morning in Hollywood Park. Felt amazing.


Sure did! The only thing that would feel better is rain :D
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#223 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Sep 27, 2022 1:00 pm

90s still showing up in the extended forecast, well into October. This is getting unbearably old.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#224 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Sep 27, 2022 2:39 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
Edwards Limestone wrote:Got down to 59 this morning in Hollywood Park. Felt amazing.


Sure did! The only thing that would feel better is rain :D


Exactly!! We’ll probably see some rain chances over the next few months on occasion but probably nothing widespread till spring.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#225 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Sep 27, 2022 4:10 pm

Mine bottomed out at 61, and I'm a lower spot. Sensor is also underneath an eave of the roof, which may prevented it from reading 50s. Definitely felt more coolish! :)
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#226 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 28, 2022 12:45 am

Had 40s outside the city this morning :cold:

Of course we can't seem to get rid of highs near 90 either due to the super dry air
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#227 Postby Ntxw » Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:09 pm

Ian reminds us why we don't want rain in that form. Still we do need rain.

Beautiful weather stretch for most of us (in the sense temps are comfortable-warm) with generally low dewpoints. There are at least subtle signs from ensembles in the very long range of heights rising over the Pacific Northwest and Canada that may allow us to cool off.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#228 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:06 pm

Ntxw wrote:Ian reminds us why we don't want rain in that form. Still we do need rain.

Beautiful weather stretch for most of us (in the sense temps are comfortable-warm) with generally low dewpoints. There are at least subtle signs from ensembles in the very long range of heights rising over the Pacific Northwest and Canada that may allow us to cool off.


I’ve never really experienced hurricane conditions and I only live one hour from the Gulf. Hurricane Claudette in 2003 was the closest call I’ve ever had and that wasn’t too bad here. Harvey was just all rain here with not much wind (maybe 40-50mph tops). I know eventually my luck is bound to run out though.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#229 Postby IcyTundra » Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:30 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Ian reminds us why we don't want rain in that form. Still we do need rain.

Beautiful weather stretch for most of us (in the sense temps are comfortable-warm) with generally low dewpoints. There are at least subtle signs from ensembles in the very long range of heights rising over the Pacific Northwest and Canada that may allow us to cool off.


I’ve never really experienced hurricane conditions and I only live one hour from the Gulf. Hurricane Claudette in 2003 was the closest call I’ve ever had and that wasn’t too bad here. Harvey was just all rain here with not much wind (maybe 40-50mph tops). I know eventually my luck is bound to run out though.


You're right the Middle to Upper TX coast is woefully unprepared for a storm like Ian, Ida, or Laura. Harvey was pretty bad for Rockport but it's windfield was quite small and it was an area with relatively low population. We haven't had a true wind storm since Carla imo. Ike was a glancing blow that would have been a lot worse if it made landfall between Freeport and the west end of Galveston like it was supposed to.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#230 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:29 pm

IcyTundra wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Ian reminds us why we don't want rain in that form. Still we do need rain.

Beautiful weather stretch for most of us (in the sense temps are comfortable-warm) with generally low dewpoints. There are at least subtle signs from ensembles in the very long range of heights rising over the Pacific Northwest and Canada that may allow us to cool off.


I’ve never really experienced hurricane conditions and I only live one hour from the Gulf. Hurricane Claudette in 2003 was the closest call I’ve ever had and that wasn’t too bad here. Harvey was just all rain here with not much wind (maybe 40-50mph tops). I know eventually my luck is bound to run out though.


You're right the Middle to Upper TX coast is woefully unprepared for a storm like Ian, Ida, or Laura. Harvey was pretty bad for Rockport but it's windfield was quite small and it was an area with relatively low population. We haven't had a true wind storm since Carla imo. Ike was a glancing blow that would have been a lot worse if it made landfall between Freeport and the west end of Galveston like it was supposed to.


Yep, I agree. It’s just hard for a storm to get this far west without some trough picking it up.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#231 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:48 pm

I saw a couple far weakened hurricanes 3-4 hours inland in Alabama when I was younger and that was enough for me(several others had squalls or spinup tornadoes like Katrina). Nothing fun about them believe me. The night Opal came through moving at 35 mph is still one of the worst weather events I've ever seen and that was 27 years ago. I can still remember walking over powerlines when the sun came up. Don't care to ever see that again
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#232 Postby IcyTundra » Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:33 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
IcyTundra wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
I’ve never really experienced hurricane conditions and I only live one hour from the Gulf. Hurricane Claudette in 2003 was the closest call I’ve ever had and that wasn’t too bad here. Harvey was just all rain here with not much wind (maybe 40-50mph tops). I know eventually my luck is bound to run out though.


You're right the Middle to Upper TX coast is woefully unprepared for a storm like Ian, Ida, or Laura. Harvey was pretty bad for Rockport but it's windfield was quite small and it was an area with relatively low population. We haven't had a true wind storm since Carla imo. Ike was a glancing blow that would have been a lot worse if it made landfall between Freeport and the west end of Galveston like it was supposed to.


Yep, I agree. It’s just hard for a storm to get this far west without some trough picking it up.


It has to be a homegrown system like Harvey, Carla, or Alicia. It is possible for long trackers to get this far but those are few and far between. The long trackers need to stay weak for a longtime like the 1900 Galveston Hurricane or have an abnormally strong ridge which was the case for Ike.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#233 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:33 pm

Tropical depression 16E may recurve and strike Mexico, but the models seem unimpressed by our chances of getting any rain out of the deal.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#234 Postby cstrunk » Thu Sep 29, 2022 7:49 am

This stretch of dry conditions may even be worse than the summer. At least in the summer there is usually at least some hope for a random pop-up storm/shower. Zero, nada, zilch in the forecast for a huge area for the next 7+ days.

But yes, at least I am enjoying the temperatures, finally.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#235 Postby Ntxw » Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:07 am

cstrunk wrote:This stretch of dry conditions may even be worse than the summer. At least in the summer there is usually at least some hope for a random pop-up storm/shower. Zero, nada, zilch in the forecast for a huge area for the next 7+ days.

But yes, at least I am enjoying the temperatures, finally.


It is worse than summer in certain ways because we are in climo wet months. You kind of expect it in summer if it happens. But really it is never good any month. Wet seasons is when lakes and rivers replenish.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#236 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Sep 29, 2022 8:27 am

Ntxw wrote:
cstrunk wrote:This stretch of dry conditions may even be worse than the summer. At least in the summer there is usually at least some hope for a random pop-up storm/shower. Zero, nada, zilch in the forecast for a huge area for the next 7+ days.

But yes, at least I am enjoying the temperatures, finally.


It is worse than summer in certain ways because we are in climo wet months. You kind of expect it in summer if it happens. But really it is never good any month. Wet seasons is when lakes and rivers replenish.


And sometimes, the weather will throw a curveball too. :)
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#237 Postby Portastorm » Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:39 am

Ntxw wrote:
cstrunk wrote:This stretch of dry conditions may even be worse than the summer. At least in the summer there is usually at least some hope for a random pop-up storm/shower. Zero, nada, zilch in the forecast for a huge area for the next 7+ days.

But yes, at least I am enjoying the temperatures, finally.


It is worse than summer in certain ways because we are in climo wet months. You kind of expect it in summer if it happens. But really it is never good any month. Wet seasons is when lakes and rivers replenish.


In his fall forecast webinar, NWS Austin/San Antonio meteorologist Keith White talked about a growing concern later this fall for fire weather. With Nina in control, warm and dry likely rules the day(s). As Ntxw pointed out ... having that kind of weather during our secondary "wet" season is troubling.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#238 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:46 am

That Drought Monitor is terrible! The Cockroach Death Ridge is refusing to give in! :grr:
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#239 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Sep 30, 2022 2:56 am

Recent mornings have been in upper 40s in NE TX with 50s in town. Tonight looks a touch chillier with some spots likely reaching the mid 40s. Already in upper 40s in rural areas.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#240 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:58 pm

The beginning of October does not look promising at all, even though my Local TV met said that a pattern change may happen next weekend.
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