Texas Spring 2024

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Edwards Limestone
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#641 Postby Edwards Limestone » Sat Apr 20, 2024 3:12 pm

Per usual, congrats to our DFW/NTX guys. Houston and East TX will get even more tonight. Glad someone is getting it.

I’m done trusting any 3-5 day forecasts down here- I think the global models really struggle with lack of sufficient upper air data in the eastern Mexican highlands, something that must play a large role in our rainfall totals and weather.

We’ve got some nice drizzle on tap though.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#642 Postby WacoWx » Sat Apr 20, 2024 4:00 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
WacoWx wrote:We have an outdoor party to attend at 4:00

Ummmm I have some news for you...... :D

Oh no, it’s happening. Let’s hope my golf gear is actually waterproof.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#643 Postby bubba hotep » Sat Apr 20, 2024 4:31 pm

Love Field is making a run at 4" and has also broken the daily record.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#644 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Apr 20, 2024 4:52 pm

Massive disappointment in the rain department today with almost all of it being south of here :(

Image
Parts of OK are now starting to enter a drought, which is not great considering we're about to move into summer pretty soon. I'm also noticing the increasing drought over the EML source region which makes me wonder if some of these potential severe weather setups in about a week or so could end up having capping issues. Not super impressed with 4/25 right now (Day 6 15%) but 4/26-29 could be a little more interesting IMO. Something to watch but I'm not concerned yet
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#645 Postby mmmmsnouts » Sat Apr 20, 2024 5:08 pm

Power still out because Oncor can't come out and restore it with new storms popping up right after the last one moves through. :grr:
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#646 Postby Anti-freeze » Sat Apr 20, 2024 5:23 pm

Gotwood wrote:
WacoWx wrote:DFW looks to be setting up for some flash flooding according to radar trends.

One of the more relaxing days I can remember love a cool rainy day.


I love a rainy night
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#647 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Apr 20, 2024 6:09 pm

Edwards Limestone wrote:Per usual, congrats to our DFW/NTX guys. Houston and East TX will get even more tonight. Glad someone is getting it.

I’m done trusting any 3-5 day forecasts down here- I think the global models really struggle with lack of sufficient upper air data in the eastern Mexican highlands, something that must play a large role in our rainfall totals and weather.


We’ve got some nice drizzle on tap though.


Very disappointing to see this pattern repeat itself once again. North TX seems to be cashing in more than normal lately leaving south/central TX high and dry. Wish we could win the rain lottery every once in a while...
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#648 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Apr 20, 2024 6:20 pm

Edwards Limestone wrote:Per usual, congrats to our DFW/NTX guys. Houston and East TX will get even more tonight. Glad someone is getting it.

I’m done trusting any 3-5 day forecasts down here- I think the global models really struggle with lack of sufficient upper air data in the eastern Mexican highlands, something that must play a large role in our rainfall totals and weather.

We’ve got some nice drizzle on tap though.


I 've always thought and mentioned on this forum before that one of the toughest regions to forecast accurately is down across South Central Texas for the reasons you stated among others.
 
Having said that however, I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure DFW missed out a week ago on the rain for the most part which was much advertised via the global models then (i.e. DFW under flash flood watch and yet got very little). While useful tools of course, we know that using globals to predict accuracy for one's own backyard can be extremely risky.

Short range models have always been my preference because they handle the atmospheric dynamics better for these individual setups which often can make or break who gets what, how much and where. In terms of the severe weather season, tracking outflow boundaries, frontal progress/drylines positions etc can vary in real-time and so globals often play catch up once you're within that 24 hour to day of/real-time window.

In terms of the weather down here, our timeframe for a higher probability of rain today was always greatest early evening and so let's see what happens. Radar starting to pop a bit out west. Fingers crossed you cash in on something. I get the frustration. We need to cash in some more before getting into a summer/La Nina pattern. Pattern going into May still looks promising as well so that's encouraging.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#649 Postby rwfromkansas » Sat Apr 20, 2024 6:33 pm

DFW got screwed last week as well and several other events, but I will say yes, S TX has been getting the worst of the busts.

Hopefully you can cash in before mid-May and the spigot shuts off.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#650 Postby Brent » Sat Apr 20, 2024 8:11 pm

Didn't rain a drop here either again. In fact most of today was actually a nice day after all the talk of a dreary wet weekend :spam: I really hope May does something here because this is ridiculous after how terrible the winter was especially but at least it was actually raining then...
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#651 Postby TX4Cats » Sat Apr 20, 2024 8:18 pm

Had a wake low move through early this evening. Pressure dropped 0.15 in/Hg in 20 minutes.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#652 Postby snownado » Sat Apr 20, 2024 8:59 pm

DFW's definitely been getting screwed with the lack of severe weather (much more so than other locations in every which direction), but has been doing quite well on the precipitation front having seen almost double its average rainfall since March 1st.
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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#653 Postby Ntxw » Sat Apr 20, 2024 9:16 pm

snownado wrote:DFW's definitely been getting screwed with the lack of severe weather (much more so than other locations in every which direction), but has been doing quite well on the precipitation front having seen almost double its average rainfall since March 1st.


So relieved, 2010s were brutal for the core DFW counties with many costly hail and tornado events.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#654 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat Apr 20, 2024 9:20 pm

Ntxw wrote:
snownado wrote:DFW's definitely been getting screwed with the lack of severe weather (much more so than other locations in every which direction), but has been doing quite well on the precipitation front having seen almost double its average rainfall since March 1st.


So relieved, 2010s were brutal for the core DFW counties with many costly hail and tornado events.


Yeah, I would not say we're getting screwed. I think we're just getting a pass which i'm fine with.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#655 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Apr 20, 2024 9:24 pm

Good soakers just west of San Antonio moving east currently producing some rainfall rates of 4 inches per hour. Patience is rewarded.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#656 Postby mmmmsnouts » Sat Apr 20, 2024 10:15 pm

Up to 13 hours in the dark now. Oncor trying to say the problem is "vegetation" which seems like code for "incompetence." The rest of the neighborhood went down a few hours ago (well after the last rumble of thunder was heard) and there is still no ETA.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#657 Postby txtwister78 » Sat Apr 20, 2024 11:26 pm

Bonus rain now moving through as a second round of storms has developed over West/NW areas of San Antonio. Nice!
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#658 Postby txtwister78 » Sun Apr 21, 2024 12:52 am

Big hail reports on the north side of San Antonio/Bexar County.
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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#659 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Apr 21, 2024 10:20 am

Yesterday's event put DFW +4" for the year, and the 00z EPS says more rain is on the way.

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#660 Postby Ntxw » Sun Apr 21, 2024 10:39 am

bubba hotep wrote:Yesterday's event put DFW +4" for the year, and the 00z EPS says more rain is on the way.

https://m3o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/epsens/2024042100/360/qpf_acc-mean-imp.us_sc.png


The water year (starts in October) has been very good for NTX. Fall->Winter->Spring has been very generous for us and thus far has followed well with El Nino above normal precip.
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