Texas Spring 2024

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HockeyTx82
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1461 Postby HockeyTx82 » Fri May 24, 2024 6:33 pm

So are we done if we got rain or is this thing gonna keep firing off storms until late tonight. I have an event in Denton I need to go to an about an hour.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1462 Postby Cpv17 » Fri May 24, 2024 6:58 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:So are we done if we got rain or is this thing gonna keep firing off storms until late tonight. I have an event in Denton I need to go to an about an hour.


Earlier I mentioned storms could keep firing off till midnight or so.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1463 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri May 24, 2024 7:17 pm

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
715 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR BOWIE COUNTY AND NEW BOSTON TEXAS...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL BOWIE COUNTY...

At 714 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located over New Boston, moving east at 25 mph.

TORNADO EMERGENCY for New Boston. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Deadly tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible.

The tornado will be near... Hooks around 720 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1464 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri May 24, 2024 7:26 pm

Hmm not even a CC drop. Don't think a TOR-E is warranted here (at least yet)
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1465 Postby snownado » Fri May 24, 2024 7:27 pm

On another subject, although DFW wad socked in low clouds much of the day before the convective debris took over (so wasn't all that easy to tell), there's quite a bit of smoke out there from ongoing wildfires in Mexico, making for very hazy conditions.

Supposedly, it's coming from the widespread wildfires ongoing down in Mexico.

EDIT: That may also explain why areas that haven't had anything formidable headed their way but still get the cirrus blowoff have been getting so dark.
Last edited by snownado on Fri May 24, 2024 7:40 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1466 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri May 24, 2024 7:31 pm

Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
724 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a

* Tornado Warning for... East central Bowie County in northeastern Texas...

* Until 800 PM CDT.

* At 724 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Hooks, or near New Boston, moving east at 25 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible.

* The tornado will be near... Hooks around 730 PM CDT. Red Lick around 740 PM CDT. Texarkana and Nash around 745 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Leary and Red Bank.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 279DEG 20KT 3349 9435

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

$$
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1467 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri May 24, 2024 8:37 pm

Holy HRRR...
If the 0z verifies we could be looking at a 5/24/11 type outbreak.

We'll see what the other CAMs have but a High risk upgrade is looking more and more likely as we get closer.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1468 Postby snownado » Fri May 24, 2024 9:08 pm

So other than a few more low-end severe hail reports (1" to 1.25") for the hinterlands of DFW (Forney and Waxahachie), this was yet another decent setup on paper ending up as a non-event for the Metroplex....
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1469 Postby Brent » Fri May 24, 2024 9:21 pm

91 tornadoes in Oklahoma this year already :eek: more than any year this decade and the HRRR looks like a high risk tomorrow :double:
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1470 Postby Anti-freeze » Fri May 24, 2024 9:47 pm

DFW is on the edge of tomorrow's possible tornado outbreak, so I guess we'll get another round of Temple/Greenfield Envy posts....
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1471 Postby snownado » Fri May 24, 2024 9:51 pm

Anti-freeze wrote:DFW is on the edge of tomorrow's possible tornado outbreak, so I guess we'll get another round of Temple/Greenfield Envy posts....


Hopefully, we actually have a Sunny day tomorrow.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1472 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri May 24, 2024 11:56 pm

Looking at all of the 0z data (not just HRRR and RRFS lol) I wouldn't be opposed to leaving it at moderate for one more outlook cycle to see if we get any more consistency in the data. Although I think there's a pretty good chance they go ahead and upgrade at 6z. Regardless of outlook level this is going to be an extremely dangerous day.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1473 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat May 25, 2024 1:06 am

Yep 6z outlook remains moderate, I think that's a solid play for now. Need to see how much moisture/inhibition we end up getting tomorrow
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1474 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat May 25, 2024 9:20 am

ElectricStorm wrote:Yep 6z outlook remains moderate, I think that's a solid play for now. Need to see how much moisture/inhibition we end up getting tomorrow

Yeah was honestly expecting a high risk at 6z but it makes sense why they didn’t. The ceiling is very high but potential failure modes do exist and coverage may not justify a high risk. We’ll see if later runs and outlooks change that though
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1475 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat May 25, 2024 9:37 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
ElectricStorm wrote:Yep 6z outlook remains moderate, I think that's a solid play for now. Need to see how much moisture/inhibition we end up getting tomorrow

Yeah was honestly expecting a high risk at 6z but it makes sense why they didn’t. The ceiling is very high but potential failure modes do exist and coverage may not justify a high risk. We’ll see if later runs and outlooks change that though

Not liking the looks of the 12z CAMs, seems like pretty much all of them have discrete supercells. The HRRR is running at least 2-3 degrees drier than current obs which is not great since its been consistently on the higher end of the guidance since 0z. The NAM looks closer to current Td's and it looks more concerning than the 0z and 6z runs.

Unfortunately I think we're gonna see at least a few strong tornadoes today regardless of risk level. I just hope they miss all the populated areas.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1476 Postby bubba hotep » Sat May 25, 2024 10:27 am

12z CAMS might support dragging the ENH farther east in Texas to I35.

12z HRRR actually paints NTX as the 2nd area to watch today.

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1477 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat May 25, 2024 10:57 am

bubba hotep wrote:12z CAMS might support dragging the ENH farther east in Texas to I35.

12z HRRR actually paints NTX as the 2nd area to watch today.

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2024052512/024/uh25_max.us_sc.png


That's a monster moving right over DFW. Clouds are not breaking and there's a cap I heard. Any chance last night's storms help calm things down?
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1478 Postby HockeyTx82 » Sat May 25, 2024 11:43 am

And the enhanced gets moved more into DFW. Looks to be mainly for hail.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1479 Postby bubba hotep » Sat May 25, 2024 12:28 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:And the enhanced gets moved more into DFW. Looks to be mainly for hail.


Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1480 Postby Stratton23 » Sat May 25, 2024 2:15 pm

Pattern looks to stay active even heading into june across the state
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