Texas Spring 2024

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Brent
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1661 Postby Brent » Tue May 28, 2024 10:39 pm

Bhow wrote:Another rain bust coming for the Austin/San Antonio corridor. Mother Nature realized the cap wouldn’t hold so she decided to throw her second best pitch at us - the dreaded outflow boundary


Radar looking solid down there now
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1662 Postby mmmmsnouts » Wed May 29, 2024 12:16 am

Looks like this next MCS is going to miss south and west of DFW. Tarrant should get some moderate rain.

Either way, nowhere near as potent as this morning. An old co-worker of mine lives in Garland and she posted pictures of huge trees uprooted around her house, and a hole blown out of the brick facade of a church. Not sure if it was a tornado or very strong straight line winds but it looked about as bad as Houston did a couple weeks ago.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1663 Postby bubba hotep » Wed May 29, 2024 9:06 am

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1664 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed May 29, 2024 9:22 am


I was just looking at that run, and I can’t tell if it’s out to lunch or not. 2 mature MCSs moving through NTX within about 12 hours of each other? Somehow the second one looks stronger even though the atmosphere doesn’t look to fully recover before it rolls through
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1665 Postby snownado » Wed May 29, 2024 9:45 am

Today's a big fat bust rain-wise for DFW, which I'm ok with.

BTW, finally got power back yesterday evening after being out 14 hours.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1666 Postby bubba hotep » Wed May 29, 2024 11:46 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:

I was just looking at that run, and I can’t tell if it’s out to lunch or not. 2 mature MCSs moving through NTX within about 12 hours of each other? Somehow the second one looks stronger even though the atmosphere doesn’t look to fully recover before it rolls through


That has a very 2016 feel to it.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1667 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed May 29, 2024 11:48 am

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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1668 Postby Ntxw » Wed May 29, 2024 2:08 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:Interesting…

 https://x.com/reedtimmerusa/status/1795850636572991718




That is indicative of -PDO or persistent La Nina-like atmosphere. Outbreaks of severe weather in terms of high intensity in short bursts is more inclined with La Nina.

The cause of the Aleutian Ridge to warm those waters is La Nina/-PDO climo.

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1669 Postby snownado » Wed May 29, 2024 8:28 pm

There is indication in the model guidance that another squall line could move through DFW tomorrow, this time during peak heating.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1670 Postby jasons2k » Wed May 29, 2024 9:38 pm

Check this out. DVD size hail near Lubbock.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topst ... ngNewsSerp
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1671 Postby Brent » Wed May 29, 2024 11:02 pm

195 tornado warnings for Oklahoma this year already :eek: :double: :eek: just incredible. Not convinced we're done yet either for the spring. It was well into June last year

Also been incredible to watch how quickly DFW made up ground the last few days
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1672 Postby opticsguy » Thu May 30, 2024 5:40 am

Ntxw wrote:If recall June 2019 was down bursts/microburst from collapsing thunderstorm complex. Locally some winds then were higher in some locales. Today's was your more standard MCS with a strong leading storm that may (if confirmed) have dropped a lower end qlcs style spin up tornado anywhere from Denton/Collin County border to NE Dallas county and east/se. Everywhere else 60-80mph winds would do some tree damage.


The June 2019 MB dropped 2 inches of rain in about 10 minutes. The storm drains were overwhelmed cars were floating in the streets in far north Dallas and Richardson. It was labor day when the last of the brush was picked up.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1673 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu May 30, 2024 9:41 am

854
FXUS64 KFWD 300958 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
458 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
No changes. Thank you, NWS for a great career and letting me
realize my dream. Keep doing what you do and protecting life and
property. We make a difference! God Bless.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
/End of The Week/

The unsettled pattern with a round of storms and locally heavy
rainfall primarily for North Texas this afternoon, possibly into
early evening NE counties. A brief reprieve occurs before another
MCS in northwest flow arrives overnight with similar impacts. The
third round you ask? Possibly late Friday morning or afternoon,
though this certainly looks more uncertain than the others. Highs
will be confined in the 70s/80s (which we`ll take this time of
year) with lows in the 60s to lower 70s.

------------------------------------------------------------

Now for the solemn, but also happy part...

With that said, this will be my final forecast discussion after 30
years in the NWS, 25 years of those a lead meteorologist. I will
always love love meteorology, forecasting, and the science. That
will never change! What I won`t miss is the 3 decades of rotating,
weekly shifts, some 6-7 days long. You throw in all the OT for
hazardous weather and it can take it`s toll on just about anyone.

I`ve especially enjoyed the outreach through the years as well
meeting and working along with so many great partners, especially
the EM community both young and old that I was honored to meet
through school talks, SKYWARN, and of course my favorite,
StormReady which I can`t understate the importance of these events.

However, it is time for me to gallop off into the sunset and to
new pastures in life and see where it takes me. I had the honor
of working in at 5 NWS offices(Brownsville TX, Goodland KS,
Spokane WA, Jackson MS, and here in Fort Worth the past 22 years)
and in 3 NWS regions(Southern, Central, and Western). I`ve had
many mentors through the years, some that are no longer with us
and have made so many connections and lifetime friendships with
colleagues throughout (you all know who you are) through those
offices, training workshops in Boulder CO, Kansas City MO, and
Atlanta GA, as well as region offices.

I write this with mixed emotions as I remember the first day in
Brownsville TX May 24th, 1994(happens to be my wife of 29 years
birthday as well). Throw in all the historic winter, tropical,
and tornadic/severe weather events I`ve part of with awesome
colleagues and meteorologists will always remain vivid in my mind
and NEVER fade and last my entire lifetime! I will miss you all,
you can bet on that. I wish you all the best in the future and
hope your memories of me are good ones! Have a great Summer and
rest of 2024 and beyond!

Sincerely,
05/Marty

&&
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1674 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu May 30, 2024 9:54 am

Wow, impressive career. I don’t know why the NWS insists on harming employee health with rotating shifts in 2024.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1675 Postby Anti-freeze » Thu May 30, 2024 10:10 am

though this certainly looks more uncertain


awesome
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1676 Postby Ntxw » Thu May 30, 2024 10:23 am

Will be missed and what a tenured career Marty had, vital services saving lives and money.

There is a center of low pressure in Southern Oklahoma, a couple of MCS/complex of storms will pivot through NTX today around that system.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1677 Postby bubba hotep » Thu May 30, 2024 10:44 am

Ntxw wrote:Will be missed and what a tenured career Marty had, vital services saving lives and money.

There is a center of low pressure in Southern Oklahoma, a couple of MCS/complex of storms will pivot through NTX today around that system.


Complex setup. Looks like the first impulse will mostly leave the atmosphere across DFW intact. The trailing one will have better timing, and southern flow will continue into DFW as it approaches. There are even some storms starting to pop out west of DFW in the southerly flow.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1678 Postby txtwister78 » Thu May 30, 2024 10:54 am

Man, that would be nice.

Image
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1679 Postby bubba hotep » Thu May 30, 2024 11:00 am

bubba hotep wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Will be missed and what a tenured career Marty had, vital services saving lives and money.

There is a center of low pressure in Southern Oklahoma, a couple of MCS/complex of storms will pivot through NTX today around that system.


Complex setup. Looks like the first impulse will mostly leave the atmosphere across DFW intact. The trailing one will have better timing, and southern flow will continue into DFW as it approaches. There are even some storms starting to pop out west of DFW in the southerly flow.


Looks like the airport just missed out on some heavy rain but Love is probably getting it.
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Re: Texas Spring 2024

#1680 Postby snownado » Thu May 30, 2024 11:07 am

First round is sub-severe, but has turned into a heavy rain threat for the NE. DFW suburbs, with a flash flood warning in effect for portions of Collin / Denton County.

Will have to watch the evolution of that 2nd line of storms to the SW of Wichita Fallas for this afternoon though, for severe activity. 

EDIT: And now a Flood Warning as well for Dallas County.
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