Texas Fall 2024

[Stratton23]

Ntxw please! Modes do indicate some sort of ridge building in NW canada or maybe Alaska, GFS is more central canada which would not be good if you want a good shot of cooler fall air, EURO had the ridge more positioned in NW canada and close to alaska, but its also possible its gone on the next run, guess we shall see how the upper level pattern evolves over the next 7 days

[Stratton23]

The GFS and EURO both have similar upper air patterns in the medium range, both have our pesky gulf of alaska trough weakening allowing for heights to increase over alaska, as the same time a new ridge begins to develop in NW canada, along ways to go, but with that kind of a pattern, that could deliver some much cooler air to a good chink of the country including here in texas , will be interesting to see how this continues to show up in the models

[Brent]

I'm so tired of the sun all day please do something else

Somehow our record for 90s in October is 14 days from the 60s let's not go for that

Well an OKC met is saying "much cooler" mid month

[CaptinCrunch]

No cold air for you!

The cooler air will not make it here, upper air jet will push it off to the east. Please enjoy this prolong summer pattern as a consolation prize.

The next 2 weeks will be above average temps and notta precipitation chances. Looking at the past several Octobers all I can say is, we didn't see a pattern change till the last week of the month.

[starsfan65]

No cold air for you!

The cooler air will not make it here, upper air jet will push it off to the east. Please enjoy this prolong summer pattern as a consolation prize.

The next 2 weeks will be above average temps and notta precipitation chances. Looking at the past several Octobers all I can say is, we didn't see a pattern change till the last week of the month.

Who said that?

[Stratton23]

I disagree, im seeing enough evidence in the models that a shot of much cooler canadian air will be intruding the central and Eastern US around the 14/15th with blocking setting up in canada on the GEFS, GFS/ Euro have almost similar upper air patterns for this to happen, GEFS is actually trending cooler as well, mid month cooldown will come, nothing crazy, but some much needed relief at least temperature wise

[Brent]

If it helps the hottest October on record here had a very snowy winter...

[Stratton23]

Now thats a bonafide fall front on the 00z GFS at day 9/10!

[Brent]

Now thats a bonafide fall front on the 00z GFS at day 9/10!

Snow in Kansas this run

By far the closest it's been

They weren't kidding about that much cooler air

[CaptinCrunch]

Now thats a bonafide fall front on the 00z GFS at day 9/10!

That's basically 2 weeks out if it verifys?

[Stratton23]

CaptinCrunch na the front makes it into the state in the 8-9 day range, not two weeks out lol

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW

LONG TERM... /Issued 309 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024/
/Next Week/

Next week`s upper level pattern will be comprised of troughing over the eastern third of the CONUS with a ridge dominating therest of the country. The weather across North and Central Texas will be influenced primarily by the ridge, with above-normal temperatures and dry conditions persisting through the end of next week. Some minor relief from the heat will start on Monday, however, following the passage of a weak cold front Sunday night.
This will drop temperatures from 10 degrees above to 5 degrees above normal, with lows ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s, and highs from the mid 80s to lower 90s. Normal temperatures for early to mid October range from lows in the 50s to highs around 80.

The tropics will need to be watched over the next several days as model guidance continues to spin up a disturbance in the Gulf into a more organized tropical system early to mid next week. If or when this system gets is act together, probabilities of it reaching the Texas coast are extremely low. The trough across the eastern CONUS will likely force the system east and away from the western Gulf.

It is now starting to look like the monotony of our weather may finally come to an end next weekend as a mid latitude trough digs southeast out of western Canada into the U.S. Plains, bringing with it a much stronger cold front. It is possible that the front will be accompanied by a round of convective weather as it pushes through North and Central Texas, but still too soon to get aggressive with rain chances. The current plan it to remain conservative with POPs until better model run-to-run consistency occurs, but either way it does look like more typical fall temperatures may soon be added to the extended forecast.

[Ntxw]

No model looks really cold. There is enough clipping of the trough to bring it down to normal (by mid October upper 70s for highs and low 60s for lows is average.) If the trough slides to the east then it will be a short reprieve. If we get a cutoff upper low and rain then it will stay near normal a bit longer.

[Brent]

Yeah our average is already 70s and dropping fast... We gotta get rolling

Although like I said last night the hottest October on record here had 14 inches of snow in the winter

[Stratton23]

Man if this was winter, that GFS run would be pretty nice for a big cold snap, GFS continues to advertise a blocking Alaskan ridge with a -NAO mid month and beyond lol

[Stratton23]

This zonal flow + pacific air thanks to a pesky aleutian low just sucks, its miserable , i guess the only interesting thing mentioning is their are some indications that the EPO may trend towards neutral/ negative as we get around the 20th of october and beyond, just looks like an extremely boring pattern ahead, nothing to talk about

[Brent]

Will it ever rain again

[HockeyTx82]

Will it ever rain again

Yes, when, not sure.

[rwfromkansas]

Ugh, I should be able to mostly turn off my sprinkler in October.

[Brent]

113 in Phoenix today that was 8 degrees over their record high

Are we sure it's October... The sunset tonight was before 7pm