Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
316 AM AST Sun Jan 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 305 AM AST Sun Jan 25 2026

* Hazardous conditions for small boat continue today along the
offshore Atlantic waters, but conditions will gradually improve
by tonight. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating these
waters.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, lots of sunshine is expected
through the first half of the day, with a few showers reaching
the islands later in the afternoon and evening hours.

* Partly cloudy skies will persist across Puerto Rico today, with
showers developing in the interior and west this afternoon. No
flooding risk is anticipated with these showers.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM AST Sun Jan 25 2026

During the overnight hours, clear to partly cloudy skies prevailed
across much of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with passing
showers brushing coastal areas at times. However, shower activity
gradually decreased toward the early morning hours as a dry slot
approached from the east. GOES-19 PWAT imagery indicated values
dropping below one inch within this drier air mass, supporting a
notable reduction in rainfall coverage and intensity. As a result,
mostly fair weather conditions with little to no rainfall are
expected during the morning hours today.

A few showers may still develop during the afternoon hours,
primarily over interior and western portions of Puerto Rico due to
local effects and diurnal heating, but activity is expected to be
less frequent and less widespread than observed on yesterday.

For the remainder of the short-term period, a mid-level ridge is
forecast to build and settle over the northeastern Caribbean. This
pattern will promote mid-level drying and increased subsidence,
along with warming near the 500 mb level, resulting in reduced
instability aloft. Precipitable water values will continue to
fluctuate as patches of shallow moisture move across the islands
from time to time. Consequently, mostly fair weather conditions are
expected to prevail, with passing showers affecting windward coastal
areas during the nighttime and morning hours, and some afternoon
shower development over interior and western sections of Puerto Rico
each day. The frequency and coverage of these showers will largely
depend on the timing and extent of these moisture patches.

Breezy easterly winds will continue today, particularly across
coastal and exposed areas. However, winds are expected to gradually
diminish through the end of the short-term forecast period as the
surface high pressure over the central Atlantic shifts eastward and
a col approaches from the northwest, weakening the pressure gradient
across the northeastern Caribbean.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 305 AM AST Sun Jan 25 2026

The mid to upper level ridge will hold on Wednesday. At the low
levels, limited moisture in anticipated, so fair weather should
persist until then. Then, there are some changes in store Thursday
onward. First, a polar trough will weaken the pressure gradient,
causing winds to become lighter. Surface steering flow will fall to
nearly 9 knots on Thursday to about 2-6 knots on Friday. The polar
trough will escort a cold front near Hispaniola and Cuba, with winds
shifting from the south from the surface into the mid levels of the
atmosphere. As a result, warmer than normal temperatures are
anticipated. Also, the shift in winds will bring a slot of dry air
on Thursday, followed by increasing moisture Friday onward. With
light winds on Friday, showers are expected to form in the
Cordillera Central, where urban and small stream flooding could
occur. Then, on the weekend, additional moisture will approach
from the south, and also from the north (associated with the cold
front). Increasing shower frequency is expected for the Caribbean
and Atlantic waters. The proximity of the cold front will cause
winds to weaken again on Sunday, with speeds of 1 to 5 knots and
variable wind speeds. The global models also show the front
crossing late on Sunday, which could cause another increase in
showers and thunderstorms across the area.

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 305 AM AST Sun Jan 25 2026

VFR conds will prevail across all terminals thru the fcst period.
Passing SHRA may affect mainly windward terminals at times, but no
sig VIS or CIGs restrictions are expected. Winds will remain from
the E–ENE at 10–16 kt with higher gusts possible, especially aft
25/14Z.&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM AST Sun Jan 25 2026

A building high pressure centered over the western Atlantic, north of
the islands, will bring moderate to fresh tonight through Monday.
Winds will remain moderate toward the middle portion of the week as
the high rolls into the central and eastern Atlantic. Showers will
be less frequent today, moving across the Atlantic and Caribbean
waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 305 AM AST Sun Jan 25 2026

Breezy conditions will maintain a moderate rip current risk for
the north and east facing beaches of Puerto Rico, as well as for
Vieques, Culebra and all the beaches across the Virgin Islands.
Similar conditions are expected to persist through the upcoming
days, with only the west, south, and southwest of Puerto Rico with
a low risk of rip currents.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
417 AM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 414 AM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

* Wind-driven seas will continue to produce choppy marine conditions
today, gradually subsiding as winds decrease during the week.

* Hazardous seas and coastal conditions may return next weekend as a
long-period northerly swell and an approaching frontal boundary
affect the regional waters.

* Passing showers will affect the islands at times, with a low risk
of minor flooding, mainly in urban and poor drainage areas.

* Shower activity is expected to increase by late next weekend as
a weakening frontal boundary and increasing moisture approach
the region, with a potential for locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 414 AM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

Showers were observed during the night hours around the Caribbean
and Atlantic waters, with some showers reaching St. John and St.
Thomas and eastern Puerto Rico. However, Multi-radar Multi-sensor
rainfall accumulation only showed amounts below ten hundredth of an
inch. Skies were variably cloudy, and temperatures cooled down to
the low 70s in coastal areas and the mid-60s in the mountains.

Surface high pressure continue to roll toward the eastern Atlantic,
maintain the gradient relatively strong today. Winds will be coming
out of the east southeast at 15 to 20 knots with stronger gusts. As
the high moves farther away, winds will relax a little, at nearly 10
knots. Today, satellite derived precipitable water imagery shows a
little area of dry air reaching the Virgin Islands and eastern
Puerto Rico in the morning hours. However, an area of enhanced
moisture will filter in just in time for local effects to kick in.
With the breezy winds, streamers are favored across the Cordillera
Central, from El Yunque into the San Juan metro area, westward of
the Virgin Islands, and across western Puerto Rico. Shower activity
could lead to ponding of water on roadways and low-lying areas.
Isolated urban and small stream flooding cannot be ruled out.
Tomorrow, the trade winds will bring another patch of moisture into
the islands, so expect similar weather conditions. The risk of
flooding will be low, and focused on western Puerto Rico. On
Wednesday, precipitable water values fall well below normal. With
this drier than normal air, mostly fair weather is anticipated,
although a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out.

Southeast winds will cause temperatures to climb up. At this time,
925 mb temperatures will be nearly one standard deviation above
normal. Highs will be around 87 to 89 degrees in coastal areas, with
lows still comfortable, around the 70s in coastal areas and in the
60s in the mountains.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 414 AM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

The overall synoptic pattern will remain largely unchanged through
the early part of the period. Ridging aloft will persist across the
region through at least Friday, while limited low-level moisture
supports generally fair weather conditions. As a result, stable
conditions are expected to continue, with only brief passing showers
mainly driven by patches of moisture streaming across the area from
time to time.

Changes in the pattern become more noticeable toward the latter part
of the weekend. Global model guidance continues to suggest
increasing moisture associated with a weakening frontal boundary,
although the timing of this feature has been pushed back. Moisture
advection from the south ahead of the approaching boundary remains a
consistent signal among global models, particularly by late Sunday.
This increase in moisture, combined with modest instability, will
support a higher frequency of showers, especially across the
Caribbean waters and western sections of Puerto Rico. The Galvez-
Davison Index indicates elevated values near the frontal boundary,
suggesting an increased potential for heavy rainfall-producing
thunderstorms approaching from the west as the boundary nears the
islands.

Potential impacts by the end of the period include periods of
locally heavy rainfall, isolated thunderstorms, and ponding of water
in poor drainage areas, with a limited risk of urban and small-
stream flooding. Gusty wind conditions may also accompany convective
activity, particularly near thunderstorms.

Southeasterly to southerly low-level flow ahead of the boundary will
develop late by the end of the week into the weekend, promoting
above normal temperatures across the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 414 AM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail. SHRA will move across the
local waters all day today. After 17Z, SHRA expected to increase
along the Cordillera Central, potentially reaching TJSJ and TJBQ at
times. Periods of reduced VIS and low ceilings can be expected. It
stays breezy today, with winds from SFC to FL050 at 17-21 kts, with
stronger gusts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 414 AM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

A building high-pressure system centered over the western Atlantic
and gradually moving eastward will continue to promote moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds through at least today. Winds are
expected to gradually ease from midweek into late week as the high
shifts farther east into the central Atlantic. Looking ahead to next
weekend, a long-period northerly swell is expected to reach the
regional Atlantic waters, which may result in hazardous marine
conditions, particularly across the offshore Atlantic waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 414 AM AST Mon Jan 26 2026

Breezy conditions continue across the regional waters, maintaining
choppy seas and a moderate risk of rip currents along most exposed
beaches. The highest risk remains along the north- and east-facing
beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra, as well as the U.S.
Virgin Islands, where lingering wind-driven seas continue to enhance
rip current formation.

Winds are expected to gradually subside through the week; however,
periodic pulses of weak northerly swells will move through the
region, sustaining moderate rip current risks along northern exposed
beaches of the islands. As a result, life-threatening rip currents
will remain possible, particularly at beaches exposed to the
Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
444 AM AST Tue Jan 27 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 437 AM AST Tue Jan 27 2026

* Small Craft Advisory and High Rip Current Risk are in effect
today, as a northerly swell impacts the offshore Atlantic waters
and northern exposed beaches.

* Hazardous seas and coastal conditions may return this weekend due
to the arrival of another northerly swell, potentially affecting
the Atlantic waters and north-facing coastlines.

* Passing showers will affect the islands at times with afternoon
shower activities over western Puerto Rico. At most, ponding of
water in roads and poorly drained areas.

* There is a medium chance of observing an increase in shower
coverage and isolated thunderstorms this weekend as tropical
moisture moves into the region, with a potential for locally
heavy rainfall.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 437 AM AST Tue Jan 27 2026

Mostly clear skies gave way to cool temperatures during the
overnight hours. Some places in the interior of Puerto Rico
registered values below 60 degrees. Coastal areas in the west had
lows in the mid and upper 60s, while eastern Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands saw values in the low and mid 70s. Some showers
managed to form across the Caribbean and Atlantic waters, but almost
no activity was detected over land areas.

The surface high that it's driving the trade winds from the east
southeast is now centered over the eastern Atlantic. The gradient
has weaken since yesterday, and winds speeds should be at 10 to 15
mph. Aloft, a ridge is in placed over the central Caribbean, with
dry air in the mid levels. The most recent satellite derived
precipitable water imagery confirms that a small area of moisture
will cross the local islands today. Showers should increase a little
in the morning, mostly for eastern Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands. Since the patch of moisture should cross Puerto Rico at mid-
day, it is likely that some showers will develop along the interior
and west, leading to ponding of water in roadways and low lying
areas. Once this patch of moisture cross, conditions dry out quickly
tonight, with dew point depressions of 20 to 30 degrees Celsius
expected.

For tomorrow and Thursday, the atmosphere becomes more stable, with
500 mb temperatures about two standard deviation warmer than normal.
Regardless, the trade winds will continue to carry small patches of
moisture near the area. Tomorrow, the probability of precipitation
is about 30-40% for the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, and
50% for western Puerto Rico in the afternoon hours. However,
accumulations are expected to be on the light side. Thursday looks
drier once again, at least in the morning and early afternoon hours.
Winds will become lighter, and coming from the south-southeasterly.
Thicknesses at 1000-850 mb will increase, and hence, it will feel
warmer too, with highs in the upper 80s in coastal and low elevated
areas.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 437 AM AST Tue Jan 27 2026

The synoptic pattern will remain generally unchanged through the
long-term period, with a frontal boundary approaching the region
from the northwest. Southerly to southeasterly low-level flow ahead
of this boundary will continue, promoting above normal temperatures
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Based on the latest global model guidance, Friday is expected to be
the relatively less active day of the period, as deeper moisture
remains south of the area. Conditions are forecast to become
progressively wetter over the weekend as southerly flow strengthens
and begins to pull tropical moisture over the region, earlier than
indicated in previous model cycles.

Precipitable water values are forecast to increase beginning
Saturday, rising from near 1.3 inches on Friday to near or above 2.0
inches by Saturday and Sunday, which is well above normal for this
time of year. This increase in moisture will support higher shower
coverage and rainfall intensity, particularly during the weekend and
into early next week.

At upper levels, the region will be positioned between an upper-
level trough to the northwest and a ridge to the southeast, with
favorable dynamics aloft depending on the exact placement and
evolution of the trough. Nevertheless, sufficient instability may
remain in the vicinity, and when combined with daytime heating,
local effects, and sea breeze convergence, isolated thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out, mainly during the afternoon hours across
interior and northwest/northern Puerto Rico. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible with the strongest convection.

Potential impacts include ponding of water in urban and poorly
drained areas, as well as localized urban and small stream flooding,
particularly from Saturday through Monday. Gusty winds may also
accompany heavier showers and any isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 437 AM AST Tue Jan 27 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail. Moisture surge will
increase showers after 14Z along eastern PR/USVI. From 15-21Z, SHRA
will develop along the Cordillera Central, likely reaching TJPS at
times. Periods of reduced VIS and low ceilings can be expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 437 AM AST Tue Jan 27 2026

Winds are gradually easing as the surface high pressure shifts
farther east into the central Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds will prevail through midweek turning light by the end
of the week. However, a northerly swell will result in hazardous
seas across the offshore Atlantic waters through this evening.
Looking ahead to next weekend, another long-period northerly swell is
expected to reach the regional Atlantic waters, which may result in
hazardous marine conditions once again, particularly across the
offshore Atlantic waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 437 AM AST Tue Jan 27 2026

Breezy wind conditions across the regional waters are gradually
subsiding; however, a northerly swell is moving into the Atlantic
waters today. Buoy 41043 is already reporting a swell near 6 feet
with periods of 10 to 11 seconds. As a result, estimated breaking
waves of approximately 6 to 8 feet are anticipated along the
northern exposed beaches of Puerto Rico. These conditions will
support a High Risk of rip currents through at least this evening
for the north-facing beaches of the island.

Across the smaller islands, including Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, lingering swell energy will continue to maintain a
moderate to locally high risk of rip currents, especially along
north-facing and exposed beaches.

Beachgoers are strongly urged to follow local beach safety guidance
and avoid entering the water at beaches with posted high rip current
risk.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
425 AM AST Wed Jan 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 422 AM AST Wed Jan 28 2026

* Relatively stable weather conditions is expected through Friday,
with brief morning showers in eastern areas of Puerto Rico and
USVI and afternoon showers developing over western Puerto Rico;
minor ponding on roads is possible.

* An approaching frontal boundary could bring increasing showers and
thunderstorms this weekend into early next week, accompanied by
lightning and gusty winds. Flooding threats may increase from
limited to elevated, including urban and small stream flooding,
especially in areas where heavy rainfall persists.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, the potential for heavy rainfall and
thunderstorms appears lower this weekend into early next week, as
the most active weather is currently expected to remain west of
the islands. However, passing showers and isolated thunderstorms
are still possible.

* Marine and coastal conditions may become hazardous by early next
week, with increasing winds and building seas affecting small
craft, along with an elevated rip current risk along north-
facing beaches, creating dangerous swimming conditions at
exposed locations.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 422 AM AST Wed Jan 28 2026

Overnight, relatively calm conditions and mostly clear skies
prevailed across the region. Consequently, cool temperatures were
observed across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with
minimums ranging from the upper 60s to low 70s in lower elevations
and the upper 50s to low 60s across the higher mountains of Puerto
Rico. Passing showers were noted primarily over the Anegada Passage,
west of St. Croix, and south of Vieques.

Today, local weather will be influenced by surface high pressure
over the central Atlantic and a mid-to-upper-level ridge,
maintaining stable and relatively dry conditions aloft. However, a
patch of low-level moisture carried by the trade winds will filter
into the area, bringing rounds of morning showers to the U.S. Virgin
Islands and portions of eastern and northern Puerto Rico, including
the San Juan metro area. By this afternoon, activity will shift
toward western and northwestern Puerto Rico, driven by daytime
heating and orographic effects. Streamer activity is also possible
from El Yunque toward the San Juan metro area, potentially resulting
in additional afternoon showers. While precipitable water values
will start below the climatological normal at 1.30 inches, they are
expected to rise to an above-normal 1.75 inches by the afternoon.
This setup poses a limited flooding risk, primarily involving
ponding on roads and in areas with poor drainage.

A similar pattern is expected Thursday and Friday, with drier air
filtering in during the early morning followed by another
disturbance that will trigger showers from mid-morning onward.
Conditions will become increasingly unstable late Friday into
Saturday as moisture from a frontal boundary and tropical moisture
from the Caribbean approach the region.

Throughout the short term, temperatures at the 925 mb level will
remain slightly above climatological normals. Maximum temperatures
are forecast to reach the mid-80s in lower elevations and the mid-to-
upper 70s across the higher terrain.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 422 AM AST Wed Jan 28 2026

The synoptic pattern is forecast to remain generally unchanged
through the long-term period, with a frontal boundary lingering near
the local area. A southerly to southeasterly low-level flow ahead of
this boundary will persist, continuing to advect warm and moist air
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. As a result, above-
normal temperatures are expected to persist through the period.

Global model guidance continues to indicate an increase in available
moisture beginning Saturday, with precipitable water values rising
to near 2.0 inches or higher and remaining above climatological
normals through early next week. Low- to mid-level moisture,
particularly below 700 mb, is forecast to remain elevated. Although
some drying at mid levels (around 700-500 mb) is suggested at times,
the overall moisture profile should remain sufficient to support
periods of enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity.

At upper levels, the region is expected to remain between an upper-
level trough over the western Atlantic and a ridge to the southeast,
providing periods of favorable upper-level dynamics depending on the
exact placement and evolution of these features. This pattern,
combined with persistent low-level moisture convergence along the
nearby frontal boundary, will support increasing rainfall coverage,
particularly from Sunday through Tuesday.

Recent guidance continues to suggest a signal for above-normal
rainfall across portions of the forecast area early next week. Of
note, ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index output consistently highlights a
rainfall signal several days in advance, which is somewhat
surprising given the lead time and suggests increasing ensemble
agreement toward a wetter-than-normal pattern. While confidence in
the exact timing, magnitude, and spatial distribution of rainfall
remains limited at this range, the persistence of the signal
supports a continued potential for locally heavy rainfall,
especially where showers and thunderstorms repeatedly affect the
same areas. Some uncertainty remains with respect to the exact
placement of the frontal boundary, as a westward position closer to
Hispaniola would result in reduced low-level convergence and
consequently less widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage across
the local forecast area.

Diurnal heating, local effects, and sea breeze convergence will
continue to play a role in convective development each afternoon,
depending on the persistence of cloud cover, mainly across interior
and western to northwestern Puerto Rico. Potential impacts include
ponding of water on roadways, urban and small stream flooding, and
localized flooding, particularly in areas that receive repeated
rounds of rainfall. Gusty winds may accompany heavier showers or
isolated thunderstorms.

Overall, the long-term period is expected to remain unsettled, with
the primary concerns being above-normal rainfall and localized
flooding potential through at least Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 422 AM AST Wed Jan 28 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail across all TAF sites
during the next 24 hrs. A patch of low-level moisture surge will
increase SHRA aft 28/14Z across eastern PR and the USVI. Later this
afternoon SHRA will develop along central PR and spreading toward
the northwest portions of PR, affecting TJBQ aft 28/17Z. Periods of
reduced VIS and low ceilings can be expected with the strongest
activity. East winds will prevail from 10-15 kt with stronger gusts
and sea breeze variations aft 28/13-14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 422 AM AST Wed Jan 28 2026

Light to moderate easterly winds will prevail through the end of the
week as surface high pressure shifts eastward, with seas generally
subsiding across the local waters. By early next week, a
northwesterly to northerly long-period swell is expected to reach
the regional waters by Monday, combining with increasing winds to
produce choppy to rough seas and potentially hazardous marine
conditions, including Small Craft Advisory criteria, particularly
across the offshore Atlantic waters and passages. An increase in
shower and thunderstorm activity is also expected from this
weekend into early next week, especially over the northwestern
Atlantic waters and the Mona Passage, with lightning and gusty
winds possible.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 422 AM AST Wed Jan 28 2026

A series of weak northerly swells will continue to reach the
Atlantic waters through the week and into the weekend, maintaining a
moderate rip current risk along most north-facing beaches of the
islands, where life-threatening rip currents are possible. Localized
areas of high rip current risk cannot be ruled out, particularly
along the most exposed beaches during periods of higher swell energy.

Beach conditions may further deteriorate by early next week due to
increasing winds and the arrival of a northwesterly to northerly
long-period swell, which could result in more hazardous surf
conditions. In addition, showers and thunderstorms, especially from
this weekend into early next week, may produce gusty winds,
lightning, and rapidly changing conditions, increasing the risk for
beachgoers.