Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
241 AM AST Sun Apr 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 240 AM AST Sun Apr 12 2026

* Locally induced showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop once again over the interior and western portions of
Puerto Rico this afternoon, where the flood threat is elevated.

* Across the US Virgin Islands, showers are expected to increase
from late tonight into Monday morning.

* There is a Flood Watch for Puerto Rico and the US Virgin
Islands, and will be in effect from 10 AM Monday through 8 AM
Wednesday.

* A High Risk of Rip Currents remains in effect for the western,
northern, and eastern coast of Puerto Rico and Culebra through
Monday afternoon.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 240 AM AST Sun Apr 12 2026

Clear to partly cloudy skies were observed overnight across the
islands. Passing showers were noted mainly across the Anegada
Passage and Caribbean waters. As of 2 AM, minimum temperatures
were from the low 60s across the higher elevations of Puerto Rico
to the mid 70s across the lower elevations of the islands. The
wind was from the east at 10 mph or less. For the rest of the
morning hours, low-level clouds with scattered showers currently
over the Leeward Islands, are expected to move across portions of
the USVI and eastern PR. This surge in moisture will combine with
daytime heating and the sea breeze convergence to trigger the
development of showers and thunderstorms along the mountain ranges
of PR during the afternoon hours. Urban and small stream flooding
is likely with this activity.

For Monday and Tuesday, the combination of an approaching front,
a developing pre-frontal trough, and a mid-to upper-level trough
will promote a moist and unstable weather pattern across the
region. Satellite derived Total Precipitable Water (TPW) imagery
indicates a deep moisture plume from the NW Atlantic and another
developing over the eastern Caribbean. Global model guidance
indicates the Precipitable Water Content (PWAT) increasing from
1.70 inches today to near 2.00 inches through Tuesday, which is
above the 75th percentile for the season. Colder than normal 500
mb temperatures of -10C and -11C are also expected in response to
the deep layer upper level trough. Winds will generally be light
from the east to southeast over land areas, as the surface trough
develops over the region. However, a northeasterly component is
expected between Monday afternoon and early Tuesday morning as the
front sinks further southward across the islands. This period is
expected to be the most active in terms of the heaviest showers.
Daily rainfall accumulations are expected to range between 1 and
3 inches with locally higher amounts. This rainfall over saturated
soils will maintain an elevated threat for urban and river
flooding as well as potential mudslides in areas of steep terrain.
Therefore, a Flood Watch is in effect for all of PR and the USVI
during this time frame.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 240 AM AST Sun Apr 12 2026

The wet and unsettled weather pattern may extend into the long-term
forecast. A surface high pressure is expected to build over the
Western Atlantic, gradually increasing the pressure gradient,
resulting in strengthening southeasterly to easterly winds. These
conditions will bring back breezy to locally windy conditions across
the coastal areas of the islands. Nevertheless, the influence of the
deep-layered trough and abundant moisture content across the CWA
will maintain a limited to elevated risk of flooding. From the
latest model guidance, at least through Saturday, PWAT values should
increase and remain above normal for this time of the year (between
1.6 and 1.8 inches, low chance for 2.0 inches). Additionally,
moisture content in the low and mid levels should remain high
through most of the period, with relative humidity above 60 - 70 %,
and steep lapse rates in the 850 - 700 mb levels. Due to the
proximity of the trough, mid level temperatures will likely remain
cooler than normal (around - 8 degrees Celsius), while a jet streak
in the high levels will maintain strong winds (70 - 80 kt) through
Saturday, allowing ventilation and cloud growth. Additionally, the
Galvez-Davison Index (GDI) suggests deep convection activity across
the CWA, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the afternoons
and the night hours. The most likely scenario, from Wednesday
through Saturday, is moderate to locally heavy showers and isolated
thunderstorms moving over windward sections of Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands throughout the day, with afternoon convection
over the interior into northwestern/western sections of Puerto Rico.
Due to the expected weather event in the short term, saturated soils
and above-normal river levels are very likely and may enhance
flooding potential. Hence, the limited to elevated flooding threat
remains, with a limited lightning potential. Impacts may include
urban and small stream flooding, with localized flash flood,
landslides, and rapid river rises. By Sunday into Monday, weather
conditions should gradually improve, but there are discrepancies
between global solutions for early next week as members of the GEFS
are tending to wetter conditions, while ENS members are tending to a
seasonal pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 240 AM AST Sun Apr 12 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the morning
hours across all terminals. However, passing -SHRA en route fm the
Leeward terminals may reach the USVI and eastern PR terminals.
From 16z-22z, +SHRA/TSRA are expected to develop over the
interior of PR, causing mostly VCTS across the PR terminals, with
possible tempo MVFR conds at TJBQ/TJSJ. East winds between 8-14 kt
with sea breeze variations expected aft 12/14z. An approaching
front from the NW Atlantic waters could lead to +TSRA across the
offshore Atlantic waters and Mona Passage from late tonight into
Monday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 AM AST Sun Apr 12 2026

A broad surface high pressure across the central Atlantic and a
front over the western Atlantic will promote moderate trades
through the rest of the weekend. Pulses of northerly swell will
continue to move through the Atlantic waters and passages,
where small craft should continue to exercise caution for the next
several days. Between Monday through Wednesday, the combination of
the front and associated pre-frontal trough will increase showers
and thunderstorms across the local waters, creating locally
hazardous marine conditions. Small Craft Advisory conditions are
expected across the Atlantic waters due to seas building up to 7
feet through midweek.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 240 AM AST Sun Apr 12 2026

A life-threatening risk of rip currents will persist through at
least Monday afternoon as a pulse of northerly swell maintains a
High Rip Current Risk across the north-facing beaches of Puerto
Rico from the northwest through the northeast, as well as Culebra,
and this risk may be extended. Across Vieques and the U.S. Virgin
Islands, a moderate risk of rip currents will continue, while a
low risk persists along the southern and more protected beaches of
Puerto Rico. Increasing winds early to midweek could expand areas
of High Rip Current Risk. Avoid the water at high-risk beaches;
rip currents are likely and can be life-threatening. Sharing is
saving.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 240 AM AST Sun Apr 12 2026

As a mid-to upper-level trough approaches from the northwest, the
likelihood of flooding is increasing from late tonight until at
least midweek. An elevated flooding risk is forecast through this
period. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in frequency on
Monday, but the heaviest activity is anticipated for Monday night
into Tuesday. Although a level of uncertainty is still present,
the days with the highest potential for flooding are Monday and
Tuesday. However, above normal moisture will persist through late
in the week. The likelihood of urban and small stream flooding,
isolated flash flooding, landslides and rapid river rises continues
to increase. Residents and visitors are urged to remain alert to
changing weather conditions and to avoid flooded roadways. A Flood
Watch (FFASJU) and an Hydrologic Outlook (ESFSJU) are currently
in effect to highlight this flooding potential.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
213 AM AST Mon Apr 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 210 AM AST Mon Apr 13 2026

* A wet and unstable weather pattern will bring widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the area, with a Flash Flood
Watch in effect from 10 AM today through Wednesday.

* An elevated to significant flooding risk is expected across
the islands; residents are urged to exercise caution, avoid
flood- prone areas, and never cross flooded roads.

* The wettest period is expected from tonight into early Tuesday
morning, when the heaviest rainfall and most persistent shower
activity are likely.

* A moderate risk of rip currents will persist across all local
beaches, creating hazardous conditions for swimmers.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, an elevated to significant flooding
risk is expected from early Tuesday morning through the day as
periods of heavy rainfall impact the area.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 210 AM AST Mon Apr 13 2026

Moderate to strong showers affected the Atlantic offshore and nearshore
waters for most of the night, resulting in hazardous marine
conditions due to locally higher seas and gusty winds. Given the
prevailing conditions, several Special Marine Warnings and Marine
Weather Statements were issued throughout the night. As the night
progressed, by 2 AM, showers shifted southward into coastal areas,
affecting portions of eastern and northeastern Puerto Rico,
including municipalities near Naguabo, Fajardo, and Rio Grande.
Overnight temperatures remained in the lower 70s across coastal
areas, with even cooler conditions across the mountains.

For today, the forecast of a wetter and more unstable weather
pattern remains on track. As a result, a Flash Flood Watch will be
in effect from 10 AM today through Wednesday across the entire
area. At upper levels, a deep trough with its axis just over
Hispaniola places the islands under a divergent region, favoring
vertical development and widespread thunderstorm activity. This
upper-level feature will allow colder temperatures at 500 mb,
ranging between -9°C and -10°C, which are around two standard
deviations below climatological normals. At the surface, a frontal
boundary and the associated pre-frontal trough will reach the
local area. Winds will shift to a northerly component from this
afternoon into early Tuesday as the frontal boundary moves
southward across the region. Additionally, abundant deep moisture
will be in place, with relative humidity values from 850 mb up to
500 mb near the 75th percentile. All of these factors provide a
well-defined setup for a very convective day. Model guidance
suggests an increase in showers during the morning hours, with
activity expanding and intensifying through the afternoon.
According to the highest-resolution models, a very active weather
day is expected, with the strongest convection developing across
the interior and then moving into northwestern and interior Puerto
Rico. By late afternoon into the evening, showers will affect
northeastern areas, extending into Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. An important factor for today will be the surface
wind pattern, as slow-moving showers will favor higher rainfall
accumulations in addition to the widespread shower activity. As a
result, an elevated to significant flooding threat is expected
across the entire forecast area today. Residents are advised to
avoid rivers and not to cross flooded roads or low-lying areas.

On Tuesday in the early morning hours into Wednesday, conditions
will remain on the unstable side, as the upper-level trough
continues to deepen, leaving a cut-off low just over the area.
This feature will be reflected through the column, resulting in a
low at 500 mb and an induced surface trough extending from around
1000 mb up to 700 mb. The presence of colder temperatures aloft
and the slow movement of this feature will continue to support
enhanced instability and prolonged convective activity across the
region. Given the expected conditions deteriorate weather
conditions are forecast across the islands. Given the expected
rainfall accumulations and the already saturated soils, this
pattern will maintain an elevated to significant risk of urban and
river flooding, as well as potential mudslides in areas of steep
terrain. Again, a Flood Watch is in effect from 10 AM this morning
through 8 AM Wednesday for all of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Residents and visitors should continue to monitor the
latest weather information.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 210 AM AST Mon Apr 13 2026

No major changes were made to the long-term forecast, as the wet and
unsettled weather pattern is likely to persist into the weekend,
gradually improving by the first part of the next workweek. A
surface high pressure is expected to build over the Western
extending into the Central Atlantic, promoting SE-E winds through
Sunday. As a surface trough over the Hispaniola weakens, the
pressure gradient will likely increase, with winds gradually
strengthening throughout the period, resulting in breezy to windy
conditions across the coastal areas of the islands. In the mid to
upper levels, the deep-layered trough may linger and deepen into the
tropics, with our CWA under the favorable side for convection. From
the latest model guidance, moisture content will remain higher for
this time of the year, with PWAT values likely between 1.8 and 2.0
inches low chance of higher values. Additionally, the low to mid-
level moisture content should remain higher than normal, with model
soundings suggesting skinny profiles, particularly on Friday and
Saturday. In terms of convection, the influence of the trough will
maintain slightly cooler than normal mid-level temperatures (500 mb
temperatures around -8 degrees Celsius), a jet streak with 250 mb
winds between 60 and 80 knots, and divergence aloft, triggering
upper-level dynamics. Under these conditions, forced vertical motion
will result in cloud growth and ventilation, favorable for deep
convection. Additionally, the Galvez-Davison Index (GDI) continues
to suggest the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms
across the CWA, particularly in the afternoons over interior into
north/northwestern Puerto Rico and in the night across regional
waters, eastern Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, the weather event in the short-
term forecast may result in saturated soils and higher-than-normal
river levels. A factor that may slightly inhibit deeper convection
is the winds, which may lead to more progressive showers instead of
stationary ones. Nevertheless, with the expected weather forecast
through Sunday, showers and thunderstorms over the CWA will increase
the flooding and lightning potential. Rainfall accumulations will
likely result in urban and small stream flooding, including
localized flash floods, including landslides, and rapid river rises.
Additionally, thunderstorms may result in gusty winds, reduced
visibility, and lightning. Residents and visitors of the islands are
encouraged to keep monitoring conditions and the next issuance of
the long-term forecast. By Monday, as another surface high pressure
builds over the western Atlantic and wind shifts from the NE, the
weather pattern should gradually improve with a drier air mass
filtering into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 210 AM AST Mon Apr 13 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions are expected across all TAF sites today due
to an increase in SHRA and TSRA activity. Periods of reduced VIS
and lowering CIGs are anticipated, with tempo IFR conditions
possible in heavier showers and thunderstorms. Mountain
obscurations will persist, especially across interior and western
sections. Winds will remain VRB through 13/15Z, then increase to
around 10 KT from the E-SE as the surface trough lifts north of
the area. Thereafter, winds will become light and variable again,
before gradually shifting to the NE around 14/03Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 210 AM AST Mon Apr 13 2026

Moderate easterly trades will persist through the period
as high pressure remains over the central Atlantic, with periods of
locally fresh winds. Combined with ongoing northerly swell, this
will maintain choppy conditions across the Atlantic waters and
passages. Increasing showers and thunderstorms early next week will
lead to locally hazardous marine conditions, including gusty winds
and reduced visibility, though impacts will be brief and variable.
By midweek, a combination of stronger winds and building swell may
result in hazardous conditions for small craft, particularly across
the Atlantic waters.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 210 AM AST Mon Apr 13 2026

Rip current conditions have improved as wave
energy has decreased, no longer supporting a High Rip Current Risk.
However, a moderate risk of rip currents is in place for most north-
and east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and
Culebra, as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands, meaning rip currents
are still possible and can be life-threatening. A low risk will
likely persist across western Puerto Rico, from Anasco and
Mayaguez southward and east along the Caribbean coast through
southeastern Puerto Rico, including Patillas, Maunabo, and
Yabucoa. Increasing winds early to midweek could lead to a return
of more hazardous marine and coastal conditions. Exercise caution
at the beach, especially along exposed coasts. Sharing is saving.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 210 AM AST Mon Apr 13 2026

As a mid-to upper-level trough approaches from the northwest, the
likelihood of flooding is expected until at least midweek. An
elevated flooding risk is forecast through this period. The
heaviest activity is anticipated for this evening into early
morning hours on Tuesday. Although a level of uncertainty is
still present, the days with the highest potential for flooding
are today and Tuesday. However, above normal moisture will
persist through late in the week. The likelihood of urban and
small stream flooding, isolated flash flooding, landslides and
rapid river rises continues to increase. Residents and visitors
are urged to remain alert to changing weather conditions and to
avoid flooded roadways. A Flood Watch (FFASJU) and an Hydrologic
Outlook (ESFSJU) are currently in effect to highlight this
flooding potential.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
232 AM AST Tue Apr 14 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 232 AM AST Tue Apr 14 2026

* Deteriorating weather conditions are expected to continue
through the rest of the week as an unsettled pattern promotes periods
of showers and thunderstorms across the region. Therefore, a
Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until Wednesday afternoon
for all of Puerto Rico.

* A moderate risk of rip currents will persist across local
beaches over the next several days.

* Seas are forecast to
gradually increase during the latter part of the week,
resulting in building wave heights and more hazardous marine
conditions for small craft, particularly across the offshore
Atlantic waters and passages.

* Variable and unstable weather conditions will prevail across
the U.S. Virgin Islands, driven by increasing atmospheric
instability and shifting wind patterns, which will support the
development of scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 232 AM AST Tue Apr 14 2026

Overnight conditions were mostly cloudy to overcast across the
entire forecast area, with skies remaining largely covered through
the night. Shower activity over land was limited, with only a few
brief and isolated showers observed; however, more persistent
shower activity prevailed across the Caribbean and Atlantic
waters, occasionally moving near the coastal areas. These cloudier
conditions helped keep temperatures relatively mild along the
coasts, generally in the mid-70s, while cooler temperatures were
observed across the higher elevations due to elevation and cloud
cover. Overall, it was a calm but cloudy night with most of the
rainfall remaining offshore.

A mid-level cut-off low will remain positioned north of the
region today, promoting a strong upper-level jet streak of over 90
knots across the local area and supporting enhanced divergence
aloft, which will favor convective development. At 500 mb, a low
will induce a southwesterly flow around 25 knots, while at the
surface, an induced trough will promote variable to east-
southeasterly winds across eastern Puerto Rico and surrounding
waters, introducing some uncertainty in the focus of showers
throughout the day. Moisture will remain abundant, with
precipitable water values around the 75th percentile, well above
climatological normals, while mid-level relative humidity values
between 750–500 mb will exceed two standard deviations above
normal early in the day before gradually decreasing. Cold
temperatures aloft, ranging between -9 to -10°C at 500 mb, will
enhance instability and support the development of isolated to
scattered thunderstorms embedded within the broader shower
activity. Based on the latest analysis and model guidance, shower
activity is expected to start around mid to late morning and then
become more widespread across the interior and western sections of
Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours, with some showers
becoming locally heavy and resulting in urban and small stream
flooding. Therefore, a Flood Watch remains in effect for today,
with an elevated to significant flooding risk across portions of
the islands, although some uncertainty persists regarding the
exact placement and movement of the heaviest rainfall due to the
variable low-level wind flow associated with the surface trough.

For Wednesday, surface conditions will evolve as winds within the
0–3 km layer remain from the southeast while a surface
perturbation moves across the forecast area. According to model
guidance, the induced surface trough is expected to move east of
the CWA earlier in the day; however, the GFS places a more
defined low center just northwest of the area, and these
discrepancies may introduce some uncertainty in the overall
conditions. Nonetheless, sufficient deep moisture, with
precipitable water values near 1.8 inches, above-normal relative
humidity between 850–700 mb, and slightly colder temperatures at
500 mb will support a convective pattern with better-organized
convection, especially during the afternoon as cloudiness
interacts with local effects. Given these conditions, an elevated
flooding risk is expected, particularly across northwestern
sections of the islands, including the San Juan metro area, due to
the prevailing wind direction as the induced surface trough moves
across the region.

For Thursday, conditions become slightly more interesting at 250
mb as the previous cut-off low shifts eastward out of the area,
while a deep-layered trough continues to deepen with its axis
positioned over Hispaniola, leaving Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands under its influence. As a result, a more unstable
and dynamic weather pattern is expected, with abundant moisture
and increasing instability combining with favorable upper-level
support to promote the development of scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms across the region. Activity will likely
begin by late morning and become more widespread through the
afternoon, especially across interior and western Puerto Rico,
where locally heavy rainfall is expected, supporting efficient
rainfall processes and some storm organization, which will
increase the risk of urban and small stream flooding along with
isolated gusty winds.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 232 AM AST Tue Apr 14 2026

An unsettled weather pattern is expected Friday through the weekend
into early next week as a short wave trough sinks into the
Caribbean. At the surface, high pressure over the western to central
Atlantic will promote moderate to fresh ESE to easterly winds Friday
and Saturday, becoming easterly Sunday and slightly ENE by Monday.
The pressure gradient will remain uneven, with stronger winds across
eastern areas and weaker flow farther west, supporting faster moving
showers in the east and slower storm motion in the west. Moisture
will increase Friday into the weekend, with PWAT values above normal
and at times exceeding climatological maxima, before slightly drier
air filters in late Sunday into Monday. Aloft, a jet streak will
lift over the area by Monday, while mid level temperatures remain
modestly cool. This pattern will support periods of convection and
isolated to locally scattered thunderstorm development across the
region. Confidence is medium, as details depend on the timing and
placement of the trough and deeper moisture.

Flooding will be the primary hazard, followed by lightning and
breezy conditions. Showers and isolated to locally scattered
thunderstorms are expected daily, generally favoring eastern Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands overnight into the morning, then
shifting westward each afternoon based on the latest model guidance.
The greatest risk will focus over northwestern Puerto Rico Friday
and Saturday, western Puerto Rico on Sunday, and southwestern Puerto
Rico by Monday. Faster storm motion over eastern areas may limit
rainfall totals, but slower moving convection in western sectors
could enhance flooding impacts. Breezy conditions will persist due
to the general wind flow and may be locally enhanced by thunderstorm
downdrafts. Soils may remain saturated, which could further increase
the risk of flooding, landslides, and rapid river rises. This
pattern will likely disrupt outdoor plans at times. Conditions
should gradually improve late Sunday into Monday, though some
uncertainty remains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 232 AM AST Tue Apr 14 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected across the local terminals
early in the period, deteriorating to MVFR at times due to
increasing SHRA and isolated TSRA, particularly across TJSJ, TJBQ,
and TJPS between 14/17Z and 14/23Z. Periods of lower ceilings and
reduced visibility are likely with the heaviest activity. Winds
will remain light and variable through around 14/15Z, then
increase from the E-SE at around 10 knots, with higher gusts
possible near showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM AST Tue Apr 14 2026

A broad surface high pressure across the central Atlantic and a
frontal boundary over the western Atlantic will promote light to
moderate trades through the rest of the weekend. Pulses of northerly
swell will continue to move through the Atlantic waters and
passages, where small craft should continue to exercise caution over
the next several days. The combination of the front and associated
pre-frontal trough will increase showers and thunderstorms across
the local waters, creating locally hazardous marine conditions
through at least mid-week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 232 AM AST Tue Apr 14 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue for most north-and
east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra,
and the U.S. Virgin Islands, where rip currents are possible and can
be life-threatening. A low risk will likely persist across western
and southern Puerto Rico. Increasing winds early to midweek could
lead to a return of more hazardous marine and coastal conditions.
Residents and visitors are encourage to exercise caution at the
beach, especially along the exposed coasts.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
329 AM AST Wed Apr 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 327 AM AST Wed Apr 15 2026

* A high risk of rip currents will persist along the northern coast
of Puerto Rico due to ongoing northerly swell activity,
resulting in hazardous marine and coastal conditions.

* Variable weather conditions are expected today, characterized
by periods of sunshine and passing morning showers, followed by
the development of afternoon convection across portions of the
islands driven by local and diurnal effects.

* Increasing instability from Thursday into Friday, associated
with an amplifying upper-level trough and enhanced moisture
availability, will promote a more active weather pattern with widespread
afternoon convective development across Puerto Rico.

* Southeasterly low-level winds will promote slightly above-
normal temperatures, particularly across coastal and urban
areas.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 327 AM AST Wed Apr 15 2026

A relatively tranquil weather pattern prevailed during the
overnight hours, with mostly clear skies as earlier upper-level
cloudiness and showers shifted eastward and remained over the
surrounding waters or moved out of the forecast area. As a result,
the islands experienced clear to partly cloudy conditions. Some
showers and isolated thunderstorms lingered across the
southeastern quadrant of the CWA, mainly affecting the Caribbean
waters, with the strongest activity observed around midnight.
Overnight temperatures ranged from the low to mid 70s across
coastal areas, with slightly cooler and more refreshing conditions
across the higher elevations. Winds remained light and variable
at around 5 mph or less.

An unstable and moist weather pattern is expected today across
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Atmospheric conditions
will support the development of showers and a few thunderstorms,
aided by abundant low-level moisture and the presence of a surface
trough across the region. In addition, a cut-off low aloft is
enhancing upper-level westerly winds (zonal flow), which may help
some storms become more organized and produce locally strong wind
gusts. At the low to mid levels (1000–700 mb), winds will range
from the southeast to the south due to the surface trough, with
its axis over Hispaniola, and a mid-level low positioned just west
of the forecast area. This wind pattern is favorable for the
development of showers across northeastern Puerto Rico, extending
into north-central areas. Given the mostly clear conditions early
in the day, local and diurnal effects are expected to develop
early, potentially leading to convection by mid-morning across
northeastern Puerto Rico, including areas near El Yunque. Showers
will mainly affect northeastern areas during the morning,
followed by activity developing over the northwestern portions and
drifting into northwestern to north-central areas, as suggested
by high-resolution models. Therefore, there is a moderate to high
confidence that the bulk of the showers will be between 12 PM to 6
PM across northwestern sections, where the heaviest showers can
result in flooding problems in urban areas especially.

For late tonight into Thursday, conditions will become slightly
more favorable for instability as an upper-level trough amplifies
just west of the region, placing the divergent side of the system
over much of the eastern portion of the CWA. This setup will
enhance upper-level diffluence and support increased upward
motion, leading to a more favorable environment for convective
development. This pattern is expected to persist through the rest
of the period, as another cut-off low establishes over Hispaniola
and stalls, maintaining a diffluent pattern across the area.
Considering this overall setup, a wetter pattern is likely from
Thursday into Friday. Global model guidance and high-resolution
models suggest active afternoons driven by local and diurnal
effects, supported by limited early cloud cover. For Thursday, an
increase in low-level winds is forecast, as indicated by 925 mb
wind speeds, resulting in faster-moving showers that may limit
rainfall accumulations. Additionally, precipitable water values
are expected to remain around the 75th percentile on both days,
supporting periods of rainfall.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 327 AM AST Wed Apr 15 2026

Variable conditions may persist through the weekend, with a gradual
improvement over the first part of the next workweek. Wind pattern
will mostly be dominated by a surface high pressure lingering over
the Central Atlantic, promoting winds from the E-SE. Another feature
that may influence the weather pattern in the deep-layered trough
that, according to the latest model guidance, is expected to linger
over Hispaniola. From the deterministic guidance of the GFS and
ECMWF, it seems that Saturday and Sunday will most likely be the
wettest days of the period, with PWAT values lingering between 1.8
and 2.0 inches, wet for this time of the year. Additionally, low to
mid level moisture content will remain high (above 60%), while model
sounding suggests skinny profiles. Conditions look favorable for
convection, as the influence of the trough will maintain slightly
cooler than normal mid level temperatures (around -8 degrees
Celsius) and a nearby jet with strong winds aloft (around 60 knots),
allowing cloud growth and ventilation. With the favorable side of
the trough over the CWA, divergence aloft will also increase the
chance of deeper convection, particularly over western Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Hence, for the U.S. Virgin Islands,
showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely move occasionally
throughout the day, while interior and western Puerto Rico can
expect showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon that may persist
into the evening. Due to previous rainfall activity, soil
saturation, and high river levels, the potential for flooding may
increase. Hence, the flooding threat will remain limited to elevated
for the aforementioned areas. Besides flooding, expect gusty winds
and lightning across these areas. For the rest of the areas, passing
showers may move from time to time, though a significant flooding
threat is not expected. Weather conditions will gradually improve
Monday onwards, as moisture content may decrease and the subsident
side of the trough moves over the CWA. Nevertheless, there’s
uncertainty between global solutions as GFS continues with a wet
pattern (above normal PWAT) while the ECMWF on the side is moving
toward a more seasonal to drier pattern. From the latest grand
ensemble, there’s variability between them (PWAT difference of half
an inch), particularly in the mid to high level moisture content. At
the moment, expect a seasonal weather pattern, with isolated showers
moving over windward sections in the morning hours, with afternoon
convection over interior and western Puerto Rico. Due to the
uncertainty, the flood threat will remain limited.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 327 AM AST Wed Apr 15 2026

SHRA with VCTS will persist near TISX, while VFR conditions
prevail across the remaining TAF sites during the morning hours.
Winds will remain light and variable at less than 5 kt, increasing
around 15/15Z from the S-SE at 10–15 kt. SHRA and isolated TSRA
are expected to impact TJBQ and TJSJ from 15/18Z onward, resulting
in reduced CIGS and VIS, with ceilings lowering to FL020–FL050.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 AM AST Wed Apr 15 2026

A surface high pressure system over the eastern to central Atlantic,
interacting with a stationary frontal boundary north of the region,
will promote light to gentle winds tonight. Pulses of northerly
swell spreading across the Atlantic waters will continue to maintain
seas up to 6 feet across exposed areas, where small craft should
exercise caution over the next several days. Showers and strong
thunderstorms will continue across the local waters due to the
presence of a frontal system and a trough, creating locally
hazardous marine conditions through this afternoon. Winds are
expected to become gentle to moderate from the east to east-
southeast today through the weekend.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 327 AM AST Wed Apr 15 2026

A High Rip Current Risk is in effect for the northern exposed
beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra through this afternoon due to the
arrival of pulses of a weak northerly swell. Beachgoers are urged to
heed the advice of lifeguards, as well as beach patrol flags and
posted signs. Elsewhere, a low to moderate risk of rip currents will
persists. Increasing winds from midweek onward could lead to a
moderate risk of rip currents persisting along north-exposed beaches
through at least next Saturday.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
300 AM AST Thu Apr 16 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 250 AM AST Thu Apr 16 2026

* A variable to unsettled weather conditions will continue
through Friday, promoting periods of showers and isolated
thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon hours, with a
localized flooding risk.

* A moderate risk of rip currents will persist across several
beaches, especially along northern and eastern exposures, and
beachgoers should exercise caution.

* Conditions are expected to improve by Saturday as drier air
and more stable weather return, leading to a more typical
seasonal pattern with limited shower activity.

* Overnight showers will remain possible across the U.S. Virgin
Islands due to passing trade wind moisture.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 250 AM AST Thu Apr 16 2026

A variable weather pattern prevailed during the night into the
early morning hours. Over the local waters, periods of showers
with strong thunderstorms affected the Caribbean and Atlantic
waters. Therefore, several marine weather statements and a Special
Marine Warning were issued during the night. Over land areas, some
showers developed across the southern coastal sections of Puerto
Rico, leaving between 1 and 1.5 inches of rainfall across
municipalities around Arroyo and Patillas. Around 2 AM, showers
diminished in that area and developed over the El Yunque region,
leaving around one inch of rainfall as well. Overnight
temperatures, as of 3 AM, were in the mid to upper 70s across
coastal areas and cooler across the mountains. Winds remained
light and from the southeast.

Today, the cut-off low clearly visible in satellite imagery will remain
northeast of the forecast area, while a deepening upper-level
trough persists, keeping the region under its divergent side to
the southeast. This setup, combined with a weak mid-level ridge,
will support cooler temperatures at 500 mb and promote some
instability across the area. From 0 to 3 km, winds will remain
similar to those observed yesterday, with a southeasterly
component at the surface (1000–850 mb) and a more southerly flow
at 700 mb, steering shower activity once again toward the
northwestern and northern sections of Puerto Rico. Therefore,
although widespread rainfall is not expected across the entire
island, afternoon convection will support periods of locally
strong showers with isolated thunderstorms, and gusty winds,
which may lead to urban and low-lying flooding where the heaviest
activity occurs. Temperatures will slightly increase during the
day due to the wind pattern and periods of reduced cloud cover,
with heat indices reaching around 100°F, especially across north-
central sections.

On Friday, as the upper-level trough amplifies further across the western
Atlantic, the forecast area will remain under its divergent side
to the southeast, allowing similar conditions to persist with
cooler temperatures at 500 mb and sufficiently favorable relative
humidity values between 850–500 mb to support shower development.
Model guidance suggests an increase in precipitable water, with
values ranging between 1.75 and 2.0 inches (around the 75th
percentile). Additionally, the Gálvez-Davison Index (GDI)
indicates the potential for isolated to scattered showers,
especially during the afternoon hours, along with a slight chance
of isolated thunderstorms over the surrounding waters. At the
surface, conditions will gradually shift as winds become more
easterly, with the induced surface trough moving farther west away
from the CWA and a surface high pressure system over the central
Atlantic dominating the local flow. Given these conditions, Friday
is expected to remain on the typical seasonal pattern, with
relatively quiet morning hours followed by a more active afternoon
characterized by showers across the Cordillera Central and the
western interior. As a result, an elevated flooding risk will
persist in these areas, as rainfall accumulations could enhance
the potential for urban and low-lying flooding.

Conditions will improve by Saturday, with the driest and most
stable day of the period. At the surface, precipitable water
values will decrease from around the 75th percentile to near the
50th percentile, remaining within a more typical seasonal pattern.
Additionally, at upper levels, the influence of the trough will
shift farther east, resulting in more stable and warmer conditions
at 500 mb. These factors will support mostly limited shower
activity during the morning hours, followed by localized afternoon
showers across the western sections of the islands. For the San
Juan metro area, afternoon conditions indicate around a 40% chance
of rain, which should still be generally suitable for the
Hurricane Hunter visit at Fernando Luis Ribas Dominicci Airport
in San Juan from 9 AM to 3 PM AST.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 250 AM AST Thu Apr 16 2026

The latest model guidance continues to suggest an influx of
relatively drier air as a surface high pressure system dominates the
central Atlantic and a mid-level ridge establishes west of the
region. During the first half of the period, precipitable water
(PWAT) values will drop to seasonal normals of 1.25 to 1.50 inches.
Under the influence of the surface high, light to moderate easterly
winds will prevail through mid-week, shifting from the southeast
late Wednesday as another building high pressure located over the
western Atlantic begins to migrate toward the central Atlantic.

Overall weather conditions are expected to remain seasonal. Passing
showers are likely over the windward portions of Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by afternoon convective activity
across the central mountain range and western Puerto Rico, driven by
daytime heating and local effects. Due to this anticipated activity,
showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely persist from the
early afternoon into the evening.

Because of previous rainfall, soil saturation, and elevated river
levels, the potential for flooding remains an active concern.
Additionally, temperatures at the 500 mb level are projected to drop
to -8°C, increasing instability aloft and enhancing the potential
for afternoon thunderstorms. Surface temperatures are expected to
trend within seasonal values throughout the forecast period.
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 250 AM AST Thu Apr 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites during the
period, with brief MVFR conditions possible at TJBQ from 16/18Z to
16/22Z. Winds will remain from the southeast at around 5 knots,
increasing after 16/15Z to near 15 knots across the area, with sea
breeze variations. Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms
will lower ceilings and reduce visibility, particularly across the
Cordillera Central and northern sections due to SHRA and TS
activity. Winds will decrease again after 17/00Z, becoming more
easterly at less that 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM AST Thu Apr 16 2026

A surface high pressure system over the eastern to central Atlantic,
interacting with surface trough north of the region, will promote
east-southeast light to moderate winds. A subsiding northerly swell
will continue to spread across the Atlantic waters, maintaining seas
from 5 to 6 feet across exposed areas, small craft should exercise
caution. Showers and thunderstorms associated to the trough will
continue across the local waters, creating locally hazardous marine
conditions through the weekend. Model guidance suggests another
long- period northerly swell that may arrive and spread across
local waters and passages by next week, resulting in choppy to
rough seas and becoming hazardous for small craft.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 250 AM AST Thu Apr 16 2026

No changes were introduced to the beach forecast. Beach
conditions have been improving as the northerly swell continues to
diminish across the local waters and passages. Nevertheless,
straitening winds will result in breaking waves between 4 and 5
feet across northern beaches of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and
Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Hence, a moderate risk will
continue for the next several days across the aforementioned
areas. Although there's no high risk, beachgoers should exercise
caution, as life- threatening rip currents remain possible along
beaches under moderate risk. A low risk risk will remain
elsewhere. Another long- period northerly swell may arrive and
spread across local waters and passages by next week.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
250 AM AST Fri Apr 17 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 250 AM AST Fri Apr 17 2026

* Another active afternoon is forecast today, with some instability
present and sufficient moisture across the area. Therefore, a
limited to elevated flooding risk is expected.

* More stable conditions are expected on Sunday, with drier air
and warmer Temperatures aloft limiting widespread shower
activity.Therefore, a typical trade wind pattern will prevail,
bringing passing morning showers to eastern Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by isolated afternoon convection
over western Puerto Rico.

* A moderate risk of rip currents will persist across several
beaches, particularly along exposed coastal areas, creating
hazardous conditions for swimmers.

* The U.S.Virgin Islands will experience variable weather conditions
today, with periods of passing showers, followed by gradual
improvement into Sunday and continuing into the upcoming
workweek.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM AST Fri Apr 17 2026

During the overnight hours, weather conditions were variable, with
showers mainly affecting the local waters and some moving across
southeastern sections of the island. As of 2 AM, showers were
brushing the coastal areas of Vieques and St. Croix, with minimal
rainfall accumulations reported. Winds prevailed from the east-
southeast at speeds of 10 mph or less. Temperatures during the
night ranged from the mid to upper 70s along coastal areas, while
cooler conditions were observed across the mountainous regions.

Today, as the upper-level trough amplifies over the western
Atlantic and shifts eastward away from the area, the forecast area
will remain under its divergent side to the southeast, supporting
favorable conditions for vertical development. This pattern is
reinforced by cooler temperatures aloft and relatively moist
conditions through the mid-levels, which will help sustain cloud
development and shower activity. Model guidance continues to
indicate above-normal moisture levels, with precipitable water
remaining elevated compared to climatology. Additionally, mid-
level instability suggests a moderately unstable environment,
allowing deeper convection, particularly during the peak of the
diurnal heating. At the same time, some variability in mid-level
moisture is expected, which may briefly limit coverage at times;
however, overall conditions remain conducive for scattered
showers. The presence of modest low-level flow will aid in
steering activity while maintaining convergence along local
effects and terrain features. Winds are gradually becoming more
easterly. Given these conditions, today will follow a seasonal
pattern, with passing showers across windward areas in the
morning, followed by a more active afternoon driven by diurnal
heating and local effects. Shower activity will concentrate across
the Cordillera Central and northwestern interior, where periods
of moderate to locally heavy rainfall are possible. As a result,
an elevated flooding risk will persist, particularly in urban,
low-lying, and poor drainage areas, where repeated showers could
lead to ponding of water and minor flooding.

By Saturday, a transition toward a drier and more stable pattern
will become more evident across the forecast area. Mid-level
moisture is expected to decrease compared to today, with relative
humidity values lowering across the 700–500 mb layer, while
subsidence associated with the shifting upper-level trough will
promote warming aloft and limit vertical development. Although
sufficient low-level moisture will remain to support passing
morning showers, particularly across eastern Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands, overall coverage should be reduced. During
the afternoon, localized convection may still develop across the
western interior of Puerto Rico; however, activity should remain
less organized and shorter-lived due to weaker instability and
reduced lapse rates. Winds will continue from the east to east-
southeast, supporting typical diurnal patterns. As a result,
flooding concerns should diminish compared to today, with only
isolated ponding possible in areas that receive brief, heavier
showers.

On Sunday, similar to Saturday, a stable weather pattern is
expected. Mid-level conditions will remain relatively drier
compared to previous days, with warming aloft promoting increased
stability and limiting vertical cloud development. Although
patches of low-level moisture will continue to move across the
area within the easterly wind flow, overall moisture availability
will remain closer to seasonal levels, reducing the potential for
widespread shower activity. At the surface, a strengthening high
pressure system over the central Atlantic will maintain a steady
easterly to east-southeasterly wind flow, supporting typical trade
wind conditions. This pattern will favor passing showers during
the overnight and morning hours across eastern Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by localized afternoon convection
across the interior and western sections of Puerto Rico driven
mainly by diurnal heating and local effects; however, activity
should remain limited in coverage and intensity due to the more
stable atmospheric profile. As a result, flooding concerns will
continue to decrease, with only isolated ponding possible in areas
that experience brief, heavier showers, and overall conditions
will resemble a typical seasonal pattern with reduced convective
activity across the region.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 250 AM AST Fri Apr 17 2026

he forecast remains on track with no significant changes from the
previous discussion. As the influence of the upper-level trough
weakens and exits the northeastern Caribbean, drier and more stable
conditions are expected to return. A mid-level ridge will build over
the area, bringing a stable air mass aloft. At the surface, a
dominant high pressure system over the central Atlantic will
maintain light to moderate easterly winds through mid-week. During
the first half of the period, precipitable water (PWAT) values will
drop to seasonal normals of approximately 1.50 inches and are
expected to remain within that range for the rest of the workweek.

Local conditions will stay seasonal, with occasional showers moving
into the eastern portions of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the
U.S. Virgin Islands during the morning hours. This will be followed
by afternoon convective activity across the interior and western
portions of Puerto Rico. This afternoon activity could result in
moderate to heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms due to the
combination of available moisture, daytime heating, and local
effects. Temperatures at 500 mb are expected to remain within
seasonal values of -6°C to -8°C; therefore, a thunderstorm or two
cannot be ruled out. Due to previous rainfall, soil saturation, and
elevated river levels, the potential for flooding persists.
Temperatures at 925 mb will remain seasonal through most of the
period, with highs in the low to mid-80s across coastal and urban
areas and the upper 70s to low 80s in the higher mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 250 AM AST Fri Apr 17 2026

Mainly VFR conditions prevail, with brief MVFR possible in SHRA
over eastern terminals. SHRA brushing TISX are resulting in lower
CIGs.SHRA and isolated TSRA developing during the afternoon over
the interior and western sections, including from 17/18Z to
17/23Z, will result in periods of MVFR conditions with reductions
in VIS. Winds will remain light and variable early, becoming east
to east-southeast at 8–12 knots after 17/14Z. Gusty winds are
possible near SHRA/TSRA and with sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM AST Fri Apr 17 2026

A mid-to upper-level trough will maintain an unstable weather
pattern across the regional waters, resulting in periods of strong t-
storms through at least Saturday. A surface high over the western to
central Atlantic will promote moderate to locally fresh east to
southeast winds, in turn resulting in moderate to choppy seas
through at least early next week. A small northeasterly swell will
also continue to propagate across the Atlantic waters and Caribbean
passages through early next week, contributing to hazardous marine
conditions at times. T-storms can produce locally higher winds,
frequent lightning, and reduced visibility.
&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 250 AM AST Fri Apr 17 2026

Up to a moderate risk of rip currents (life-threatening rip currents
are possible in the surf zone) will be in effect through the
weekend, especially along north and east facing beaches of Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A long period northerly swell may
arrive by the next midweek, potentially deteriorating coastal
conditions. Beachgoers should remain alert for afternoon showers and
isolated t-storms.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
244 AM AST Sat Apr 18 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 232 AM AST Sat Apr 18 2026

* A wet pattern will persist through much of the forecast period,
which, combined with local effects, will promote showers and
thunderstorms producing flooding rains across portions of PR
each day.

* Periods of showers also anticipated over the US Virgin Islands.

* Beachgoers can expect a moderate risk of rip currents along
north and east-facing beaches, Vieques, Culebra and the US
Virgin Islands.

* An improvement in the weather condtions is anticipated from
Tuesday onwards.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 232 AM AST Sat Apr 18 2026

A mid- to upper-level trough will persist across the region through
Monday, maintaining an unstable and wet pattern. Precipitable
water values remain near to above normal, generally between the
50th and 75th percentile, while sufficient mid-level moisture and
500 mb temperatures near or below -8 C will support convective
development and periods of locally heavy rainfall. The primary
concern continues to be flooding, lightning and rapid river rises.
Soils are saturated and rivers remain elevated; therefore, any
additional rainfall may quickly lead to urban and small stream
flooding, river rises, and isolated flash flooding, particularly
in areas that receive repeated rounds of rainfall.

This afternoon, convection is expected to develop across the interior
and western Puerto Rico. The Metropolitan area should see some
rainfall activity during the morning and afternoon hours from time
to time. On Sunday, a similar diurnal pattern is expected, with
afternoon convection across interior and western Puerto Rico
followed by additional showers overnight. By Monday, lingering
moisture and instability will continue to support shower activity,
although gradual improvement cannot be ruled out. Across the
USVI, rainfall coverage and intensity will remain more variable,
with lower confidence compared to Puerto Rico.

Residents and visitors should continue to monitor forecasts, as
flooding impacts may develop quickly where heavier showers
persist.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 232 AM AST Sat Apr 18 2026

The current forecast remains consistent with the previous
discussion, showing no significant changes. Drier and more stable
conditions are anticipated to return as the influence of the short
term period’s upper-level trough weakens and moves away from the
region. A stable air mass will be present aloft due to a building
mid-level ridge over the area. At the surface, a dominant high-
pressure system over the central Atlantic will maintain light to
moderate easterly winds through the middle of the week then becoming
northeasterly and southeasterly at the second half of the week.
Precipitable water (PWAT) values are expected to drop to normal
values with high end normal to above normal values at times.

Local weather will be seasonal with passing showers over windward
sectors during the morning and afternoon hours. This will be
followed by afternoon convective activity across the interior and W
PR on Tuesday with steering wind variations prompting afternoon
convection over SW PR on Wednesday and W-NW PR on Thursday and N PR
on Friday and Saturday. The combination of available moisture,
daytime heating, and local effects could lead to moderate to heavy
rainfall and isolated thunderstorms during these afternoons.
Temperatures at 500 mb are forecast to remain seasonal (-6 C to -
8 C), isolated thunderstorms are still possible, particularly to
end the period due to a nearby mid to upper trough. Given previous
rainfall, saturated soil, and elevated river levels, the
potential for flooding remains. Temperatures at 925 mb will also
stay seasonal throughout most of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 232 AM AST Sat Apr 18 2026

Mainly VFR conditions prevail across all TAF sites. Period of
VCTS/SHRA possible after 18/14Z across TJSJ, TJBQ, and TJPS.
Therefore brief periods of MVFR are possible across those
terminals. Prevailing winds should remain from east around 10 to
15 kts gusts around 22 knots after 18/14Z near SHRA/TSRA and with
sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM AST Sat Apr 18 2026

An unstable weather pattern across the regional waters will persist
through the weekend, resulting in periods of strong thunderstorms,
with the strongest activity expected offshore across the western
regional waters, including the Mona Passage and Atlantic waters,
each afternoon. Thunderstorms will produce locally higher winds,
frequent lightning, and reduced visibility. A surface high over the
Atlantic will promote mainly moderate easterly winds, occasionally
fresh at times, resulting in moderate to locally choppy seas through
the weekend. A small northeasterly swell will also continue to
propagate across the Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages through
early next week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 232 AM AST Sat Apr 18 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected to persist throughout
the weekend across northern exposed beaches. This may result in life-
threatening rip currents. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach
patrol flags, and posted signs.

Visitors should also remain mindful of the weather in addition to
surf hazards. An unsettled weather pattern will continue, with the
potential for heavy showers and thunderstorms producing locally
gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall, mainly during the afternoon
hours. If thunder is heard, seek shelter indoors immediately.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
149 AM AST Sun Apr 19 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 131 AM AST Sun Apr 19 2026

* Flooding risk will be highest this afternoon due to showers and
thunderstorms. Elevated risk will persists through today and
decreasing to limited from Monday onward.

* Thunderstorms will bring frequent lightning and gusty winds.
Saturated soils increase the risk of downed trees and power lines.
Small hail and brief funnel clouds or waterspouts are possible.

* Improving weather conditions across the US Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico from late today.

* Choppy, wind-driven seas will continue, with locally dangerous
conditions near thunderstorms. A moderate risk of rip currents
will persist along north facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 131 AM AST Sun Apr 19 2026

Overnight, most showers shifted over the surrounding waters, with
some activity filtering across the eastern half of Puerto Rico,
Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Rainfall
accumulations were generally light, and conditions remained
relatively calm. Winds were light and variable, with temperatures
in the 70s across urban and coastal areas and in the 60s across
the mountainous interior. A Flood Warning remains in effect for
the Culebrinas River due to previous rainfall, which has kept
river levels elevated and continues to impact nearby areas and
roadways.

For today, residual moisture will support passing showers at times
across eastern Puerto Rico during the morning hours, followed by
an increase in rainfall and thunderstorm development this
afternoon across the interior and western portions of the island.
The latest model guidance indicates above-normal precipitable
water values, mid-level moisture, and relatively cool 500 mb
temperatures favoring convective development. As a result, the
flooding risk will remain limited to elevated, particularly in
areas experiencing persistent or repeated rainfall. Despite this
activity, a gradual introduction of drier air is expected to begin
through the day.

From Monday into Tuesday, drier and more stable conditions are
expected as an upper-level trough shifts eastward and a mid-level
ridge builds from the west. A drier airmass filtering in from the
northeast will limit moisture depth, with most moisture confined
below around 700–800 mb. Even so, typical diurnal convection will
persist, with afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms
developing over interior and western Puerto Rico, along with
passing showers affecting eastern areas overnight and during the
morning hours. Flooding risk will decrease to limited, although
localized impacts will remain possible where heavier showers
develop.

Overall, the primary hazards will continue to include urban and
small stream flooding, rapid river rises, landslides, and
lightning. Soils remain saturated and rivers elevated, resulting
in a low threshold for flooding impacts. Persistent or repeated
showers and thunderstorms may quickly lead to localized flooding,
particularly in flood-prone and mountainous areas. Gusty winds
associated with thunderstorms could result in isolated downed
trees and power lines. While conditions gradually improve by
Monday, localized hazards will persist through Tuesday where
heavier rainfall occurs. Residents and visitors should remain
alert and continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 131 AM AST Sun Apr 19 2026

A shift towards relatively drier and more stable conditions is
forecast to start the long term period with seasonal Precipitable
Water (PWAT) values. PWAT values are forecast to generally stay at
normal, though periods of high-end normal to above-normal values are
possible as moisture is steered towards from the Caribbean to the
region. A series of surface highs and frontal lows will dominate the
local wind pattern, maintain light to moderate northeasterly, then
southeasterly, then southerly and then southwesterly winds during
the period. Local weather will be seasonal. Expect passing showers
over windward sectors during the morning and afternoon hours. The
focus of afternoon convective activity will vary in location each
day. On Wednesday and Thursday, interior to southwestern Puerto
Rico. On Friday and Saturday, interior to northern Puerto Rico. On
Sunday, north-central to northeastern Puerto Rico. The combination
of available moisture, daytime heating, and local effects could lead
to moderate to heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms during
these afternoon periods. Temperatures at the 500 mb level are
forecast to remain seasonal. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast
each afternoon, particularly toward the end of the period due to a
nearby mid-to-upper trough. Temperatures at 925 mb will also stay
seasonal throughout most of the period, although increasing to above
normal at times under the southerly flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 AM AST Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions across all TAF sites. Periods of brief MVFR with
VCTS/SHRA after 19/17Z across TJSJ and TJBQ. Prevailing winds
should remain from east around 10 to 15 kts gusts around 25 knots
after 19/14Z or near VCTS/SHRA and with sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 131 AM AST Sun Apr 19 2026

Periods of strong thunderstorms, particularly across the western
waters of Puerto Rico are expected during the afternoon hours. A
surface high pressure over the Atlantic will promote mainly
moderate to fresh easterly winds across the offshore Atlantic
waters and local Caribbean passages, resulting in moderate to
locally choppy seas through today. Small craft operators should
exercise caution. A small northeasterly swell will also continue
to propagate across the Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages
through early this week.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 131 AM AST Sun Apr 19 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected to persist throughout
the week across northern exposed beaches. This may result in
life- threatening rip currents. Heed the advice of lifeguards,
beach patrol flags, and posted signs.

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected to continue throughout
the week along northern exposed beaches. Although the risk is
moderate, rip currents can still become life-threatening. Always
follow the guidance of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and posted
warning signs.

Visitors should also stay alert to changing weather conditions in
addition to surf hazards. An unsettled weather pattern will persist
at least through today, with the potential for heavy showers and
thunderstorms capable of producing locally gusty winds and brief
heavy rainfall, especially during the afternoon hours. Remain
weather-aware, as conditions can change quickly, and be prepared to
seek shelter immediately if thunder is heard.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
211 AM AST Mon Apr 20 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 155 AM AST Mon Apr 20 2026

* Limited flooding risk each afternoon, driven by locally induced
convection.

* Isolated thunderstorms possible each afternoon, producing
lightning and brief gusty winds.

* Choppy, wind-driven seas, subsiding on Tuesday, then build again
Wednesday through Thursday with increasing seas and a northerly
swell.

* Moderate rip current risk most days, potentially increasing to
high by midweek along north and east-facing beaches.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 155 AM AST Mon Apr 20 2026

Overnight conditions were notably calm across Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands, with mostly clear skies prevailing. Winds
remained light and variable, similar to previous nights. Coastal
areas observed temperatures in the 70s, while interior locations
cooled into the 60s. Only a few brief passing showers were seen
over the surrounding waters, with little to no impact over land.
Overall, tranquil conditions dominated through the overnight
hours.

Looking ahead, a drier and more stable pattern will persist from
today through Wednesday, as a surface high pressure system over the
North Atlantic prevails, and promotes a generally easterly wind
flow. While some low-level moisture will remain in place, it will
become increasingly shallow, primarily confined below 700–800 mb.
Today will feature mostly fair weather conditions, with limited
shower activity and minimal impacts.

On Tuesday, winds will weaken and shift from easterly to
east-southeasterly during the morning, then trend northeasterly
by the afternoon through Wednesday. This evolving wind pattern
will help steer locally induced convection toward southwestern and
southern Puerto Rico. Despite the drier air mass, sufficient low-
level moisture combined with daytime heating will support
scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms, followed
by improving conditions in the evening. By Wednesday, similar
conditions are expected, with stable weather prevailing and only
limited afternoon convection.

Flooding risk will remain generally limited through the period,
though localized impacts cannot be ruled out. Brief heavy showers
may result in ponding of water on roadways and in poor drainage
areas, along with minor urban and small stream
flooding—particularly in locations where soils remain saturated
from recent rainfall. Some rivers are still running elevated and
could respond quickly to additional rainfall. Overall, impacts are
expected to be localized and primarily confined to the afternoon
hours.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 155 AM AST Mon Apr 20 2026

A seasonal weather pattern is expected to prevail at the start of
the long-term period, with precipitable water values near
climatological normals and typical trade wind showers moving across
the local waters and windward sectors during the overnight and
morning hours. Afternoon convective development will remain possible
across interior and western portions of Puerto Rico, aided by
daytime heating, local effects, and sea breeze convergence. While
widespread rainfall risk is not anticipated early in the period,
moderate rainfall may still cause localized ponding in urban and
poorly drained areas, especially where showers persist or repeatedly
affect the same locations.

By late Thursday into Friday, a gradual increase in available
moisture is expected as the remnants of a frontal boundary linger
north of the region while low-level winds become more southerly.
This evolving pattern will promote warmer temperatures and a more
humid air mass across the islands. As a result, shower coverage
should become more numerous, with the greatest afternoon activity
focused over interior and northern to northwestern Puerto Rico,
although passing showers will remain possible elsewhere. Localized
urban and small stream flooding will become more likely where
stronger showers develop.

From Saturday through Monday, southeasterly to southerly flow is
forecast to persist and continue transporting tropical moisture into
the northeastern Caribbean. Precipitable water values are expected
to rise to above normal levels, supporting a wetter and more
unstable pattern. Combined with 925 mb temperatures trending above
climatological normal, daytime temperatures will likely rise above
seasonal values, particularly across coastal and urban areas of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. This will result in a
gradual increase in heat risk by the end of the period, especially
in lower elevations.

In this pattern, periods of locally heavy rainfall and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon, particularly where
sea breeze convergence and local effects combine. Residents and
visitors should anticipate warmer and humid conditions, increased
potential for ponding of water on roadways, and localized flooding
in flood-prone areas through the latter part of the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 AM AST Mon Apr 20 2026

Most TAF sites should experience VFR conditions. Periods of brief
MVFR with VCTS/SHRA after 12/17Z across TJSJ, TJPS, and TJBQ.
Prevailing winds should remain from east around 10 to 15 kts gusts
around 25 knots after 20/14Z or near VCTS/SHRA and with sea
breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 155 AM AST Mon Apr 20 2026

A surface high positioned over the Atlantic is currently generating
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds, particularly affecting the
offshore Atlantic waters and the local Caribbean passages. This is
resulting in moderate to choppy sea conditions. Small Craft
Operators Should Exercise Caution in these aforementioned areas.
Sea states are anticipated to diminish slightly around Tuesday,
subsequently increasing to 6 to 7 feet from mid-week onward, owing
to a northerly swell propagating across the Atlantic waters. A
series of frontal lows and surface highs will result in winds
veering and backing during the week, with more ENE winds by
midweek and more ESE winds by the end of the workweek.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 155 AM AST Mon Apr 20 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents (life-threatening rip currents are
possible in the surf zone) will be present at the north and east
facing beaches of Puerto Rico as well as beaches of Vieques,
Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands to start the workweek.
Beachgoers should remain cautious due to these wind-driven seas. The
rip current risk is expected to decrease to low along the beaches of
the USVI and Vieques from Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday
as winds lighten. Even if the risk for rip currents is low, life-
threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of groins,
jetties, reefs, and piers. Up to a moderate risk of rip currents is
forecast through early Wednesday. However, the risk of rip currents
is anticipated to potentially increase to high (life-threatening rip
currents are likely in the surf zone) along the northern coastline
of Puerto Rico by late Wednesday and Thursday, driven by a northerly
swell spreading across the Atlantic waters. Additionally, be weather-
aware for afternoon thunderstorms and rapidly changing conditions.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
243 AM AST Tue Apr 21 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 AM AST Tue Apr 21 2026

* Mostly sunny skies will prevail across the islands. Fair
weather, with a few passing showers possible, are expected to
persist through the next couple of days.

* Drier weather is expected for much of Puerto Rico, but afternoon
showers will continue to develop along the interior and west each
afternoon.

* A moderate rip current risk is expected through midweek, mostly
for north and east Puerto Rico and for the Virgin Islands.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 233 AM AST Tue Apr 21 2026

Overnight, calm and mostly clear skies prevailed across Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands under a dry and stable air mass.
Winds remained light and variable, similar to previous nights.
Minimum temperatures stayed into the upper 60s to low 70s across
coastal areas, with cooler observations across higher terrains. No
significant weather impacts were observed overnight.

For today (Tuesday), a relatively drier and more stable pattern
will continue as a surface high pressure system over the North Atlantic.
Winds will gradually shift from easterly to east-southeasterly
during the morning, then trend northeasterly by the afternoon as
cold front over western Atlantic moves closer to the region.
Available moisture will remain shallow, mostly confined below
700–800 mb, limiting widespread rainfall potential. However, local
effects and daytime heating will still support scattered
afternoon showers, mainly across southwestern and southern Puerto
Rico. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. While rainfall
coverage will be limited compared to recent days, ponding of water
in poorly drained areas and minor urban or small stream flooding
remain possible, especially where soils are already saturated.
Temperatures will remain near seasonal normals, with highs in the
mid-80s along the coast and cooler conditions in the mountains.

Looking ahead to Wednesday and Thursday, trade winds will continue
to bring occasional patches of low-level moisture, leading to
isolated to scattered passing showers, particularly during the
overnight and early morning hours. Each afternoon, diurnal heating
and local effects may still trigger limited convection across the
interior and western sections of Puerto Rico. Winds will generally
remain light to moderate with a northeasterly component, and
temperatures will stay near normal through the period.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 233 AM AST Tue Apr 21 2026

A wetter and more unstable weather pattern is expected to prevail at
the start of the long-term period as remnants of a frontal boundary
linger near the region under southeasterly low-level flow. This
pattern will promote precipitable water values near or above
climatological normals. Afternoon convective development will remain
possible across interior and western/northwestern Puerto Rico, aided
by daytime heating, local effects, and sea breeze convergence. While
widespread rainfall is not anticipated on Friday, moderate rainfall
may still cause localized ponding of water in urban and poorly
drained areas, especially where showers persist or repeatedly affect
the same locations.

Through the weekend, low-level winds are forecast to veer more
southerly, allowing a deeper tropical moisture plume to spread
across the area while also advecting warmer temperatures into the
region. This evolving pattern will likely result in above-normal
daytime temperatures, particularly across coastal and urban areas of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. As a result, increased heat
risk is possible during the peak hours of the day, with heat indices
near or slightly above 100 degrees possible in some locations.
Residents and visitors should anticipate warmer and more humid
conditions through the weekend period.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage during the weekend will depend in
part on the availability of mid-level moisture, as the latest
guidance suggests some pockets of drier air aloft may intermittently
limit the overall extent of convection. Nevertheless, sea breeze
convergence, local effects, and stronger daytime heating may still
support isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms
each day, with the greatest activity focused over interior and
northern portions of Puerto Rico. Localized urban and small stream
flooding will remain possible where stronger showers develop, along
with brief gusty winds and frequent lightning.

By early next week, a gradual increase in columnar moisture in
combination with some troughiness aloft is expected to support
greater areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the
forecast area. This should result in more numerous showers from
Monday into Tuesday, with the greatest afternoon activity once again
focused over interior and western/northwestern portions of Puerto
Rico, while passing showers remain possible elsewhere. In this
pattern, periods of locally heavy rainfall and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible, increasing the potential for urban
flooding, quick river rises, and localized flooding in flood-prone
areas through the latter part of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 233 AM AST Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions across all TAF sites, as fair weather condt
prevails.Prevailing winds should remain from E-NE around 10 to 15
kts gusts around 25 knots after 21/11Z or near VCTS/SHRA and with
sea breeze variations. After 21/17Z winds will become E-NE.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 AM AST Tue Apr 21 2026

A high-pressure system over the north-central Atlantic will promote
gentle to moderate easterly winds, with seas in the 3 to 5 foot
range today. Winds and seas will slightly diminish tonight. A weak
frontal boundary north of the region, and a brief pulse of northerly
swell spreading across the Atlantic waters, will cause winds to back
from the northeast. As a result, seas will increase to 5 to 6 feet
from Wednesday night into Thursday. Small craft should exercise
caution in the offshore Atlantic waters and local passages during
this time. Winds will then veer to an east to southeast direction by
the end of the workweek, then becoming more southerly to end the
weekend.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 233 AM AST Tue Apr 21 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents (life-threatening rip currents are
possible in the surf zone) will be present at northwestern,
northern, northeastern, eastern and southeastern beaches of Puerto
Rico today, as well as at beaches of Vieques and St. Croix. As winds
become lighter this evening into Wednesday, the risk is expected to
generally decrease. However a moderate risk of rip currents will
likely persist at northern PR. Even if the risk of rip currents
is low in other areas, life-threatening rip currents often occur
in the vicinity of groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. Late
Wednesday night into Thursday, a brief pulse of northerly swell is
expected to spread across the Atlantic waters, and the risk is
anticipated to increase to moderate or high (life-threatening rip
currents are likely in the surf zone) along the northern coastline
of Puerto Rico, and to moderate along Culebra, St. Thomas, and
St. John. Up to a moderate risk is then expected to persist Friday
through the weekend.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
223 AM AST Wed Apr 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 212 AM AST Wed Apr 22 2026

* Today, expect fair weather with a few showers during the
afternoon across the interior and southwestern PR. Meanwhile,
the USVI can expect calm weather with a few showers embedded in
the winds.

* Beachgoers can expect a moderate risk of rip currents along
north- and east-facing beaches throughout the forecast period in
PR and the USVI. However, a long period northerly swell will
promote a moderate/high risk on Thursday as this swell moves
across the local Atlantic Waters.

* A wetter and more unstable weather pattern will set up over the
region as early as Thursday afternoon and more likely from
Friday into early next week.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 212 AM AST Wed Apr 22 2026

Compared to previous nights, overnight conditions were among the
calmest across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Mostly clear
skies allowed for slightly cooler minimum temperatures. Coastal
areas experienced lows in the lower to mid 70s, with some
unofficial stations dipping into the upper 60s. Interior and
mountainous areas experienced localized drops into the upper 50s,
though most remained in the 60s. Winds were light and variable,
with no significant hazards and minimal impacts under stable,
tranquil conditions.

For today (Wednesday), guidance supports and the forecast leans towards
a relatively dry and stable pattern. A weak surface high over the
central Atlantic will continue to maintain an east-northeasterly
wind flow across the islands. Overall, mostly fair weather is
expected, with isolated convection over interior and southwestern
Puerto Rico and downwind of the US Virgin Islands. Rainfall risk
will remain limited overall. Temperatures will reach the upper 80s
in lower elevations and urban areas, and in the 70s in higher
terrains.

A transition in weather conditions begins Thursday into Friday as a
frontal boundary approaches from the western Atlantic. At the
same time, a mid- to upper-level trough will amplify over the
western Caribbean, weakening the mid-level ridge and increases
instability. This pattern will bring more showers and
thunderstorms from late Thursday into Friday, with locally heavy
rainfall possible, especially in the afternoon and evening. Main
hazards include ponding on roads and reduced visibility at time
with the heaviest thunderstorms.

Overall, conditions will shift from stable and relatively dry to
more unsettled and moisture-rich by the end of the workweek, with
increasing impacts expected Thursday night into Friday. Therefore,
we urge visitors and citizens to monitor the forecast for changes
in the forecast regarding the increase of the flooding threats and
more.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 212 AM AST Wed Apr 22 2026

A surface high-pressure system positioned over the central Atlantic,
east of the Lesser Antilles, is expected to continue migrating
further eastward through early next week. As this system moves away,
winds will shift toward a more southerly flow, drawing tropical
moisture from the warm Caribbean waters into the region. At the same
time, lingering moisture from the remnants of a frontal boundary
will persist across the area through the upcoming weekend. This
atmospheric setup will drive daytime temperatures above normal,
particularly across coastal and urban areas of Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands. The combination of intense heat and abundant
moisture is expected to rise heat indices to 100°F or higher.

While the weekend may see variable conditions, as pockets of drier
mid-level air arriving intermittently could limit widespread rain,
the combination of daytime heating and sea breeze convergence will
still likely trigger isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
This activity will be most concentrated over the interior and
northern regions, bringing the risk of frequent lightning, gusty
winds, and localized urban flooding.

By Monday afternoon into Tuesday, a deeper plume of moisture is
expected to arrive. The environment will become increasingly
unstable due to the arrival of this moisture alongside an upper-
level trough, likely leading to more widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity than over the weekend. While passing showers
remain a threat for all the islands, the most active rainfall is
expected over the interior and the western to northwestern portions
of Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. Residents and visitors,
particularly those in flood-prone areas, are encouraged to monitor
weather conditions closely and remain aware of potential rapid river
rises and localized flooding through the midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 212 AM AST Wed Apr 22 2026

Mostly VFR cond across all TAF sites. As fair weather cond with
clear skies will prevail. Prevailing winds should remain from
E-NE around 5 to 13 kts gusts around 20 knots after 22/12Z or
near VCsh and with sea breeze variations after 22/17Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 212 AM AST Wed Apr 22 2026

A high-pressure system extending from the central to the eastern
Atlantic is interacting with a frontal boundary approaching from the
western Atlantic. Additionally, long-period swells will move
across the local Atlantic and Caribbean Passages. The first swell,
arriving from the northwest, is expected to arrive around this
evening, followed by a second, larger swell coming from the north
to northeast around Saturday.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 212 AM AST Wed Apr 22 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected to persist for most of
the period, except on Thursday, as a weak northerly swell reaches
the Atlantic waters. This will result in life-threatening rip
currents. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and
posted signs.

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected to continue into the
weekend along northern exposed beaches. Although the risk is
moderate, rip currents can still become life-threatening. Always
follow the guidance of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and posted
warning signs.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
255 AM AST Thu Apr 23 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 255 AM AST Thu Apr 23 2026

* Northerly swell pulses will bring a high risk of rip currents
today, especially along north-facing beaches. Risk lowers to
moderate thereafter.

* A limited flooding risk persists daily, becoming elevated this
weekend into early next week. Isolated thunderstorms possible
Saturday.

* Warmer-than-normal conditions develop this weekend, with heat
indices near or above 100°F.

* For the U.S. Virgin Islands, rip currents remain the main
hazard, with a high risk today decreasing to moderate, while
heat increases late in the period.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM AST Thu Apr 23 2026

A relatively tranquil overnight period prevailed, with mostly
clear skies and little to no shower activity over land. This
pattern will persist into the morning hours as a drier air mass
remains in place, with below-normal precipitable water values
early in the day. Some moisture will gradually increase across
western Puerto Rico, while drier conditions linger over eastern
areas, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Mid-level
dry air and a persistent inversion will limit vertical
development. Despite these somewhat hostile conditions, convection
is still expected, driven by daytime heating, with scattered to
locally numerous showers at times developing over the interior and
drifting toward nearby coastal areas during the afternoon.
Activity should remain brief and localized.

Moisture will continue to increase into the end of the workweek,
although it will remain mostly shallow in nature. Conditions will
stay fairly similar at first, and any convection that develops
will tend to drift north to northwestward on Friday with the
prevailing flow. By Saturday, a more southeasterly flow becomes
established, supporting warmer-than-normal conditions along with
stronger daytime heating. This evolving pattern will favor a more
active afternoon convection cycle, with showers developing over
the interior and shifting northward, with an isolated thunderstorm
possible.

The overall steering flow will remain weak through the period,
favoring slow-moving showers and localized flooding driven by
persistent rainfall over the same areas. This risk will remain
limited through Friday. By Saturday, increased moisture combined
with stronger heating and warmer-than-normal conditions will
support more efficient and heavier rainfall, leading to a slightly
elevated risk of excessive rainfall.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 255 AM AST Thu Apr 23 2026

No significant changes have been introduced to the long-term period,
and the inherited forecast remains on track. A surface high-pressure
system over the central Atlantic will begin to migrate toward the
eastern Atlantic on Sunday, promoting a southerly wind flow through
Monday. Winds will veer from the south-southeast as the surface high
strengthens over the central-eastern Atlantic. By Sunday, a mid-
level ridge will bring drier, stable air, inhibiting the development
of strong showers and keeping precipitable water (PWAT) values near
1.25 inches(below seasonal averages).

An increase in moisture is anticipated from Monday into Tuesday,
with PWAT values rising to between 1.50 and 1.80 inches as a deeper
plume of moisture from the Caribbean arrives. The environment will
become increasingly unstable due to this moisture influx alongside
an upper-level trough, leading to more widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. While passing showers are expected to move into the
islands, the most active rainfall is expected over the interior and
the western to northwestern portions of Puerto Rico during the
afternoon hours. Although 500 mb temperatures will remain within
seasonal values of -6 to -8°C, isolated thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out each afternoon.

As this southerly flow prevails into next week, 925 mb temperatures
will increase to well above climatological values. Surface highs are
expected to range from the upper 80s to low 90s along coastal and
urban areas, and from the low to mid-80s across higher elevations.
Heat indices will climb as well, likely surpassing 100°F from Sunday
into mid-week as the combination of southerly winds and abundant
moisture peaks during the daytime hours. To stay safe during this
period of high heat and humidity, residents and visitors are
strongly encouraged to prioritize hydration by drinking plenty of
water and avoiding prolonged exposure to the sun.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 255 AM AST Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR conds will prevail at all TAF sites thru the fcst pd, with
brief MVFR possible at JPS btw 23/16–22Z in VCSH. VCSH also
possible ovrngt at TISX. Winds will be lgt/vrb this mrng, bcmg ENE
8–12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt and sea breeze variations this
aftn, then returning to lgt/vrb ovrngt.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM AST Thu Apr 23 2026

A frontal boundary lingering just north of the region is
supporting light to gentle northeasterly winds, while pulses of a
long-period northerly swell continue to spread across the Atlantic
waters, resulting in hazardous seas for small craft, particularly
offshore. This swell will gradually subside late in the week. As
the boundary weakens, surface high pressure drifting southeastward
will promote a gradual strengthening of winds, becoming moderate
from the south over the weekend. Another northerly swell is
expected early next week. In addition, remnant moisture from the
frontal boundary may enhance shower activity over the waters, with
convection capable of producing locally hazardous conditions.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 255 AM AST Thu Apr 23 2026

A high risk of rip currents is present along north to north-
northeast facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the northern
U.S. Virgin Islands as pulses of a long-period northerly swell
spread across the local waters, where life-threatening rip
currents are likely. Conditions will gradually improve, with the
risk decreasing by Friday, transitioning to moderate risk across
exposed areas, where rip currents remain possible, while low risk
persists along Caribbean-facing beaches. Another northerly swell
this weekend into early next week will bring a renewed increase in
rip current risk.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
220 AM AST Fri Apr 24 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 215 AM AST Fri Apr 24 2026

* Pulses of northerly swell will continue into early next week, maintaining
a moderate rip current risk along north-facing beaches of
Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and
occasionally producing locally hazardous marine conditions.

* Flooding risk remains limited overall, with locally elevated risk
at times into early next week, mainly from slow-moving
afternoon convection across Puerto Rico.

* A warming trend will develop through the weekend into early next week,
with heat indices near or above 100°F possible, especially in
coastal and urban areas.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, moderate rip current risk will
persist, along with warmer conditions and periods of ponding of
water possible early next week.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 215 AM AST Fri Apr 24 2026

Tranquil conditions observed overnight will continue through the
morning hours, with mostly fair weather expected across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A weak and evolving pattern will
persist, influenced by a fading frontal boundary just north of the
region and lingering troughing across the northeastern Caribbean.
Low-level flow will remain mainly east to southeast today,
gradually veering and supporting the onset of a warming trend.
With light to gentle winds and weak steering flow, afternoon
convection is expected to develop over the interior of Puerto Rico
due to diurnal heating and sea-breeze convergence, then expand
toward surrounding coastal areas. Activity should remain mostly
shallow to moderate, although slow-moving showers could produce
locally higher rainfall totals. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out. A brief increase in winds is expected tonight into
early Saturday as the pressure gradient tightens slightly,
allowing for a few passing showers, mainly across windward areas.

Through the weekend, the boundary is forecast to transition into a
trough while lifting away from the region, with weak low pressure
development along this feature well to the northwest helping to
modify the regional flow. At the same time, a weak high over the
western Atlantic will drift southeastward and weaken, resulting in
a lighter pressure gradient and a more established southeasterly
to southerly wind pattern. Saturday should be somewhat drier
aloft, with subsidence and a persistent trade wind cap limiting
vertical development despite warmer conditions. By Sunday,
moisture is expected to increase and the inversion weakens,
allowing for greater cloudiness and more active afternoon
convection. Winds veering to the south to southwest may allow
activity to reach northern Puerto Rico, including the San Juan
metro area.

The primary hazard will be localized flooding from slow-moving
showers, mainly across interior and urban areas of Puerto Rico.
The risk remains limited today, decreases further on Saturday,
then increases slightly by Sunday as moisture deepens. Isolated
thunderstorms remain possible, and the warming trend will lead to
near to above normal temperatures by the end of the period.

&&

.Long Term(Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 215 AM AST Fri Apr 24 2026

A strengthening high-pressure system over the central Atlantic will
maintain a consistent south-southeasterly wind flow across the
region. Simultaneously, a deepening upper-level trough will create
unstable conditions aloft. This pattern will bring abundant moisture
from the Caribbean into the islands, significantly increasing the
potential for showers and thunderstorms.

A gradual increase in moisture is expected from Monday through
Wednesday, with precipitable water values reaching up to 2.25
inches; the bulk of this moisture is anticipated to arrive by
Tuesday afternoon. Consequently, shower activity is anticipated
during the morning hours across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern
Puerto Rico. By the afternoon, the combination of daytime heating,
local effects, and abundant moisture will likely trigger moderate to
heavy rainfall across the interior and western portions of Puerto
Rico. While temperatures at 500 mb will remain near seasonal
averages (between -7 to -8°C), there is sufficient atmospheric
dynamics to support thunderstorm activity.

As winds prevail from the south-southeast, temperatures at the 925
mb level will rise well above climatological norms from Monday
through the latter part of the week. Maximum surface temperatures
are expected to range from the upper 80s to low 90s in coastal and
urban areas, and the low to mid-80s in higher elevations. Due to
high humidity values and southerly flow, heat indices will likely
surpass 100°F daily. Residents and visitors are strongly encouraged
to prioritize hydration and limit prolonged sun exposure to stay
safe during this period of excessive heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 215 AM AST Fri Apr 24 2026

VFR conds will prevail at all TAF sites thru the fcst pd. Slow-
moving VCSH expected across all PR terminals btw 24/16–22Z, and
across USVI terminals from late mrng onward. Winds lgt/vrb, bcmg
sea breeze dominated with speeds around 8–10 kt during the aftn,
then returning to lgt/vrb ovrnght.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 AM AST Fri Apr 24 2026

A weak frontal boundary meandering just north of the region will
continue to weaken and transition into a trough while lifting
away, while a surface high over the southwestern Atlantic shifts
east into the central Atlantic. This pattern will maintain light
east to southeast winds today, followed by a brief increase and a
veering to a more southerly flow into early Saturday before easing
again through the weekend. Residual northerly swell will continue
to subside, with a small, long-period NNE swell expected to arrive
by Saturday into early next week with limited impacts. Overall,
marine conditions will gradually improve and remain below advisory
levels, although scattered showers may still produce locally
higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 215 AM AST Fri Apr 24 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents will persist through midweek
across the northern beaches of Puerto Rico, as well as Culebra,
Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. This means rip currents are
possible and can still be life-threatening, especially for
inexperienced swimmers. Conditions are expected to gradually
improve across the islands during the first half of next week as
the influence of long-period northerly swell diminishes.
Meanwhile, a low risk will continue along south-facing beaches.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
300 AM AST Sat Apr 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 300 AM AST Sat Apr 25 2026

* Moderate rip current risk will persist along north-facing and
exposed beaches, with locally hazardous marine conditions
possible at times.

* A warming trend continues, with heat indices near or above
100°F possible, especially in coastal and urban areas.

* Favorable weather conditions today through early Sunday, with
limited shower activity; conditions deteriorate late Sunday into
early next week with increasing flooding and lightning risks.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, passing showers increase tonight
into early next week along with warmer conditions; impacts
remain localized but may increase early next week.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sat Apr 25 2026

An evolving pattern will persist across the northeastern
Caribbean, influenced by a distant surface trough north of the
region and weak low-pressure perturbations across the western
Atlantic. In combination with high pressure over the central
Atlantic, this will support a predominantly southerly low-level
flow. Aloft, weak troughing lingers today before gradually
lifting. Overall, limited moisture depth will restrict vertical
development through much of the weekend.

Locally, a patch of deeper moisture moved across the area
overnight, supporting clusters of showers across southern Puerto
Rico and a persistent band extending northward from near St. Croix
across eastern Puerto Rico into the Atlantic waters. In its wake, a
drier-than-normal air mass will move in this morning, leading to
decreasing shower activity after sunrise. Afternoon convection
will develop over the interior, drifting north to northeast today,
then north on Sunday, remaining mostly shallow. By Monday,
increasing moisture will support deeper convection, favoring the
interior to north-northwest. Winds will be light to gentle from
the south with sea breeze variations, and temperatures will trend
above normal.

For today, no distinctive hazards are expected, but conditions
should still be monitored for changes. On Sunday, a limited
flooding risk and isolated thunderstorms are possible during the
afternoon, along with increasing heat. By Monday into Monday
night, a surge of deeper moisture will bring an elevated risk of
flooding and lightning, with more widespread and efficient
rainfall expected.

&&

.Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sat Apr 25 2026

The forecast remains on track as abundant moisture from the
Caribbean Sea streams into the region. This influx is driven by an
approaching mid-to-upper-level trough from the west and an induced
surface trough, both of which are significantly increasing local
instability. Meanwhile, a dominant surface high pressure across the
central Atlantic will maintain a light to variable south-
southeasterly wind flow through most of the period.

Under this pattern, there is an enhanced potential for strong
showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. Scattered showers are expected
across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico during the
morning, followed by vigorous afternoon convection across the
interior and northern Puerto Rico, including the San Juan metro
area. Recent analysis shows precipitable water (PWAT) values well
above climatological values, peaking near 2.25 inches. While
moisture levels will decrease slightly by Wednesday to between 1.75
and 2.00 inches, they remain unseasonably high. This unstable
environment will promote daily showers and isolated thunderstorms,
particularly during the afternoon hours over northern and interior
Puerto Rico, as the upper-level trough deepens over the northeastern
Caribbean. A gradual improvement in weather conditions is expected
by the end of the workweek as drier air begins to filter in.

Warm to hot conditions will persist throughout the week due to the
prevailing south-southeasterly flow. Temperatures at the 925 mb
level are forecast to remain well above normal through Friday.
Maximum surface temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low
90s in coastal and urban areas, and the low to mid-80s in higher
elevations. Due to the combination of high humidity and southerly
winds, heat indices will likely surpass 100°F daily. Residents and
visitors are strongly encouraged to prioritize hydration and limit
prolonged sun exposure to remain safe during this period of
excessive heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 300 AM AST Sat Apr 25 2026

VFR will prevail at all TAF sites. VCSH thru 25/13Z at
TJSJ/TJPS/USVI, brief CIG/VIS reductions possible (mainly TISX).
Aft 25/18–23Z, VCSH/-SHRA fm interior PR drifting N–NE, mainly
TJSJ vcnty, iso near TJBQ. MVFR brief/limited. Aft 25/23Z, VCSH
returns to USVI ovrnght. No sig ops impacts expected. Winds lgt
SE, bcmg VRB ovr PR, then inc to 5–12 kt aft 25/12–14Z w/ sea
breeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sat Apr 25 2026

A frontal boundary meandering north of the region will continue to
lift further away, while a weak surface high over the southwestern
Atlantic shifts east into the central Atlantic during the weekend.
This pattern will promote light to moderada southerly winds today,
before easing again through early next week. A small, long-period
NNE swell is expected to arrive today with additional pulses
expected early in the workweek with limited impacts. Overall, marine
conditions will gradually improve and remain below small craft
advisory criteria.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 300 AM AST Sat Apr 25 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents is expected to prevail across all
north-facing beaches of the islands through early next week. This
means that life-threatening rip currents are possible in the surf
zone. The risk of rip currents will remain low in the south-facing
beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A series of long-
period NNE swells will spread across the Atlantic waters and
passages through early next week. Although seas are expected to
remain around 4 feet or less, these long-period swells could still
increase the risk of life-threatening rip currents along the
Atlantic coastline of the islands.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
357 AM AST Sun Apr 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 400 AM AST Sun Apr 26 2026

* A moderate risk of rip currents will persist along north- and
east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Rip currents are possible and can be life-threatening.

* Showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase this afternoon,
with a more significant increase expected early in the week,
when flooding and lightning risks will rise.

* Above- normal temperatures will persist, with heat indices at
or above 100°F possible, especially in coastal and urban areas.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, heat risk will persist daily,
while showers and thunderstorms may increase early in the week,
leading to ponding of water on roads and lightning impacts,
depending on where activity develops.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 400 AM AST Sun Apr 26 2026

A relatively quiet pattern will persist through tonight, similar
to the recent pattern. Isolated to scattered showers will continue
to affect eastern Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and
surrounding waters as a lingering band of showers drifts northward
across the area. Elsewhere, activity will remain limited, with only
isolated development expected. Convection will remain mostly
shallow due to somewhat drier air aloft, despite sufficient low-
level moisture. Winds will remain light to gentle, occasionally
moderate in localized areas, from the east-southeast to south,
driven by high pressure over the Atlantic, with local sea breeze
variations.

A transition toward a wetter and more active pattern is expected
beginning Monday and continuing into Tuesday. Deeper moisture will
move into the region, supporting more frequent and better coverage
of showers and isolated thunderstorms. With light to gentle winds
in place, activity will move slowly, allowing showers and storms
to persist longer over affected areas.

As a result, the risk of flooding will increase from limited on
Monday to elevated by Tuesday, especially during the afternoon and
evening hours. Periods of heavy rainfall, lightning, and ponding
of water on roads will be possible, with localized flooding
impacts developing where showers persist. Additionally, a limited
heat risk will continue each day due to above-normal temperatures
combined with southeasterly flow and increasing moisture.

&&

.Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 400 AM AST Sun Apr 26 2026

Overall, a moist and unstable weather pattern will persist from
Wednesday through Friday across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Abundant Caribbean moisture, combined with a mid-to-upper-
level trough and an induced surface trough, will support unsettled
conditions through late week. A surface high pressure system over
the central Atlantic will maintain a light to moderate south-
southeasterly wind flow, promoting warm temperatures and high
humidity. A gradual drying trend is expected over the weekend,
allowing for a slight improvement in weather conditions.

From Wednesday through Friday, moisture levels will remain above
normal, with precipitable water (PWAT) values generally ranging
between 1.75 and 2.00 inches. This will support a pattern of daily
showers and isolated thunderstorms, with the most active convection
developing during the afternoon across the interior and northern
portions of Puerto Rico. Morning activity will favor southern and
eastern Puerto Rico as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands, followed by
afternoon convection affecting urban and metropolitan areas. By
Saturday into Sunday, slightly drier air will begin to filter into
the region. Although afternoon showers will still develop, overall
coverage and intensity should decrease compared to earlier in the
period.

Warm conditions will persist throughout the period due to the
prevailing south-southeasterly flow. Temperatures at the 925 mb
level will remain above normal for this time of the year through at
least Friday, gradually easing into the weekend. Maximum surface
temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s across coastal
and urban areas, and from the low to mid-80s in higher terrains.
Combined with high humidity, heat indices are expected to exceed
100°F daily, particularly through Friday.

Residents and visitors are encouraged to continue monitoring the
forecast, stay well hydrated, take frequent breaks from the heat,
and limit prolonged sun exposure, especially during peak afternoon
hours....

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 400 AM AST Sun Apr 26 2026

Mainly VFR expected. Light/variable to calm winds early, becoming
SE up to around 10 kt after 26/14Z. Between 26/17–23Z, SHRA/TSRA
may develop over interior/western PR and affect northern terminals
(TJSJ/TJBQ), causing brief MVFR. After 23Z, activity diminishes
with VCSH over eastern PR/USVI. Winds decrease again to
light/variable overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM AST Sun Apr 26 2026

The remnants of an old front north of the region will continue to
move further north as a surface low enters the northwestern Atlantic
today. Meanwhile, a surface high pressure over the central Atlantic
will continue to weaken, as the surface low strengthens during the
next few days. This pattern will promote light to moderate southerly
winds today, turning more ESE through midweek. Pulses of small, long-
period NNE swells will continue to spread across the Atlantic waters
and passages through next week. Seas will remain below small craft
advisory criteria for the next several days. A surface trough is
expected to increase shower and thunderstorm activity on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 400 AM AST Sun Apr 26 2026

A moderate risk of rip currents will prevail across the northern
beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through the end
of the workweek. Pulses of small, but long-period NNE swells will
reach the Atlantic beaches of the islands during the next few days.
These long-period swells can still produce areas of life-threatening
rip currents. Beach goers should exercise caution when entering the
northern beaches. The risk of rip currents will remain low in the
south-facing beaches of the islands.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
315 AM AST Mon Apr 27 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 304 AM AST Mon Apr 27 2026


* A gradual increase in moisture is expected today, enhancing the
potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through at least midweek, with
increased flooding and lightning risk.

* A warming trend is likely across the islands, particularly at
urban and coastal sites, with above-normal temperatures through
the weekend. Heat indices are expected to reach or exceed 100°F,
affecting the more vulnerable communities.

* A moderate risk of rip currents will persist along north-and
east-facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
as pulses of a small northeasterly continues to reach the region.
Rip currents are possible and can be life-threatening. Please
exercise caution along exposed beaches.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Wednesday)...
Issued at 304 AM AST Mon Apr 27 2026

A calm and quiet night prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, with only a few passing showers over the Atlantic
and Caribbean waters. Overnight temperatures remained slightly warm
across the region, ranging from the mid-70s to low 80s across urban
and coastal areas. In higher elevations, temperatures stayed in the
mid 60s to low 70s. Winds remained light and variable at 5 knots or
less.

Starting this morning, a gradual increase in low-level moisture is
expected to transition the region into a much wetter pattern through
at least midweek. Recent precipitable water analysis suggests above-
normal moisture arriving from the Caribbean Sea and northern South
America, with values reaching 2.0 to 2.2 inches through Wednesday.
As this deepening moisture interacts with a mid- to upper-level
trough lingering over the region, it will promote atmospheric
instability. At the surface, high pressure will maintain light south-
southeasterly winds.

This pattern will support frequent showers and isolated
thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon hours over the
interior and northern portions of Puerto Rico. Due to the light
winds, shower activity will move slowly and expand in coverage,
persisting over the region for longer durations. Consequently, the
risk of flooding will be elevated from today through midweek,
especially during the afternoon and evening. Periods of heavy
rainfall, lightning, and ponding on roadways are likely, with
localized flooding developing where rain persists.

Additionally, a limited heat risk continues each day due to the
combination of above-normal temperatures, southeasterly flow, and
increasing humidity. In areas where rain has yet to develop, a
warming trend is expected, driven by the southerly wind flow and
above-normal sea surface temperatures across the regional waters.

&&

.Long Term(Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 304 AM AST Mon Apr 27 2026

As mentioned in previous discussions, a moist and unstable weather
pattern will persist from Thursday through Friday across Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands, accompanied by light to moderate south-
southeasterly winds. This southerly flow will promote warm
temperatures and elevated humidity. Residents and visitors are
encouraged to monitor the forecast, stay well hydrated, take
frequent breaks from the heat, and limit prolonged sun exposure,
particularly during the warmest hours of the day.

From Thursday through Friday, moisture levels will remain above
normal for this time of year, supporting a pattern of daily showers
and isolated thunderstorms. The most active convection is expected
to develop during the afternoon across the interior and northern
portions of Puerto Rico, while morning activity will favor southern
and eastern Puerto Rico as well as the U.S. Virgin Islands. A
gradual drying trend will begin on Saturday, leading to improving
conditions through the weekend. The driest period is expected from
Sunday into Monday, when more stable conditions take hold across the
region. Although afternoon showers may still develop, their coverage
and intensity will decrease. By this time, any shower activity
should be brief and limited.

Warm conditions will persist throughout the period due to the
prevailing south-southeasterly flow. Temperatures at the 925 mb
level will remain above normal through Friday before gradually
easing over the weekend. Maximum surface temperatures will range
from the upper 80s to low 90s across coastal and urban areas, and
from the low to mid 80s in higher elevations. Combined with high
humidity, heat indices are expected to exceed 100 degrees Fahrenheit
daily, especially through Friday with slight moderation by late
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 304 AM AST Mon Apr 27 2026

Mainly VFR conds expected. Light/variable to calm winds early in the
morning, becoming SSE btw 8-10 kt after 27/14Z. Later in the
afternoon hours, SHRA/TSRA may develop over interior/western PR and
affect TJSJ/TJBQ btw 27/17-23Z, causing brief MVFR/IFR conds. VCSH
are possible over eastern PR/USVI after 27/23Z. Winds decrease again
to light/variable during the overnight hrs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 AM AST Mon Apr 27 2026

A surface high-pressure system over the central Atlantic will
continue to weaken, while a surface low strengthens over the
northwestern Atlantic over the next few days. This weakening
pressure gradient will promote light to gentle southeasterly winds
through at least midweek, becoming more easterly by the latter part
of the week. Pulses of small, long-period northeasterly swell will
continue to spread across the Atlantic waters and local passages
over the next few days. The likelihood of showers and thunderstorms
will also increase through at least midweek.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 304 AM AST Mon Apr 27 2026

Today, there is a moderate risk of rip currents along the north-
facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, St. Croix, St. Thomas, and
St. John, as a small northeast swell spreads across the Atlantic
waters, increasing the potential for life-threatening rip currents.
A moderate risk means that life-threatening rip currents are
possible in the surf zone. Beachgoers should exercise caution,
particularly in those exposed areas. This moderate risk is expected
to persist through most of the week, while beaches along the
southern coastlines remain at a low risk of rip currents.

Keep an eye out for quick changes in the weather conditions with
afternoon thunderstorms across portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, which could bring strong, gusty winds and lightning.
Seek shelter immediately if you hear thunder

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
325 AM AST Tue Apr 28 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 317 AM AST Tue Apr 28 2026

* Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across the
islands today, increasing the flooding and lightning risk,
resulting in urban and small stream flooding, particularly
across northern Puerto Rico in the afternoon.

* A moderate rip current risk continues over north and east-
facing beaches Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands for the
next several days. Beachgoers should exercise caution along
exposed beaches.

* Warmer-than-normal conditions will continue across urban and
coastal areas of the islands, with heat indices reaching or
exceeding 100°F, affecting the more vulnerable communities.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 317 AM AST Tue Apr 28 2026

Overall, relatively calm weather conditions prevailed across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands under partly to mostly cloudy
skies. Radar and satellite imagery captured a line of showers
developing just off the southern coast of Puerto Rico during the
early morning hours. While some of this activity reached the
coastline between Guanica and Ponce, rainfall accumulations
remained minimal. Meanwhile, additional lines of showers moved
across the Caribbean Sea, remaining mostly south of St. Croix
throughout the night, though a few brushed the island with little
to no accumulation. Overnight low temperatures ranged from the mid
to upper 70s across coastal and urban areas, while the central
mountain range saw cooler temperatures in the upper 60s to low
70s. Winds remained light and variable at 5 knots or less.

For the remainder of the morning, shower frequency is expected to
increase across portions of southern and eastern Puerto Rico, as
well as the U.S. Virgin Islands. This is due to abundant moisture
filtering into the region, which will facilitate further
development. Current precipitable water values indicate above-normal
moisture levels of approximately 2 inches, a trend expected to
persist through at least the end of the workweek. At the surface, a
high-pressure system will maintain a light southerly steering flow
through Wednesday. The flow is anticipated to shift from the east-
northeast on Wednesday morning before returning to the east-
southeast by the afternoon as the surface high migrates from the
central to the eastern Atlantic.

Throughout the rest of the period, afternoon convective activity is
likely to produce moderate to heavy rainfall and thunderstorms
across the interior and toward northern and northwestern Puerto
Rico. This activity will be driven by the combination of deep
moisture, daytime heating, and local effects. Because winds are
light, these showers will move slowly and expand in coverage,
persisting over the region for longer time. Therefore, the risk of
flooding will be elevated today, particularly during the afternoon
hours. Periods of heavy rainfall, lightning, and ponding on roadways
are likely, with localized flooding possible in areas where rain
persists.

Despite the anticipated rainfall, warm to hot temperatures will
continue across the islands. A limited heat risk is expected through
next week due to the combination of above-normal temperatures,
southeasterly flow, and increasing humidity.

&&

.Long Term(Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 317 AM AST Tue Apr 28 2026

By the end of the week, a moist and unstable weather pattern will
persist across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, accompanied
by a troughing pattern aloft, light to moderate southeasterly winds,
and above-normal moisture across the forecast area. Current guidance
suggests that precipitable water values will remain in the 75th
percentile for this time of year, around 1.80 to 2.00 inches. This
will continue to support a pattern of showers across windward areas
early in the day, followed by active afternoon convection across the
interior, northern, and northwestern portions of Puerto Rico. In
addition, 500 mb temperatures will remain between -7 and -8 degrees
C (near normal but sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm
development), particularly where the strongest activity develops
during the afternoon on Friday. Accordingly, a limited flood threat
will persist on Friday due to the high potential for ponding of
water on roads and in poorly drained areas.

From Saturday into early next week, a gradual drying trend is
anticipated, leading to improving weather conditions. Precipitable
water values will decrease to near-normal levels (around 1.5 inches
or less), while 250 mb heights increase and 500 mb temperatures warm
as ridging builds aloft, bringing greater atmospheric stability.
Although afternoon showers may still develop due to local effects,
their coverage and intensity will be reduced. Any shower activity
during this period should be brief and limited.

Lastly, warm conditions will persist throughout the period as
indicated by temperature guidance at 925 mb which suggests values
will remain above normal through at least next weekend. Also, an
east to southeasterly wind flow will prevail supporting those
conditions. Maximum surface temperatures will range from the upper
80s to low 90s across coastal and urban areas, and from the low to
mid 80s in higher elevations. Combined with high humidity, heat
indices are expected to exceed upper 90s to low 100s degrees F each
day. As a result, a limited heat threat will remain in place for
urban, coastal, and low-elevation areas. Residents and visitors are
encouraged to stay hydrated and avoid prolonged sun exposure during
peak heat hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 317 AM AST Tue Apr 28 2026

Mainly VFR conds expected at all TAF sites. Light/variable to
calm winds early in the morning, becoming SSE btw 8-12 kt after
28/14Z. SHRA/TSRA may develop over interior/western PR and affect
TJSJ/TJBQ btw 27/17-23Z, causing brief MVFR/IFR conds. VCSH are
possible over eastern PR/USVI terminals after 27/23Z.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM AST Tue Apr 28 2026

A surface high pressure system over the central Atlantic will
continue to weaken, while a surface low strengthens over the
northwestern Atlantic over the next few days. This weakening
pressure gradient will promote light to gentle southeasterly winds
through at least midweek, becoming more easterly by the latter part
of the week. A surface trough over east of Puerto Rico combined with
an upper-level trough will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the local waters today. Pulses of small, long- period
northeasterly swell will continue to spread across the Atlantic
waters and local passages for the next few days, though seas
should remain between 2 and 4 feet.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 317 AM AST Tue Apr 28 2026

Pulses of a small, long- period northeasterly swell will continue to
spread across local waters and passages, with conditions expected to
diminish by Thursday. Moderate risk of rip currents will prevail
along the northern and eastern beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands. Although the risk remains low to moderate,
beachgoers must exercise caution as life-threatening rip currents
are possible along beaches under moderate risk. In addition to rip
currents, beachgoers should remain weather alert as afternoon
showers and thunderstorms are expected near northern coastal areas
of Puerto Rico, resulting in heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
lightning.

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
314 AM AST Wed Apr 29 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 304 AM AST Wed Apr 29 2026

* An elevated flooding risk is expected today for portions of the
interior, northern and northwestern Puerto Rico as strong
afternoon showers and thunderstorms develops.

* A limited heat risk will continue for the next few days across
urban and coastal areas of the islands without prolonged rain
and cloud coverage.

* A gradual drying trend is anticipated by the weekend, leading
to improving weather conditions across the region.

* A moderate rip current risk continues over north and east-
facing beaches Puerto Rico and St. Croix. Beachgoers should
exercise caution along exposed beaches.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Friday)...
Issued at 304 AM AST Wed Apr 29 2026

Relatively calm conditions prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Doppler
radar and satellite imagery detected a few showers developing off
the southeastern coast of Puerto Rico, moving inland with minimal
rainfall accumulations, specifically across the coastal areas of
Humacao and Yabucoa. Overnight minimum temperatures ranged from the
mid-70s in coastal and urban areas to the low-to-mid 60s across the
mountains. Winds remained light and variable at 5 knots or less.

Today, abundant moisture will continue to filter into the region,
promoting another day of unsettled weather. Precipitable water
analysis (PWAT) indicates above-normal values reaching up to 2.0
inches. This moisture, combined with a weak east-southeast steering
flow, will favor the development of showers and thunderstorms during
the afternoon hours across the interior, western, and northern
sections of Puerto Rico, including the San Juan metropolitan area.
While the heaviest activity is expected to concentrate in these
regions, portions of southern Puerto Rico may also see development
as coverage expands and persists. Given the slow-moving nature of
the expected activity, the risk of flooding is elevated today. Heavy
rainfall, frequent lightning, gusty winds, rapid river rises, and
minor urban flooding are likely in areas where rain persists.

Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, passing showers embedded in the wind
flow are expected to move through during the morning hours,
resulting in minimal impacts across the local islands.

A gradual drying trend is expected to begin Thursday and continue
into Friday as moisture levels decrease and a mid-level ridge builds
over the area. Nonetheless, sufficient moisture, daytime heating,
and local effects could still trigger afternoon showers and isolated
thunderstorms across portions of the interior, west and northwestern
Puerto Rico, potentially leading to localized flooding. Warm to hot
temperatures will persist throughout the week, particularly across
the urban and coastal areas of the islands.

&&

.Long Term(Saturday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 304 AM AST Wed Apr 29 2026

To start the weekend, current guidance has been variable and still
indicates above-normal precipitable water content, around 1.8 to 2
inches, and 500 mb temperatures near -7 degrees C. A high-pressure
system will be positioned over the central Atlantic, leading to a
northeasterly flow at around 10 to 15 mph. The trough pattern aloft
will be exiting the area, allowing for more stability and higher
heights; however, expect wind-driven showers early across eastern
Puerto Rico, followed by afternoon convection across the
northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico, with the possibility of a few
lightning strikes. Accordingly, a limited flood threat will persist
on Saturday over northwestern Puerto Rico due to the high potential
for ponding of water on roads and in poorly drained areas. By
Sunday, expect a similar pattern with localized showers during the
afternoon, particularly over northwestern Puerto Rico.

Transitioning into early next week, a gradual drying trend is
anticipated, leading to improving weather conditions. The driest
period currently looks to be Monday through Wednesday. Precipitable
water values will decrease to near-normal levels or even below
normal, while 250 mb heights will further increase and 500 mb
temperatures will warm as ridging builds aloft, bringing greater
atmospheric stability. Although afternoon showers may still develop
due to local effects, their coverage and intensity will be reduced.
Any shower activity during this period should be brief and limited.

Even though there will likely be a break from the rain, the main
concern during this period will be persistent warm conditions, as
indicated by temperature guidance at 925 mb and a prevailing east to
southeasterly wind flow, suggesting values will remain above normal
through the forecast period. Maximum surface temperatures will range
from the upper 80s to the low 90s across coastal and urban areas,
and from the low to mid-80s in higher elevations. Heat indices will
likely reach the upper 90s to the low 100s degrees F each day. As a
result, a limited heat threat will remain in place for urban,
coastal, and low-elevation areas. Residents and visitors are
encouraged to stay hydrated and avoid prolonged sun exposure during
peak heat hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 304 AM AST Wed Apr 29 2026

Mainly VFR conds expected at all TAF sites. However, unstable
weather conditions will produce SHRA/TSRA during the afternoon hours
resulting in brief MVFR/IFR conds at TJSJ/TJPS/TJBQ aft 29/17Z.
Light/variable to calm winds early in the morning, becoming ESE btw
8-12 kt after 29/14Z. Winds will turn light/variable aft 29/2223Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 AM AST Wed Apr 29 2026

A series of frontal lows over the western to central Atlantic and a
high over the central Atlantic will prevail over the next few days.
This will result in a weaker pressure gradient that will promote
variable, light to gentle southeasterly winds, becoming east-
southeasterly again on Thursday and east to east southeasterly on
Friday. Moisture over the region and a nearby trough will continue
to result in showers and isolated t-storms over the next few days.
Pulses of small, long- period northeasterly swell will continue to
spread across the Atlantic waters and local passages for the next
few days, though seas should remain between 2 to 4 feet.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 304 AM AST Wed Apr 29 2026

The moderate risk should prevail over the region as pulses of a
small, long period northeasterly swell spreads across the local
waters and passages. The northern coastline of Puerto Rico, Culebra
and St. Croix will continue to be affected, meaning that life-
threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone. A low risk
of rip currents will continue over other areas, however, life-
threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of groins,
jetties, reefs, and piers. Beachgoers should also continue to
monitor the forecast for showers and afternoon t-storms in the area,
especially near northern coastal areas of Puerto Rico, resulting in
heavy rain, lighting and gusty winds.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
337 AM AST Thu Apr 30 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 330 AM AST Thu Apr 30 2026

* An elevated flooding risk is expected today for portions of the
interior, northern and northwestern Puerto Rico as strong
showers and thunderstorms develop during the afternoon hours.
Soils are already saturated from previous rains and elevated
river levels may worsen impacts in vulnerable areas.

* Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, mainly fair weather conditions
will prevail with few passing showers moving into the area from
time to time.

* A gradual transition into drier and stable conditions is
expected to from late Friday onward, as a high-pressure system
strengthens to the north and a mid-level ridge builds over the
region.

* Warmer-than-normal temperatures will continue through the
weekend, with heat indices reaching or exceeding 100F across
urban and coastal areas.

* A moderate rip current risk will continue for north- and east-
facing beaches of the islands. Beachgoers should exercise caution
along exposed beaches.

&&

.Short Term(Today through Saturday)...
Issued at 330 AM AST Thu Apr 30 2026

Calm conditions prevailed across the islands overnight; however,
Doppler radar and satellite imagery detected persistent shower bands
over the offshore Atlantic waters and the Mona Channel, northwest of
Aguadilla. While some of these showers brushed the coastline, the
rest of the region experienced mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.
Overnight minimum temperatures ranged from the mid-70s in coastal
and urban areas to the low-to-mid 60s across the mountains, with
light and variable winds remaining at 5 knots or less.

Another day of wet and unsettled weather is expected as abundant
moisture, with precipitable water (PWAT) values up to 2.25 inches,
moves over the islands. With winds remaining light and variable,
conditions are favorable for another round of afternoon convective
activity across central, northern, and western Puerto Rico,
including the San Juan metropolitan area. Moderate to heavy rainfall
and thunderstorms are likely across these areas, fueled by daytime
heating, local effects, and instability aloft.

Given the slow-moving nature of these storms, the risk of flooding
will remain elevated through Friday. Heavy rainfall, frequent
lightning, and gusty winds are expected, which may lead to rapid
river rises and minor urban flooding. Because soils are already
saturated from previous rainfall, landslides cannot be ruled out,
particularly across the central municipalities of Puerto Rico.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Virgin Islands will likely see only passing
morning showers with minimal impacts.

A gradual transition toward drier, more stable conditions is
anticipated late Friday into Saturday as a high-pressure system
strengthens to the north and a mid-level ridge builds over the
region. Warm to hot temperatures will persist throughout the
weekend, especially across coastal and urban areas, where heat
indices are forecast to reach or exceed 100°F each day.

&&

.Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)...
Issued at 330 AM AST Thu Apr 30 2026

The long-term period will be dominated by generally tranquil, near-
seasonal conditions for both Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will
promote east to southeast winds at 8 to 15 mph through the period.
Aloft, a ridging pattern will persist, supporting stable conditions.
On Sunday, patches of moisture will maintain precipitable water
(PWAT) values near seasonal levels, around 1.5 inches. This will
support brief, passing showers across windward areas during the
morning, followed by scattered afternoon showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico. Flood
risk will remain low and localized.

A drying trend will develop early next week, leading to improving
conditions. Model guidance indicates PWAT values falling into the
25th percentile. In perspective, PWAT values are expected to be
around 1.25 inches or less. Combined with a mid to upper-level
ridge, this will enhance stability. The driest period is expected
from Monday through Wednesday. Afternoon showers may still develop
due to local effects and diurnal heating, but coverage will be
limited and activity brief. Rain chances will range from 10 to 30
percent each afternoon across northwestern Puerto Rico. By Thursday,
moisture will increase back to near-normal levels as patches of
moisture arrive. At the same time, an upper-level trough will begin
to amplify into the region, increasing instability and the potential
for shower development.

Despite reduced rainfall, the main hazard will be the warm
conditions that will likely persist across the islands. Temperature
guidance at 925 mb, along with a prevailing east to southeasterly
wind flow, suggests values will remain above normal throughout the
forecast period. Daytime highs will range from the upper 80s to low
90s in coastal and urban areas, and from the upper 70s to mid-80s in
higher elevations. Heat indices will reach the upper 90s to low 100s
degrees F daily. A limited heat threat will persist for urban,
coastal, and low-elevation areas. Residents and visitors should stay
hydrated and limit prolonged sun exposure during peak heating
hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 330 AM AST Thu Apr 30 2026

Mainly VFR conds will likely continue across most TAF sites. Wet and
unstable conditions will persist today, bringing rounds of SHRA/TSRA
during the aftn hours. This activity will result in brief MVFR/IFR
conds with VCTS for TJSJ/TJPS/TJBQ thru 30/23Z. Light/variable winds
early in the morning, becoming E-SE btw 8-12 kt after 30/14Z. Winds
will turn light/variable by 30/23Z thru 01/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM AST Thu Apr 30 2026

A series of highs and frontal lows over the western to central
Atlantic will prevail over the next few days. Winds will become more
east- southeasterly today and east to east southeasterly on Friday.
Moisture over the region and a nearby trough will continue to result
in showers and isolated t-storms over the next few days,
particularly during the afternoon hours. Pulses of small, long-
period northerly swell will continue to spread across the Atlantic
waters and local passages through this evening, though seas should
remain between 2 to 4 feet. Periods of another weak but long-period
northerly swell will reach the Atlantic waters by early Saturday.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Issued at 330 AM AST Thu Apr 30 2026

The moderate risk of rip currents will continue for north- and east-
facing beaches of the Puerto Rico due to pulses of a small, long-
period northeasterly swell. Intermittent periods of moderate to low
risk of rip current for the rest of the islands. Life-threatening
rip currents remain possible in the surf zone. A low risk of rip
currents will persist elsewhere, though isolated stronger currents
may develop near piers, jetties, reefs, and channels. Beachgoers
should exercise caution and monitor the weather, as showers and
thunderstorms may affect coastal areas at times through Friday.