Severe Weather Alert - SE Texas/SW & South Central La.

[southerngale]

Severe Weather Alert for Beaumont, TX

Special Weather Statement - SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY VALID FROM FRI JAN 23 2004 02:59 PM CST UNTIL SAT JAN 24 2004 04:00 AM CST.

ACADIA-ALLEN-ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO CAMERON 20 NM OUT- ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO CAMERON 20 TO 60 NM OUT-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD- CALCASIEU-CAMERON-CAMERON TO HIGH ISLAND 20 NM OUT- CAMERON TO HIGH ISLAND 20 TO 60 NM OUT-EVANGELINE-HARDIN-IBERIA- JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-LAFAYETTE-LOWER ST MARTIN-NEWTON- ORANGE-RAPIDES-ST LANDRY-ST MARY-TYLER-UPPER ST MARTIN-VERMILION- VERNON- 259 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2004 ...AREAWIDE RAINS AND SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST TEXAS... SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA TOMORROW AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO EASTERN TEXAS A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER SUNSET...AND WILL EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SQUALL LINE. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET STREAM WILL BE OVER THE AREA... THEREFORE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WILL KEEP RIVERS ALREADY IN FLOOD...AND MOST LIKELY ADD A FEW OTHER LOCATIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE STORM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

[southerngale]

Also...an excerpt from:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
214 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2004

WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME ISOLD RAIN IN THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK
TOMORROW DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE. THE BAJA
LOW WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY MIDDAY AND WILL QUICKLY
MOVE INTO WESTERN TEXAS AS A TROUGH BY LATE AFTN. AS IT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA...A STRONG LLJ WILL SET UP OVER E TX/W LA (50+
KNOTS AT 2KFT ACCORDING TO FCST SOUNDINGS) WHICH WILL HELP TO PUMP
EVEN MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. BY LATE AFTN WE SHOULD SEE A LINE
OF SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP IN EASTERN TEXAS AND MAKE IT INTO OUR WESTERN
ZONES BY EARLY EVENING. WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.5 IN...GOOD SHEAR
DUE TO LLJ...AND GREAT MID-LVL SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH...WE HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE OF GETTING NOT ONLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1.5 TO 2
INCH RANGE (PER LATEST QPFPFD) BUT ALSO SOME DAMAGING WINDS...AND
POSSIBLY SOME HAIL (ALTHOUGH THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A THREAT FOR
OUR WESTERN AREAS AND BACK INTO EAST-CENTRAL TX). CAPES ARE NOT ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE (ONLY AROUND 200-300J/KG)...BUT LCL'S ARE LOW AND
SHEAR IS HIGH...SO THIS SUPPORTS THE SVR WX THREAT TOMORROW NIGHT.

[Suzi Q]

Lucky (or unlucky) you, depending on what you like. Seems like I am completely out of the loop on this round and with Mr. Marva being home tomorrow, not much likelihood I can get out and chase.....Dang, I can't get snow, I can't get storms.........

[Guest]

Can you get anything Marva???

[Suzi Q]

Yes I can but I can't discuss that on here.....perhaps I could direct your inquiry to another party????????

Man, I is SO VERY BAD!

[Guest]

ROFL...and now back to the weather....

[Josephine96]

LOL Ahem.. Back to the weather please lol

[Suzi Q]

Here we go friends, might be an interesting day after all:

From SPC this AM
BROAD AREA OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR AS UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND MEXICAN PLATEAU. THOUGH MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST A PRONOUNCED DRYING AT MID-LEVELS...COOLING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAPE. STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG/NORTH OF MID-LEVEL JET AXIS FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY INITIATE AS BOUNDARY LAYER-BASED SUPERCELLS IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHERE WEAK HEATING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY EVOLVE...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS IN MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

Alright my fellow nuthead chasers-READY, SET, GO!!!!!!!

[Anonymous]

Looks like the first watch of 2004 will be issued soon!

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0026
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 242155Z - 250030Z

PORTIONS OF S CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. IF CONVECTIVE AND
MESOSCALE TRENDS BEGIN TO SUGGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WAS RETURNING NWD
THROUGH TX. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO THE LOW 60S OVER S AND
SERN TX WITH UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS FARTHER INLAND THROUGH CNTRL TX.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT HAVE LIMITED MUCAPE
TO AOB 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY SHOWS TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. ONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ENEWD THROUGH CNTRL TX AND ANOTHER
INTO SWRN TX. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS STEEPER
LAPSE RATES AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INTERCEPTS HIGHER MOISTURE SPREADING NWD FROM S TX. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND OF ASCENT CONTINUES TO SPREAD ENEWD
THROUGH S CNTRL TX. ONE STORM NEAR COTULLA CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
ORGANIZATION WITH A BOWING STRUCTURE. A STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL
ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN TX...AND THIS
WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES.

[Suzi Q]

Truck is gassed up, still haven't finished my homework!!!!!! Figures this happens!!!! Really got a good breeze going here, temp keeps going up, sitting at 75.6 now. Looks like fun. Thanks for the map post.

[southerngale]

Wow Suzi Q...only 67° here. Kinda windy here as well.