First the spc day 2 outlook...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SE TX AND
EXTREME SW LA....
...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE WRN STATES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WITHIN THE SRN STREAM...A CLOSED LOW NOW OVER SRN CA WILL
EJECT ENEWD AS AN OPEN WAVE AND WEAKEN IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY...WHILE AN UPSTREAM TROUGH NEAR 40 N AND 143 W
DIGS SEWD AND BEGINS TO EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER CLOSED LOW INVOF SRN
CA/NRN BAJA NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...A CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIR MASS WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND IN THE
WAKE OF A NRN STREAM TROUGH NOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN TWO AREAS - SRN CA/SW AZ WITH THE DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW...AND TX/OK EWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
...TX/OK EWD TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
THE REMNANTS OF THE CLOSED LOW NOW OVER SRN CA WILL EJECT ENEWD FROM
TX/OK TO THE MS VALLEY. THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME...
EXPECT LOW-LEVEL WAA TO SPREAD EWD FROM NRN/ERN TX AND OK DURING THE
DAY TO AR/LA/MS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS OVER THE GULF BASIN
IS STILL RECOVERING FROM A PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED INTO THE MID 60S. ADDITIONAL
MODIFICATION AND ADVECTION FROM WARMER OCEAN AREAS TO THE S AND E IS
LIKELY THE NEXT TWO DAYS TO THE S OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW
GULF. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL AND THEN RETURN NWD AS A WARM
FRONT TO THE TX/LA COASTS SUNDAY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS N/NW TX AND SRN OK AND
THEN SPREAD EWD AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER E TX DURING THE
AFTERNOON...REACHING AR/MS OVERNIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /NEAR 7 C/KM/...
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT MAY
SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING GUSTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE TX/EXTREME SW LA. THE
SOMEWHAT GREATER THREAT SHOULD BE IN PROXIMITY TO THE RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM S CENTRAL TX EWD TO THE UPPER TX/SW LA
COASTS...WITH A LESSER THREAT FOR HAIL WITH ELEVATED STORMS FARTHER
N. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY
THAT A SHALLOW STABLE LAYER MAY PERSIST OVER LAND ACROSS SE TX/SW LA
WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE GREATER THAN AREAS FARTHER W.
And this event has made the CPC hazards assesments....
[/quote]A vigorous low-latitude storm is likely to produce severe weather and localized flooding from the Gulf Coast States to southern Georgia and FLorida Feb 23-24. ...
For Monday Feb 23 - Wednesday Feb 25, 2004: A series of vigorous Pacific storms is expected to bring periods of heavy rains with risk of floods and mudslides to southern California and possibly as far inland as Arizona. The stronger of these systems will redevelop east of the Rockies and produce additional heavy rains and risk of severe weather across the Gulf Coast Region to southern Georgia and Florida.
Also from CPC....
For Thursday Feb 26 - Friday Mar 5, 2004: Additional storms coming in from the Pacific will drop southeastward across central and southern Califonria and most of the action will continue to be across the southern part of the U.S. Further episodes of heavy rain may bring urban and small stream flooding and mudslides to much of California, possibly extending inland to the southern half Arizona. One or more of these short waves may maintain enough intensity after crossing the Rockies to trigger severe weather and more localized flooding across the Gulf Coast States as far east as Florida and the Carolinas. However, timing and location are still somewhat uncertain this far ahead.
my Cowboys