Classic "spring" storm possibly for the weekend...

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Classic "spring" storm possibly for the weekend...

#1 Postby Guest » Fri Feb 27, 2004 11:18 am

Snow to the northwest, with t-storms, possibly severe, to the southeast. What does everyone else think?

Here are some HWOs from Friday morning:

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IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-280000-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
536 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...
EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ICE JAMS MAY DEVELOP AND CAUSE LOWLAND FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
PLATTE...ELKHORN...AND LOUP RIVERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ICE
BREAKUP IS A RESULT OF THE RECENT PERIOD OF VERY MILD TEMPERATURES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ICE JAMS...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE RAIN WILL THEN CHANGE TO SNOW
BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MINOR FLOODING MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED AREAS IF THE HEAVY RAIN
MATERIALIZES AS EXPECTED. ALSO...IT APPEARS THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS STORM COULD STILL CHANGE...THUS
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER FORECAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WITH ANY
REPORTS OF ICE JAMMING OR ICE JAM FLOODING.

$$

DEWALD


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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
415 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2004

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-281200-
ADAMS-BUFFALO-CLAY-DAWSON-FILLMORE-FRANKLIN-FURNAS-GOSPER-GREELEY-
HALL-HAMILTON-HARLAN-HOWARD-JEWELL-KEARNEY-MERRICK-MITCHELL-NANCE-
NUCKOLLS-OSBORNE-PHELPS-PHILLIPS-POLK-ROOKS-SHERMAN-SMITH-THAYER-
VALLEY-WEBSTER-YORK-
415 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY THROUGHOUT THE REGION. EVEN
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS. RAIN
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. SNOWFALL WILL END FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...EXITING CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE TRACK
AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...
HOWEVER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION BY
NOON ON MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALSO POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY.

A FEW RIVER CHANNELS IN THE AREA...PARTICULARLY THOSE
STILL CHOKED WITH SOME ICE FLOW...MAY EXPERIENCE ENOUGH INCREASE IN
WATER FLOW FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM TO CAUSE SOME MINOR OVERFLOWS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

IF STORM SPOTTERS NOTICE ANY ICE JAMMING OR ICE JAM INDUCED
FLOODING PLEASE NOTIFY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

$$

10






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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
500 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2004

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-281130-
ARTHUR-BLAINE-BOYD-BROWN-CHASE-CUSTER-DEUEL-EASTERN CHERRY-FRONTIER-
GARDEN-GARFIELD-GRANT-HAYES-HOLT-HOOKER-KEITH-KEYA PAHA-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LOUP-MCPHERSON-PERKINS-ROCK-SHERIDAN-THOMAS-WESTERN CHERRY-
WHEELER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AINSWORTH...ARNOLD...ARTHUR...BASSETT...
BIG SPRINGS...BREWSTER...BROKEN BOW...BURWELL...CHAPPELL...CURTIS...
GORDON...GRANT...HAY SPRINGS...HAYES CENTER...IMPERIAL...MULLEN...
NORTH PLATTE...O'NEILL...OGALLALA...OSHKOSH...RUSHVILLE...SPENCER...
SPRINGVIEW...STAPLETON...TAYLOR...THEDFORD...TRYON AND VALENTINE
500 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ON SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO EASTERN WYOMING. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATIING SNOWS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE NORTH AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM ANTIOCH TO MERRIMAN. ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM A DUSTING
ALONG THIS LINE...TO NEAR 3 INCHES ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
SHERIDAN COUNTY ARE POSSIBLE.

ON SUNDAY...A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BY SUNDAY EVENING. LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALY CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF
TO FLURRIES MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...DECENT POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH THE
LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS EAST OF A LINE FROM NORTH PLATTE TO VALENTINE.

AS IS THE CASE WITH ANY WINTER STORM...THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE KEY TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR. PERSONS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CLOSELY
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
BECOMES MORE DEFINED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...HOWEVER COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS
ARE REQUESTED TO PHONE IN SNOWFALL REPORTS THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE.

$$

BUTTLER


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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
414 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2004

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-281200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
414 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MAKE ITS MOVE IN TWO DIFFERENT ROUNDS. THE FIRST ONE IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND BRING SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN SOME SMALL HAIL, BUT NO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SECOND ROUND WILL MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, AND
BRING A SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LINE OF
ACTIVITY WILL BE LACKING INSTABILITY, BUT DUE TO STRONG WINDS IN THE
LOW LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IT MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH. 

THE RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT, GENERALLY
WEST OF A LINE FROM SALINA TO KINGMAN.  LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

$$
COX


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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
555 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2004

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-281200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FIRE DANGER WILL BE INCREASING TODAY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI AS WINDS PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS
RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ON SATURDAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE ALONG WITH DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO
THESE STORMS...THUS KEEPING THEM BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS IT EVOLVES THIS
WEEKEND. 

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION LIKELY WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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StormCrazyIowan
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#2 Postby StormCrazyIowan » Fri Feb 27, 2004 7:27 pm

My area as it looks should stay on the rainy end of this one (thank goodness!); maybe in the end switching over briefly but little or no accumulation expected. I definitely wouldn't be surprised to see areas to my SW getting a rumble or two of thunder, ahhh wouldn't it be nice!
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Guest

#3 Postby Guest » Fri Feb 27, 2004 7:36 pm

StormCrazyIowan wrote:My area as it looks should stay on the rainy end of this one (thank goodness!); maybe in the end switching over briefly but little or no accumulation expected. I definitely wouldn't be surprised to see areas to my SW getting a rumble or two of thunder, ahhh wouldn't it be nice!


Currently Quad Cities NWS does NOT have t-storms mentioned, but it would not surprise me if at least in areas from I-80 south recieve a mention come with the ZFPs on Saturday.
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Scott_inVA
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#4 Postby Scott_inVA » Fri Feb 27, 2004 9:43 pm

Timing is not perfect for SVR and the 0Z Eta has somewhat shifted the left entrance region east of sharpest UVV but shear looks decent as does mid- level diffluence. Dewpoints should hold so it looks good.

Don't think we're looking at an outbreak but clusters of SCells certainly is possible, even overnight tomorrow.

Fun to watch.

Scott
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