Good evening everyone. Severe weather potential will likely be on the increase across the middle of the country starting tonight and lasting through Sunday. While we're not expecting a huge severe weather outbreak, we could still see large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes possibly. The main threat appears to be damaging gusts.
Looking at the timing of this shows possible strong to severe thunderstorms across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandle later tonight after sunset as strong dynamic forcing approaches from the west. While strong cloud bearing shear will be present, capes are expected to be lower due to lack of decent moisture. However strong dynamic forcing will compensate that and most likely we'll see some isolated damaging downdrafts and some large hail from Oklahoma Panhandle southward especially into western Texas from Amarillo through Lubbock and Muleshoe, TX. This severe threat along with heavy rain will shift eastward into north central Texas and southwestern Oklahoma early Sunday morning. A damaging wind gust or two is still possible early in the morning along this line of storms.
On Sunday, surface low pressure will continue to deepen over the central Plains from north central Kansas northward into southern Nebraska. In addition, a strong upper trough situated over the four corners today will be situated over the central Plains by Sunday. Moisture and instability levels ahead of this system from northeastern Kansas southward through Oklahoma and east central Texas will likely not be the highest in the world. Once again though, dynamic forcing will compensate that just a bit with a damaging wind and hail threat. A tornado or two is possible.
As a result, this severe weather episode will definitely not be the biggest outbreak in the world as it's only late February. So isolated to scattered severe reports are possible. However this is still something to keep an eye on as every severe thunderstorm should be taken seriously whether it's tornadic or not. 2004 has been relatively quiet as far severe weather is concerned.
More updates later tonight.
Jim
Severe wx threat 2-28-04
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Severe wx threat 2-28-04
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